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Author: Mr. Evan Papageorgiou
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616357592
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 14
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Book Description
An interesting disconnect has taken shape between local currency- and hard currency-denominated bonds in emerging markets with respect to their portfolio flows and prices since the start of the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Emerging market assets have recovered sharply from the COVID-19 sell-off in 2020, but the post-pandemic recovery in 2021 has been highly uneven. This note seeks to answer why. Yields of local currency-denominated bonds have risen faster and are approaching their pandemic highs, while hard currency bond yields are still near their post-pandemic lows. Portfolio flows to local currency debt have similarly lagged flows to hard currency bonds. This disconnect is closely linked to the external environment and fiscal and inflationary pressures. Its evolution remains a key consideration for policymakers and investors, since local markets are the main source of funding for emerging markets. This note draws from the methodology developed in earlier Global Financial Stability Reports on fundamentals-based asset valuation models for funding costs and forecasting models for capital flows (using the at-risk framework). The results are consistent across models, indicating that local currency assets are significantly more sensitive to domestic fundamentals while hard currency assets are dependent on the external risk sentiment to a greater extent. This suggests that the post-pandemic, stressed domestic fundamentals have weighed on local currency bonds, partially offsetting the boost from supportive global risk sentiment. The analysis also highlights the risks emerging markets face from an asynchronous recovery and weak domestic fundamentals.
Author: Mr. Evan Papageorgiou
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616357592
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 14
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Book Description
An interesting disconnect has taken shape between local currency- and hard currency-denominated bonds in emerging markets with respect to their portfolio flows and prices since the start of the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Emerging market assets have recovered sharply from the COVID-19 sell-off in 2020, but the post-pandemic recovery in 2021 has been highly uneven. This note seeks to answer why. Yields of local currency-denominated bonds have risen faster and are approaching their pandemic highs, while hard currency bond yields are still near their post-pandemic lows. Portfolio flows to local currency debt have similarly lagged flows to hard currency bonds. This disconnect is closely linked to the external environment and fiscal and inflationary pressures. Its evolution remains a key consideration for policymakers and investors, since local markets are the main source of funding for emerging markets. This note draws from the methodology developed in earlier Global Financial Stability Reports on fundamentals-based asset valuation models for funding costs and forecasting models for capital flows (using the at-risk framework). The results are consistent across models, indicating that local currency assets are significantly more sensitive to domestic fundamentals while hard currency assets are dependent on the external risk sentiment to a greater extent. This suggests that the post-pandemic, stressed domestic fundamentals have weighed on local currency bonds, partially offsetting the boost from supportive global risk sentiment. The analysis also highlights the risks emerging markets face from an asynchronous recovery and weak domestic fundamentals.
Author: Valentin Ulrici
Publisher: Josef Eul Verlag GmbH
ISBN: 3899366409
Category : Bond market
Languages : en
Pages : 246
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Book Description
Author: Frank J. Fabozzi, CFA
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780471218364
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 392
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Book Description
An investor's guide to capitalizing on opportunities in the fixed income markets of emerging economies The fixed income market in emerging countries represents a new and potentially lucrative area of investment for professionals, but with great risk. Investing in Emerging Fixed Income Markets shows investors how to identify solid investment opportunities, assess the risk potential, and develop an investment approach to enhance long-term returns. Contributors to this book, among the leading experts from around the world, share their insights, advice, and knowledge on a range of topics that will help investors make the right decisions and choices when dealing with emerging fixed income markets. This fully updated and revised edition of the Handbook of Emerging Fixed Income and Currency Markets is the best guide for navigating the complicated world of emerging fixed income markets. Efstathia Pilarinu (Strasbourg, France) is a consultant specializing in the derivatives and emerging market fixed income areas. She has worked for several major Wall Street firms, including Salomon Brothers, Bankers Trust, Societe General. She has a doctorate degree and an MBA in finance from the University of Tennessee and an undergraduate degree in mathematics from the University of Patras, Greece. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. is proud to be the publisher of the esteemed Frank J. Fabozzi Series. Comprising nearly 100 titles--which include numerous bestsellers--The Frank J. Fabozzi Series is a key resource for finance professionals and academics, strategists and students, and investors. The series is overseen by its eponymous editor, whose expert instruction and presentation of new ideas have been at the forefront of financial publishing for over twenty years. His successful career has provided him with the knowledge, insight, and advice that has led to this comprehensive series. Frank J. Fabozzi, PhD, CFA, CPA, is Editor of the Journal of Portfolio Management, which is read by thousands of institutional investors, as well as editor or author of over 100 books on finance for the professional and academic markets. Currently, Dr. Fabozzi is an adjunct Professor of Finance at Yale University's School of Management and on the board of directors of the Guardian Life family of funds and the Black Rock complex of funds.
Author: Iva Petrova
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455252859
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This deterioration has widely been attributed to rapidly growing public debts and balance sheet risks. Our results indicate that in the long run, fundamentals are significant determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads, while in the short run, financial volatility is a more important determinant of sperads than fundamentals indicators.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513573926
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 157
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Book Description
This guidance note was prepared by International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group staff under a project undertaken with the support of grants from the Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening Initiative, (FIRST).The aim of the project was to deliver a report that provides emerging market and developing economies with guidance and a roadmap in developing their local currency bond markets (LCBMs). This note will also inform technical assistance missions in advising authorities on the formulation of policies to deepen LCBMs.
Author: Dirk Willer
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119599059
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 272
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Book Description
A practitioner's guide to finding alpha in fixed income trading in emerging markets Emerging fixed income markets are both large and fast growing. China, currently the second largest economy in the world, is predicted to overtake the United States by 2030. Chinese fixed income markets are worth more than $11 trillion USD and are being added to global fixed income indices starting in 2019. Access for foreigners to the Indian fixed income market, valued at almost 1trn USD, is also becoming easier – a trend repeated in emerging markets around the world. The move to include large Emerging Market (EM) fixed income markets into non-EM benchmarks requires non-EM specialists to understand EM fixed income. Trading Fixed Income in Emerging Markets examines the principle drivers for EM fixed income investing. This timely guide suggests a more systematic approach to EM fixed income trading with a focus on practical trading rules on how to generate alpha, assisting EM practitioners to limit market-share losses to passive investment vehicles. The definitive text on trading EM fixed income, this book is heavily data-driven – every trading rule is thoroughly back-tested over the last 10+ years. Case studies help readers identify and benefit from market regularities, while discussions of the business cycle and typical EM events inform and optimise trading strategies. Topics include portfolio construction, how to apply ESG principles to EM and the future of EM investing in the realm of Big Data and machine learning. Written by practitioners for practitioners, this book: Provides effective, immediately-accessible tools Covers all three fixed income asset classes: EMFX, EM local rates and EM credit Thoroughly analyses the impact of the global macro cycle on EM investing Examines the influence of the financial rise of China and its fixed income markets Includes case studies of trades that illustrate how markets typically behave in certain situations The first book of its kind, Trading Fixed Income in Emerging Markets: A Practitioner’s Guide is an indispensable resource for EM fund managers, analysts and strategists, sell-side professionals in EM and non-EM specialists considering activity in emerging markets.
Author: Ms.Ratna Sahay
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484356004
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 61
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Book Description
Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discussed its plans for tapering unconventional monetary policies, these emerging markets have experienced financial turbulence at the same that their domestic economic activity has slowed. This paper examines their experiences and policy responses and draws broad policy lessons. For emerging markets, good macroeconomic fundamentals matter, and early and decisive measures to strengthen macroeconomic policies and reduce vulnerabilities help dampen market reactions to external shocks. For advanced economies, clear and effective communication about the exit from unconventional monetary policy can and did help later to reduce the risk of excessive market volatility. And for the global community, enhanced global cooperation, including a strong global financial safety net, offers emerging markets effective protection against excessive volatility.
Author: Moorad Choudhry
Publisher: Butterworth-Heinemann
ISBN: 0080574939
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1152
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Book Description
The Bond and Money Markets is an invaluable reference to all aspects of fixed income markets and instruments. It is highly regarded as an introduction and an advanced text for professionals and graduate students.Features comprehensive coverage of: * Government and Corporate bonds, Eurobonds, callable bonds, convertibles * Asset-backed bonds including mortgages and CDOs * Derivative instruments including futures, swaps, options, structured products* Interest-rate risk, duration analysis, convexity, and the convexity bias * The money markets, repo markets, basis trading, and asset/liability management * Term structure models, estimating and interpreting the yield curve * Portfolio management and strategies,total return framework, constructing bond indices* A stand alone reference book on interest rate swaps, the money markets, financial market mathematics, interest-rate futures and technical analysis * Includes introductory coverage of very specialised topics (for which one previously required several texts) such as VaR, Asset & liability management and credit derivatives * Combines accessible style with advanced level topics
Author: Mr.Serkan Arslanalp
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484326547
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
This paper proposes an approach to track US$1 trillion of emerging market government debt held by foreign investors in local and hard currency, based on a similar approach that was used for advanced economies (Arslanalp and Tsuda, 2012). The estimates are constructed on a quarterly basis from 2004 to mid-2013 and are available along with the paper in an online dataset. We estimate that about half a trillion dollars of foreign flows went into emerging market government debt during 2010–12, mostly coming from foreign asset managers. Foreign central bank holdings have risen as well, but remain concentrated in a few countries: Brazil, China, Indonesia, Poland, Malaysia, Mexico, and South Africa. We also find that foreign investor flows to emerging markets were less differentiated during 2010–12 against the background of near-zero interest rates in advanced economies. The paper extends some of the indicators proposed in our earlier paper to show how the investor base data can be used to assess countries’ sensitivity to external funding shocks and to track foreign investors’ exposures to different markets within a global benchmark portfolio.
Author: Mark Shenkman
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN: 9780071376969
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 614
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Book Description
HIGH-YIELD BONDS provides state-of-the-art research, strategies, and toolsÑalongside the expert analysis of respected authorities including Edward Altman of New York UniversityÕs Salomon Center, Lea Carty of MoodyÕs Investor Service, Sam DeRosa-Farag of Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, Martin Fridson of Merrill Lynch & Company, Stuart Gilson of Harvard University, Robert Kricheff of CS First Boston, and Frank Reilly of the University of Notre DameÑto help you truly understand todayÕs high-yield market. For added value and ease of reference, this high-level one-volume encyclopedia is divided into seven sections detailing virtually every aspect of high-yield bond investment. They include: Market structureÑThe role of investment banks in security innovation and market development, evolution of analytical methodologies, and recent leveraged loan market developments; Security risk analysisÑHistorical bond default rates, real interest rate and default rate relationships, and new simulation methodologies for modeling credit quality; Security valuationÑImpact of seniority and security on bond pricing and return, important trading factors, and a Monte Carlo simulation methodology for valuing bonds and options in the context of correlated interest rate and credit risk; Market valuation modelsÑEconometric studies which detail the importance of monetary influences, risk-free interest rates, default rates, mutual fund flows, and seasonal fluctuations; Portfolio managementÑHistorical perspective and comparison to alternative investments, analysis of indices available to investors, and specific portfolio selection and risk management strategies of professional fund managers; Distressed security investingÑHistorical risk and return information, plus an academic overview of the market and decision criteria for uncovering and investing in securities with higher-than-average risk-adjusted returns; Corporate finance considerationsÑEmerging firmsÕ strategic choice between external debt and equity financing, as well as the choice of issuing public versus private (Rule-144a) securities. HIGH-YIELD BONDS provides extensive coverage of bond valuation and the construction and management of high-yield portfolios. Advanced Monte Carlo simulation models for the valuation of bonds and options on bonds as well as risk assessments on portfolios of bonds under conditions of correlated interest rate and credit risk are demonstrated. In todayÕs explosive environment of multiple new issues and high risk versus return relationships, it is paramount that you get advice from analysts and experts who have been influential in shaping and defining the market. HIGH-YIELD BONDS will provide you with a valuable reference to this fascinating and constantly changing class of securities, helping you assemble a stable, diversified portfolio of fixed income investments that provides the greatest returns and the lowest risks.
