Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making : Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2 Report PDF Download
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Atmospheric ozone
Languages : en
Pages : 96
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Atmospheric ozone
Languages : en
Pages : 96
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Book Description
Author: M. Granger Morgan
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1437912605
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 156
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Book Description
This report is one of 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products commissioned by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program as part of an effort to integrate fed. research on climate change and to facilitate a nat. understanding of the critical elements of climate change. Most of these reports are focused on specific substantive issues in climate science, impacts and related topics. In contrast, the focus of this report is methodological. This report provides a tutorial to the climate analysis and decision-making communities on current best practice in describing and analyzing uncertainty in climate-related problems. While the language is semi-technical, much of it should also be accessible to non-expert readers who are comfortable with the treatment of technical topics. Illus.
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309179858
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 66
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Book Description
This report reviews the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's new draft assessment product on characterizing and communicating uncertainty information for climate change decision making, one of 21 climate change assessment products that the program is developing to meet the requirements of the 1990 Global Change Research Act. Although the draft assessment is effective in discussing methods of characterizing uncertainty, it falls short in several ways. It is written for researchers involved in assessment efforts and will likely be of use to them, but does not address other key audiences, particularly policymakers, decision-makers, and members of the media and general public. In addition, it does not assess the full range of "best practice approaches" for characterizing, incorporating, and communicating uncertainty. These weaknesses were due in part to a change in the prospectus after the process had begun to include new target audiences and a different scope of work. It will take a substantial revision of the current draft or production of a companion document, both requiring additional authors, to address these issues.
Author: U. S. Climate Program
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN: 9781507809372
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This Product is one of 21 synthesis and assessment products (SAPs) commissioned by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) as part of an interagency effort to integrate federal research on climate change and to facilitate a national understanding of the critical elements of climate change. Most of these products are focused on specific substantive issues in climate science, impacts, and related topics. In contrast, the focus of this Product is methodological. Uncertainty is ubiquitous. Of course, the presence of uncertainty does not mean that people cannot act. As this Product notes, in our private lives, we decide where to go to college, what job to take, whom to marry, what home to buy, when and whether to have children, and countless other important choices, all in the face of large, and often, irreducible uncertainty. The same is true of decisions made by companies and by governments. Recent years have seen considerable progress in the development of improved methods to describe and deal with uncertainty. Progress in applying these methods has been uneven, although the field of climate science and impact assessment has done somewhat better than many others. The primary objective of this Product is to provide a tutorial for the climate analysis and decision-making communities on current best practice in describing and analyzing uncertainty in climate-related problems. While the language is largely semi-technical, much of it should also be accessible to non-expert readers who are comfortable with the treatment of technical topics at the level of journals such as Scientific American. Because the issue of how uncertainty is characterized and dealt with is of broad importance for public policy, we have also prepared a "Non-Technical Summary". Readers who lack the time or background to read the detailed Product may prefer to start there, and then sample from the main Product as they find topics they would like to learn about in greater depth.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Atmospheric ozone
Languages : en
Pages : 89
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Book Description
Author: Climate Change Science Program
Publisher: CreateSpace
ISBN: 9781500479169
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 92
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Book Description
The primary objective of this report is to provide a tutorial to the climate analysis and decision-making communities on current best practice in describing and analyzing uncertainty in climate-related problems. The report discusses a number of formulations of uncertainty and the various ways in which uncertainty can arise. It introduces several alternative perspectives on uncertainty including both the classical or frequentist view of probability, which defines probability as the property of a large number of repeated trials of some process such as the toss of a coin, and the subjectivist view, in which probability is an indication of degree of belief informed by all available evidence. A distinction is drawn between uncertainty about the value of specific quantities and uncertainty about the underlying functional relationships among key variables. Finally the report addresses a number of issues that arise in communicating about uncertainty. The report includes lessons from both the mitigation and adaptation domain. Reference: Granger Morgan, M., Dowlatabadi, H., Henrion, M., Keith, D., Lempert, R., McBride, S., Small, M. and Wilbanks, T. (Eds.) (2009) Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Decisionmaking, A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC, US.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 156
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Book Description
Author: Climate Change Science Program (U.S.)
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 288
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Book Description
Author: M. Granger Morgan
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1316884961
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 607
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Book Description
Many books instruct readers on how to use the tools of policy analysis. This book is different. Its primary focus is on helping readers to look critically at the strengths, limitations, and the underlying assumptions analysts make when they use standard tools or problem framings. Using examples, many of which involve issues in science and technology, the book exposes readers to some of the critical issues of taste, professional responsibility, ethics, and values that are associated with policy analysis and research. Topics covered include policy problems formulated in terms of utility maximization such as benefit-cost, decision, and multi-attribute analysis, issues in the valuation of intangibles, uncertainty in policy analysis, selected topics in risk analysis and communication, limitations and alternatives to the paradigm of utility maximization, issues in behavioral decision theory, issues related to organizations and multiple agents, and selected topics in policy advice and policy analysis for government.
Author: United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science and Technology (2007). Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 396
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Book Description
