Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making (SAP 5. 2) PDF Download
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Author: U. S. Climate Program
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN: 9781507809372
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This Product is one of 21 synthesis and assessment products (SAPs) commissioned by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) as part of an interagency effort to integrate federal research on climate change and to facilitate a national understanding of the critical elements of climate change. Most of these products are focused on specific substantive issues in climate science, impacts, and related topics. In contrast, the focus of this Product is methodological. Uncertainty is ubiquitous. Of course, the presence of uncertainty does not mean that people cannot act. As this Product notes, in our private lives, we decide where to go to college, what job to take, whom to marry, what home to buy, when and whether to have children, and countless other important choices, all in the face of large, and often, irreducible uncertainty. The same is true of decisions made by companies and by governments. Recent years have seen considerable progress in the development of improved methods to describe and deal with uncertainty. Progress in applying these methods has been uneven, although the field of climate science and impact assessment has done somewhat better than many others. The primary objective of this Product is to provide a tutorial for the climate analysis and decision-making communities on current best practice in describing and analyzing uncertainty in climate-related problems. While the language is largely semi-technical, much of it should also be accessible to non-expert readers who are comfortable with the treatment of technical topics at the level of journals such as Scientific American. Because the issue of how uncertainty is characterized and dealt with is of broad importance for public policy, we have also prepared a "Non-Technical Summary". Readers who lack the time or background to read the detailed Product may prefer to start there, and then sample from the main Product as they find topics they would like to learn about in greater depth.
Author: U. S. Climate Program
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN: 9781507809372
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This Product is one of 21 synthesis and assessment products (SAPs) commissioned by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) as part of an interagency effort to integrate federal research on climate change and to facilitate a national understanding of the critical elements of climate change. Most of these products are focused on specific substantive issues in climate science, impacts, and related topics. In contrast, the focus of this Product is methodological. Uncertainty is ubiquitous. Of course, the presence of uncertainty does not mean that people cannot act. As this Product notes, in our private lives, we decide where to go to college, what job to take, whom to marry, what home to buy, when and whether to have children, and countless other important choices, all in the face of large, and often, irreducible uncertainty. The same is true of decisions made by companies and by governments. Recent years have seen considerable progress in the development of improved methods to describe and deal with uncertainty. Progress in applying these methods has been uneven, although the field of climate science and impact assessment has done somewhat better than many others. The primary objective of this Product is to provide a tutorial for the climate analysis and decision-making communities on current best practice in describing and analyzing uncertainty in climate-related problems. While the language is largely semi-technical, much of it should also be accessible to non-expert readers who are comfortable with the treatment of technical topics at the level of journals such as Scientific American. Because the issue of how uncertainty is characterized and dealt with is of broad importance for public policy, we have also prepared a "Non-Technical Summary". Readers who lack the time or background to read the detailed Product may prefer to start there, and then sample from the main Product as they find topics they would like to learn about in greater depth.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Atmospheric ozone
Languages : en
Pages : 96
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Book Description
Author: M. Granger Morgan
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1437912605
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 156
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Book Description
This report is one of 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products commissioned by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program as part of an effort to integrate fed. research on climate change and to facilitate a nat. understanding of the critical elements of climate change. Most of these reports are focused on specific substantive issues in climate science, impacts and related topics. In contrast, the focus of this report is methodological. This report provides a tutorial to the climate analysis and decision-making communities on current best practice in describing and analyzing uncertainty in climate-related problems. While the language is semi-technical, much of it should also be accessible to non-expert readers who are comfortable with the treatment of technical topics. Illus.
Author: Climate Change Science Program
Publisher: CreateSpace
ISBN: 9781500479169
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 92
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Book Description
The primary objective of this report is to provide a tutorial to the climate analysis and decision-making communities on current best practice in describing and analyzing uncertainty in climate-related problems. The report discusses a number of formulations of uncertainty and the various ways in which uncertainty can arise. It introduces several alternative perspectives on uncertainty including both the classical or frequentist view of probability, which defines probability as the property of a large number of repeated trials of some process such as the toss of a coin, and the subjectivist view, in which probability is an indication of degree of belief informed by all available evidence. A distinction is drawn between uncertainty about the value of specific quantities and uncertainty about the underlying functional relationships among key variables. Finally the report addresses a number of issues that arise in communicating about uncertainty. The report includes lessons from both the mitigation and adaptation domain. Reference: Granger Morgan, M., Dowlatabadi, H., Henrion, M., Keith, D., Lempert, R., McBride, S., Small, M. and Wilbanks, T. (Eds.) (2009) Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Decisionmaking, A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC, US.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Atmospheric ozone
Languages : en
Pages : 89
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 156
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Book Description
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309179858
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 66
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Book Description
This report reviews the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's new draft assessment product on characterizing and communicating uncertainty information for climate change decision making, one of 21 climate change assessment products that the program is developing to meet the requirements of the 1990 Global Change Research Act. Although the draft assessment is effective in discussing methods of characterizing uncertainty, it falls short in several ways. It is written for researchers involved in assessment efforts and will likely be of use to them, but does not address other key audiences, particularly policymakers, decision-makers, and members of the media and general public. In addition, it does not assess the full range of "best practice approaches" for characterizing, incorporating, and communicating uncertainty. These weaknesses were due in part to a change in the prospectus after the process had begun to include new target audiences and a different scope of work. It will take a substantial revision of the current draft or production of a companion document, both requiring additional authors, to address these issues.
Author: Robin Gregory
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1444333410
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 315
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Book Description
This book outlines the creative process of making environmental management decisions using the approach called Structured Decision Making. It is a short introductory guide to this popular form of decision making and is aimed at environmental managers and scientists. This is a distinctly pragmatic label given to ways for helping individuals and groups think through tough multidimensional choices characterized by uncertain science, diverse stakeholders, and difficult tradeoffs. This is the everyday reality of environmental management, yet many important decisions currently are made on an ad hoc basis that lacks a solid value-based foundation, ignores key information, and results in selection of an inferior alternative. Making progress – in a way that is rigorous, inclusive, defensible and transparent – requires combining analytical methods drawn from the decision sciences and applied ecology with deliberative insights from cognitive psychology, facilitation and negotiation. The authors review key methods and discuss case-study examples based in their experiences in communities, boardrooms, and stakeholder meetings. The goal of this book is to lay out a compelling guide that will change how you think about making environmental decisions. Visit www.wiley.com/go/gregory/ to access the figures and tables from the book.
Author: Roger E Kasperson
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 113653900X
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 482
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Book Description
As progress towards a greater knowledge in sustainability science continues, the question of how better to integrate scientific progress with actual decisions made by practitioners remains paramount. This book aims to help close the gap between science and practice. Based on a two year collaborative project between Harvard and Clark Universities, the book takes as its focus the vulnerability and resilience of people around the world to the effects of environmental change, a mature area of research in which one might expect the gap between science and policy/practice to have been extensively bridged. The book presents analysis of past studies, interviews conducted with the producers and users of scientific knowledge, and case studies performed by leading scholars across a spectrum of international settings and political systems. Crucially, the authors identify new directions and tools for closing the gap between science and policy across a range of situations and societies. The result is an illuminating collection of studies and analyses that suggest to researchers, students, practitioners, and policy-makers alike how best to ensure that high quality environmental research informs good environmental policy and practice. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The editors and authors are grateful to Lu Ann Pacenka, who formatted the text of the book. The editors also wish to express their appreciation to Bill Clark and Nancy Dickson of Harvard University, who commissioned and provided oversight for the preparation of the volume. Both editors and authors wish to express their appreciation to the David and Lucile Packard Foundation for providing funds to support the project. Finally, the editors are grateful for the continuing support of the George Perkins Marsh Institute at Clark University. Published with Science in Society
Author: United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 124
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Book Description
