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Author: Stefan Zeugner
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451873492
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
Default prior choices fixing Zellner's g are predominant in the Bayesian Model Averaging literature, but tend to concentrate posterior mass on a tiny set of models. The paper demonstrates this supermodel effect and proposes to address it by a hyper-g prior, whose data-dependent shrinkage adapts posterior model distributions to data quality. Analytically, existing work on the hyper-g-prior is complemented by posterior expressions essential to fully Bayesian analysis and to sound numerical implementation. A simulation experiment illustrates the implications for posterior inference. Furthermore, an application to determinants of economic growth identifies several covariates whose robustness differs considerably from previous results.
Author: Stefan Zeugner
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451873492
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
Default prior choices fixing Zellner's g are predominant in the Bayesian Model Averaging literature, but tend to concentrate posterior mass on a tiny set of models. The paper demonstrates this supermodel effect and proposes to address it by a hyper-g prior, whose data-dependent shrinkage adapts posterior model distributions to data quality. Analytically, existing work on the hyper-g-prior is complemented by posterior expressions essential to fully Bayesian analysis and to sound numerical implementation. A simulation experiment illustrates the implications for posterior inference. Furthermore, an application to determinants of economic growth identifies several covariates whose robustness differs considerably from previous results.
Author: Stefan Zeugner
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electronic books
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Stefan Koeberle
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0821360132
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 295
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Book Description
Annotation This book brings together different perspectives on the role of conditionality, drawing on the experiences and lessons learned by the donor community, NGO critics and academic circles, and the borrowing countries, and provides a board overview of contemporary approaches to conditionality in today's aid architecture.
Author: Mohammad Saber Fallah Nezhad
Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN: 1789230926
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 142
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Book Description
This book is an introduction to the mathematical analysis of Bayesian decision-making when the state of the problem is unknown but further data about it can be obtained. The objective of such analysis is to determine the optimal decision or solution that is logically consistent with the preferences of the decision-maker, that can be analyzed using numerical utilities or criteria with the probabilities assigned to the possible state of the problem, such that these probabilities are updated by gathering new information.
Author: David Kaplan
Publisher: Guilford Publications
ISBN: 1462553559
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 275
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Book Description
The second edition of this practical book equips social science researchers to apply the latest Bayesian methodologies to their data analysis problems. It includes new chapters on model uncertainty, Bayesian variable selection and sparsity, and Bayesian workflow for statistical modeling. Clearly explaining frequentist and epistemic probability and prior distributions, the second edition emphasizes use of the open-source RStan software package. The text covers Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, Bayesian linear regression and generalized linear models, model evaluation and comparison, multilevel modeling, models for continuous and categorical latent variables, missing data, and more. Concepts are fully illustrated with worked-through examples from large-scale educational and social science databases, such as the Program for International Student Assessment and the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study. Annotated RStan code appears in screened boxes; the companion website (www.guilford.com/kaplan-materials) provides data sets and code for the book's examples. New to This Edition *Utilizes the R interface to Stan--faster and more stable than previously available Bayesian software--for most of the applications discussed. *Coverage of Hamiltonian MC; Cromwell’s rule; Jeffreys' prior; the LKJ prior for correlation matrices; model evaluation and model comparison, with a critique of the Bayesian information criterion; variational Bayes as an alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling; and other new topics. *Chapters on Bayesian variable selection and sparsity, model uncertainty and model averaging, and Bayesian workflow for statistical modeling.
Author: William S. Jewell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
In a 1974 paper, the author indicated how natural conjugate priors for multi-dimensional exponential family likelihoods could be enriched in certain cases through linear transformations of independent marginal priors. In particular, it was shown how the usual Normal-Wishart prior for the multinormal distribution with unknown mean vector and precision matrix could have the number of hyperparameters increased; thinness of the traditional prior is well-known. The new, linearly-dependent prior leads to full-dimensional credibility prediction formulae for the observational mean vector and covariance matrix, as contrasted with the simpler, self-dimensional forecasts obtained in prior literature. However, there was an error made in the sufficient-statistics term of the covariance predictor which is corrected in this work. In addition, this paper explains in detail the properties of the enriched multinormal prior and why revised statistics are needed, and interprets the important relationship between the linear transformation matrix and the matrix of credibility time constants. An enumeration of the additional number of hyperparameters needed for the enriched prior shows its value in modelling multinormal problems; it is shown that the estimation of these hyperparameters can be carried out in a natural way, in the space of the observable variables. (Author).
Author: Carlos A. Primo Braga
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0821385437
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 528
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Book Description
The book presents and discusses policy-relevant research on the current debt challenges which developing, emerging market and developed countries face. Its value added lies in the integrated approach of drawing on theoretical research and evidence from practitioners' experience in developing and emerging market countries.
Author: Mitchell O'Brien
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464803285
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 325
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Book Description
With international focus on good governance and parliamentary effectiveness, a standards-based approach involving benchmarks and assessment frameworks has emerged to evaluate parliament's performance and guide its reforms. The World Bank's has been a leader in the development of these frameworks, stewarding a global multi-stakeholder process aimed at enhancing consensus around parliamentary benchmarks and indicators with international organizations and parliaments across the world. The results so far, some of which are captured in this book, are encouraging: countries as diverse as Australia, Canada, Ghana, Sri Lanka, Tanzania and Zambia have used these frameworks for self-evaluation and to guide efficiency-driven reforms. Donors and practitioners, too, are finding the benchmarks useful as baselines against which they can assess the impact of their parliamentary strengthening programs. The World Bank itself is using these frameworks to surface the root causes of performance problems and explore how to engage with parliamentary institutions in order to achieve better results. The World Bank can identify opportunities to help improve the oversight function of parliament, thus holding governments to account, giving 'voice' to the poor and disenfranchised, and improving public policy formation in order to achieve a nation's development goals. In doing so, we are helping make parliaments themselves more accountable to citizens and more trusted by the public.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Macroeconomics
Languages : en
Pages : 1202
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Book Description
Author: Clifford Adelman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Education
Languages : en
Pages : 232
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Book Description
The Toolbox Revisited is a data essay that follows a nationally representative cohort of students from high school into postsecondary education, and asks what aspects of their formal schooling contribute to completing a bachelor's degree by their mid-20s. The universe of students is confined to those who attended a four-year college at any time, thus including students who started out in other types of institutions, particularly community colleges.
