Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models PDF full book. Access full book title Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models by Christopher A. Sims. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Christopher A. Sims
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Autoregression (Statistics)
Languages : en
Pages : 40
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Christopher A. Sims
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Autoregression (Statistics)
Languages : en
Pages : 40
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Mike West
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1475793650
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 720
Get Book Here
Book Description
In this book we are concerned with Bayesian learning and forecast ing in dynamic environments. We describe the structure and theory of classes of dynamic models, and their uses in Bayesian forecasting. The principles, models and methods of Bayesian forecasting have been developed extensively during the last twenty years. This devel opment has involved thorough investigation of mathematical and sta tistical aspects of forecasting models and related techniques. With this has come experience with application in a variety of areas in commercial and industrial, scientific and socio-economic fields. In deed much of the technical development has been driven by the needs of forecasting practitioners. As a result, there now exists a relatively complete statistical and mathematical framework, although much of this is either not properly documented or not easily accessible. Our primary goals in writing this book have been to present our view of this approach to modelling and forecasting, and to provide a rea sonably complete text for advanced university students and research workers. The text is primarily intended for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students in statistics and mathematics. In line with this objective we present thorough discussion of mathematical and statistical features of Bayesian analyses of dynamic models, with illustrations, examples and exercises in each Chapter.
Author: Gary Koop
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
ISBN: 160198362X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 104
Get Book Here
Book Description
Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics provides a survey of the Bayesian methods used in modern empirical macroeconomics. These models have been developed to address the fact that most questions of interest to empirical macroeconomists involve several variables and must be addressed using multivariate time series methods. Many different multivariate time series models have been used in macroeconomics, but Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models have been among the most popular. Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics reviews and extends the Bayesian literature on VARs, TVP-VARs and TVP-FAVARs with a focus on the practitioner. The authors go beyond simply defining each model, but specify how to use them in practice, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each and offer tips on when and why each model can be used.
Author: Giovanni Petris
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0387772383
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 258
Get Book Here
Book Description
State space models have gained tremendous popularity in recent years in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. After a detailed introduction to general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. Whenever possible it is shown how to compute estimates and forecasts in closed form; for more complex models, simulation techniques are used. A final chapter covers modern sequential Monte Carlo algorithms. The book illustrates all the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R. Many detailed examples based on real data sets are provided to show how to set up a specific model, estimate its parameters, and use it for forecasting. All the code used in the book is available online. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics or time series analysis is required, although familiarity with basic statistics and R is assumed.
Author: Daniel B. Rowe
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1420035266
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 350
Get Book Here
Book Description
Of the two primary approaches to the classic source separation problem, only one does not impose potentially unreasonable model and likelihood constraints: the Bayesian statistical approach. Bayesian methods incorporate the available information regarding the model parameters and not only allow estimation of the sources and mixing coefficients, but
Author: Peter Congdon
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470035935
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 596
Get Book Here
Book Description
Bayesian methods combine the evidence from the data at hand with previous quantitative knowledge to analyse practical problems in a wide range of areas. The calculations were previously complex, but it is now possible to routinely apply Bayesian methods due to advances in computing technology and the use of new sampling methods for estimating parameters. Such developments together with the availability of freeware such as WINBUGS and R have facilitated a rapid growth in the use of Bayesian methods, allowing their application in many scientific disciplines, including applied statistics, public health research, medical science, the social sciences and economics. Following the success of the first edition, this reworked and updated book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and analysis, with an emphasis on the principles of prior selection, identification and the interpretation of real data sets. The second edition: Provides an integrated presentation of theory, examples, applications and computer algorithms. Discusses the role of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in computing and estimation. Includes a wide range of interdisciplinary applications, and a large selection of worked examples from the health and social sciences. Features a comprehensive range of methodologies and modelling techniques, and examines model fitting in practice using Bayesian principles. Provides exercises designed to help reinforce the reader’s knowledge and a supplementary website containing data sets and relevant programs. Bayesian Statistical Modelling is ideal for researchers in applied statistics, medical science, public health and the social sciences, who will benefit greatly from the examples and applications featured. The book will also appeal to graduate students of applied statistics, data analysis and Bayesian methods, and will provide a great source of reference for both researchers and students. Praise for the First Edition: “It is a remarkable achievement to have carried out such a range of analysis on such a range of data sets. I found this book comprehensive and stimulating, and was thoroughly impressed with both the depth and the range of the discussions it contains.” – ISI - Short Book Reviews “This is an excellent introductory book on Bayesian modelling techniques and data analysis” – Biometrics “The book fills an important niche in the statistical literature and should be a very valuable resource for students and professionals who are utilizing Bayesian methods.” – Journal of Mathematical Psychology
Author: Kostas Triantafyllopoulos
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 303076124X
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 503
Get Book Here
Book Description
Bayesian Inference of State Space Models: Kalman Filtering and Beyond offers a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian estimation and forecasting for state space models. The celebrated Kalman filter, with its numerous extensions, takes centre stage in the book. Univariate and multivariate models, linear Gaussian, non-linear and non-Gaussian models are discussed with applications to signal processing, environmetrics, economics and systems engineering. Over the past years there has been a growing literature on Bayesian inference of state space models, focusing on multivariate models as well as on non-linear and non-Gaussian models. The availability of time series data in many fields of science and industry on the one hand, and the development of low-cost computational capabilities on the other, have resulted in a wealth of statistical methods aimed at parameter estimation and forecasting. This book brings together many of these methods, presenting an accessible and comprehensive introduction to state space models. A number of data sets from different disciplines are used to illustrate the methods and show how they are applied in practice. The R package BTSA, created for the book, includes many of the algorithms and examples presented. The book is essentially self-contained and includes a chapter summarising the prerequisites in undergraduate linear algebra, probability and statistics. An up-to-date and complete account of state space methods, illustrated by real-life data sets and R code, this textbook will appeal to a wide range of students and scientists, notably in the disciplines of statistics, systems engineering, signal processing, data science, finance and econometrics. With numerous exercises in each chapter, and prerequisite knowledge conveniently recalled, it is suitable for upper undergraduate and graduate courses.
Author: Mr.Peter F. Christoffersen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451848137
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
Get Book Here
Book Description
Imposing cointegration on a forecasting system, if cointegration is present, is believed to improve long-horizon forecasts. Contrary to this belief, at long horizons nothing is lost by ignoring cointegration when the forecasts are evaluated using standard multivariate forecast accuracy measures. In fact, simple univariate Box-Jenkins forecasts are just as accurate. Our results highlight a potentially important deficiency of standard forecast accuracy measures—they fail to value the maintenance of cointegrating relationships among variables—and we suggest alternatives that explicitly do so.
Author: Peter D. Congdon
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1584887214
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 606
Get Book Here
Book Description
The use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for estimating hierarchical models involves complex data structures and is often described as a revolutionary development. An intermediate-level treatment of Bayesian hierarchical models and their applications, Applied Bayesian Hierarchical Methods demonstrates the advantages of a Bayesian approach
Author: Theodore Simos
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 0429530307
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 1335
Get Book Here
Book Description
The International Conference of Computational Methods in Sciences and Engineering (ICCMSE) is unique in its kind. It regroups original contributions from all fields of the traditional Sciences, Mathematics, Physics, Chemistry, Biology, Medicine and all branches of Engineering. The aim of the conference is to bring together computational scientists from several disciplines in order to share methods and ideas. More than 370 extended abstracts have been submitted for consideration for presentation in ICCMSE 2004. From these, 289 extended abstracts have been selected after international peer review by at least two independent reviewers.
