Asset Pricing, Slow-moving Capital, Monetary Policy, and Inflation PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Asset Pricing, Slow-moving Capital, Monetary Policy, and Inflation PDF full book. Access full book title Asset Pricing, Slow-moving Capital, Monetary Policy, and Inflation by Matthias Fleckenstein. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Matthias Fleckenstein
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 259
Get Book Here
Book Description
This dissertation focuses on a major challenge to neoclassical asset pricing theory - the existence of persistent arbitrage mispricing in financial markets. Many scholars, e.g. Liu and Longstaff (2004) and Shleifer and Vishny (2007), have challenged the neoclassical no-arbitrage paradigm. However, the nature of arbitrage mispricing is not yet fully understood and requires further study. The first chapter 'The TIPS--Treasury Bond Puzzle', jointly written with Francis A. Longstaff and Hanno Lustig, analyzes the relative pricing between U.S. Treasury Bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). We document that Treasury bonds are consistently overpriced relative to TIPS. The price of a Treasury bond can exceed that of an inflation swapped TIPS issue exactly matching the cash flows of the Treasury bond by more than $20 per $100 notional amount. The relative mispricing of TIPS and Treasury bonds represents one of the largest examples of arbitrage ever documented and poses a major puzzle to classical asset pricing theory. We find direct evidence that the mispricing narrows as additional capital flows into the markets. This provides strong support for the slow-moving-capital explanation of arbitrage persistence. In the second chapter, I extend the analysis in the first chapter to the G7 government bond markets and document new stylized facts about the dynamics and determinants of arbitrage mispricing in and across financial markets. The new insight for the slow-moving capital theory is that capital available to specific types of arbitrageurs is significantly related to the inflation-linked-nominal bond mispricing (ILB mispricing). Specifically, returns of hedge funds following fixed income strategies strongly predict subsequent changes in ILB mispricing, whereas other hedge fund categories lack statistically significant forecasting power. Furthermore, I analyze the effects of monetary policy on arbitrage mispricing and find that central banks have exacerbated mispricing through large-scale asset purchase programs. The third chapter extends the analysis of inflation-linked securities markets. The magnitude of deflation risk and the economic and financial factors that contribute to deflation risk are not well studied. This chapter, jointly written with Francis A. Longstaff and Hanno Lustig, presents a new market-based approach for measuring deflation risk. This approach allows us to solve directly for the market's assessment of the probability of deflation for horizons of up to 30 years using the prices of inflation swaps and options. We find that the market prices the economic tail risk of deflation very similarly to other types of tail risks such as catastrophic insurance losses. In contrast, inflation tail risk has only a relatively small premium.
Author: Matthias Fleckenstein
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 259
Get Book Here
Book Description
This dissertation focuses on a major challenge to neoclassical asset pricing theory - the existence of persistent arbitrage mispricing in financial markets. Many scholars, e.g. Liu and Longstaff (2004) and Shleifer and Vishny (2007), have challenged the neoclassical no-arbitrage paradigm. However, the nature of arbitrage mispricing is not yet fully understood and requires further study. The first chapter 'The TIPS--Treasury Bond Puzzle', jointly written with Francis A. Longstaff and Hanno Lustig, analyzes the relative pricing between U.S. Treasury Bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). We document that Treasury bonds are consistently overpriced relative to TIPS. The price of a Treasury bond can exceed that of an inflation swapped TIPS issue exactly matching the cash flows of the Treasury bond by more than $20 per $100 notional amount. The relative mispricing of TIPS and Treasury bonds represents one of the largest examples of arbitrage ever documented and poses a major puzzle to classical asset pricing theory. We find direct evidence that the mispricing narrows as additional capital flows into the markets. This provides strong support for the slow-moving-capital explanation of arbitrage persistence. In the second chapter, I extend the analysis in the first chapter to the G7 government bond markets and document new stylized facts about the dynamics and determinants of arbitrage mispricing in and across financial markets. The new insight for the slow-moving capital theory is that capital available to specific types of arbitrageurs is significantly related to the inflation-linked-nominal bond mispricing (ILB mispricing). Specifically, returns of hedge funds following fixed income strategies strongly predict subsequent changes in ILB mispricing, whereas other hedge fund categories lack statistically significant forecasting power. Furthermore, I analyze the effects of monetary policy on arbitrage mispricing and find that central banks have exacerbated mispricing through large-scale asset purchase programs. The third chapter extends the analysis of inflation-linked securities markets. The magnitude of deflation risk and the economic and financial factors that contribute to deflation risk are not well studied. This chapter, jointly written with Francis A. Longstaff and Hanno Lustig, presents a new market-based approach for measuring deflation risk. This approach allows us to solve directly for the market's assessment of the probability of deflation for horizons of up to 30 years using the prices of inflation swaps and options. We find that the market prices the economic tail risk of deflation very similarly to other types of tail risks such as catastrophic insurance losses. In contrast, inflation tail risk has only a relatively small premium.
Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226092127
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 444
Get Book Here
Book Description
Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.
Author: Stephen Giovanni Cecchetti
Publisher: Centre for Economic Policy Research
ISBN: 9781898128533
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 164
Get Book Here
Book Description
Concludes the role of asset prices in monetary policy is one of the most important, and difficult, questions confronting central banks.
Author: Martin Feldstein
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226241807
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 500
Get Book Here
Book Description
Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.
Author: Ms.Deniz Igan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484343506
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 38
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper evaluates the strength of the balance sheet channel in the U.S. monetary policy transmission mechanism over the past three decades. Using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model on an expanded data set, including sectoral balance sheet variables, we show that the balance sheets of various economic agents act as important links in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Balance sheets of financial intermediaries, such as commercial banks, asset-backed-security issuers and, to a lesser extent, security brokers and dealers, shrink in response to monetary tightening, while money market fund assets grow. The balance sheet effects are comparable in magnitude to the traditional interest rate channel. However, their economic significance in the run-up to the recent financial crisis was small. Large increases in interest rates would have been needed to avert a rapid rise of house prices and an unsustainable expansion of mortgage credit, suggesting an important role for macroprudential policies.
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
Get Book Here
Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author: Jane Dokko
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Monetary policy
Languages : en
Pages : 76
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: William Curt Hunter
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262582537
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 650
Get Book Here
Book Description
A study of asset price bubbles and the implications for preventing financial instability.
Author: Bandi Kamaiah
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9811058105
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 227
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book discusses wide topics related to current issues in economic growth and development, international trade, macroeconomic and financial stability, inflation, monetary policy, banking, productivity, agriculture and food security. It is a collection of seventeen research papers selected based on their quality in terms of contemporary topic, newness in the methodology, and themes. All selected papers have followed an empirical approach to address research issues, and are segregated in five parts. Part one covers papers related to fiscal and price stability, monetary policy and economic growth. The second part contains works related to financial integration, capital market volatility and macroeconomic stability. Third part deals with issues related to international trade and economic growth. Part four covers topics related to productivity and firm performance. The final part discusses issues related to agriculture and food security. The book would be of interest to researchers, academicians as a ready reference on current issues in economics and finance.
Author: Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513529730
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54
Get Book Here
Book Description
Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.
