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Author: Baba-Serges Zango
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
A SWAT hydrological model is developed to evaluate the individual and combined impacts of urbanization and climate change on water quantity (discharge) and quality (N and P) of the watershed of Carp River in Ontario, Canada. Seven numerical experiments (scenarios) were developed to represent the different configurations of the watershed in terms of land use (either current or projected) and climate regime (current or future, observed or simulated). The reference period is 1990-2018, and the future period is 2021-2050. The 2017 land use was used to represent the reference period. The future land use is the projected 2050 land use obtained from the City of Ottawa. The future climate was obtained by downscaling the outputs of nine (9) Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5. The developed scenarios are the following: • S0o (baseline scenario) corresponding to the current land use map and the observed climate regime on the reference period • S0m is similar to S0o except that RCM outputs are used instead of the observed climate on the reference period • S1 corresponds to the future land use and historical climate regime on the reference period. • S0M45/S0M85 corresponds to the current land use and the future climate regime under RCP4.5 (S0M45) and RCP8.5 (S0M85) • S1M45/S1M85 corresponds to the future land use map and future climate regime under the two RCPs. The changes or impacts on quantity and quality in each scenario were estimated by comparing the results with the baseline scenarios S0o/m (reference) at two levels: globally (at the main outlet) and locally (at the outlet of an upstream sub-watershed). For a consistency purpose, S0o is used when assessing land-use change scenario while S0m was the reference in climate change and combined effects scenario. This allowed the comparison to be consistent with the same climate data frame. The results showed that climate change is likely to be the most dominant factor affecting discharge and nitrogen, while urbanization will control the quantity of phosphorus. Unsurprisingly, the combined effect had a more significant impact on water quantity and quality. However, the impact is not additive, and the relationship is not linear. Compared with S0, the annual average discharge increased by 1.57%, 5.49%, 7.52%, 6.75%, and 9.34% in S1, S0M45, S0M85, S1M45, and S1M85, respectively. In comparison, the change for annual N load was estimated at -1.88%, 29.62%, 2.03%, 24.84%, and -1.20% respectively. Change in annual average P was respectively 26.49%, 1.07%, -4.49%, 23.81% and 19.15%. Local impact assessment indicates the impact in upstream sub-watersheds may differ from the main outlet's impact in terms of magnitude and direction of change. Therefore, only considering global change may lead to a wrong interpretation of the impacts over the watershed. It is, therefore, necessary to evaluate the impacts at the local level as well.
Author: Baba-Serges Zango
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
A SWAT hydrological model is developed to evaluate the individual and combined impacts of urbanization and climate change on water quantity (discharge) and quality (N and P) of the watershed of Carp River in Ontario, Canada. Seven numerical experiments (scenarios) were developed to represent the different configurations of the watershed in terms of land use (either current or projected) and climate regime (current or future, observed or simulated). The reference period is 1990-2018, and the future period is 2021-2050. The 2017 land use was used to represent the reference period. The future land use is the projected 2050 land use obtained from the City of Ottawa. The future climate was obtained by downscaling the outputs of nine (9) Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5. The developed scenarios are the following: • S0o (baseline scenario) corresponding to the current land use map and the observed climate regime on the reference period • S0m is similar to S0o except that RCM outputs are used instead of the observed climate on the reference period • S1 corresponds to the future land use and historical climate regime on the reference period. • S0M45/S0M85 corresponds to the current land use and the future climate regime under RCP4.5 (S0M45) and RCP8.5 (S0M85) • S1M45/S1M85 corresponds to the future land use map and future climate regime under the two RCPs. The changes or impacts on quantity and quality in each scenario were estimated by comparing the results with the baseline scenarios S0o/m (reference) at two levels: globally (at the main outlet) and locally (at the outlet of an upstream sub-watershed). For a consistency purpose, S0o is used when assessing land-use change scenario while S0m was the reference in climate change and combined effects scenario. This allowed the comparison to be consistent with the same climate data frame. The results showed that climate change is likely to be the most dominant factor affecting discharge and nitrogen, while urbanization will control the quantity of phosphorus. Unsurprisingly, the combined effect had a more significant impact on water quantity and quality. However, the impact is not additive, and the relationship is not linear. Compared with S0, the annual average discharge increased by 1.57%, 5.49%, 7.52%, 6.75%, and 9.34% in S1, S0M45, S0M85, S1M45, and S1M85, respectively. In comparison, the change for annual N load was estimated at -1.88%, 29.62%, 2.03%, 24.84%, and -1.20% respectively. Change in annual average P was respectively 26.49%, 1.07%, -4.49%, 23.81% and 19.15%. Local impact assessment indicates the impact in upstream sub-watersheds may differ from the main outlet's impact in terms of magnitude and direction of change. Therefore, only considering global change may lead to a wrong interpretation of the impacts over the watershed. It is, therefore, necessary to evaluate the impacts at the local level as well.
Author: Mikołaj Piniewski
Publisher: diplom.de
ISBN: 3954897741
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 206
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Book Description
Globally, freshwater ecosystems are considered to be under severe threat from human pressure and climate change (Vörösmarty et al., 2010). Malmqvist and Rundle (2002) suggest that running water is the most impacted upon ecosystem on Earth due to being surrounded by dense human settlements and exploited for domestic and industrial water supply, irrigation, electricity generation and waste disposal. For example, the progressive over-exploitation of surface water resources for irrigation and urban uses in the Colorado River Basin has resulted most years in no runoff reaching the river’s delta (Gleick, 2003) [...]. Hereafter, natural and anthropogenic driving forces will be referred to as global and regional driving forces, respectively. The future effects of these forces up to the 2050s will be assessed in quantitative scenarios implemented in a hydrological model. It is believed that using this nomenclature (i.e. global and regional instead of natural and anthropogenic) better reflects considered environmental stressors, since global-scale driving forces will include not only climatic change but also changes in CO2, atmospheric carbon dioxide and plant physiological parameters, whereas regional-scale driving forces will include changes in land use, agriculture development and agricultural water management. Hence, the difference is that the first group of driving forces acts globally and independently on the study area, whereas the second group includes factors that are specific to the study area. Furthermore, in order to expand on the title of this thesis, impacts in the present study will be assessed not only on the flow regime as such, but also on its ecological functions, i.e. on the environmental flow regime. This is motivated mainly by the semi-natural character of the study area, that is unique in Poland and in Europe, but it also underlines the novelty of this thesis, as going beyond the pure impacts on the flow regime in a scenario-modelling framework is rare in hydrological science, if achieved at all.
Author: Luna Bharati
Publisher: IWMI
ISBN: 9290907444
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
This study assessed the variability of flows under present and ‘naturalized’ basin conditions in the Upper Ganges Basin (UGB). Furthermore, the PRECIS regional climate model (RCM) was used to generate climate projections for the UGB, with subsequent simulations of future river flows. Results show that the annual average precipitation, actual evapotranspiration (ET) and net water yields of the whole basin were 1,192 mm, 416 mm and 615 mm, respectively. Precipitation, ET and water yields were found to be higher in the forested and mountainous upper areas of the UGB. On an annual average, present-day flows throughout UGB are about 2-8% lower than under naturalized conditions. Dry and wet season flows under climate change (CC) scenario A2 are lower than that under present climate conditions at upstream locations, but higher at downstream locations of UGB. Flows under CC scenario B2 are systematically higher and lower than that under CC scenario A2 during dry and wet seasons, respectively.
Author: Saeid Eslamian
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1040020380
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 400
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Book Description
Climate change not only involves rising temperatures but it can also alter the hydro-meteorological parameters of a region and the corresponding changes emerging in the various biotic or abiotic environmental features. One of the results of climate change has been the impact on the sediment yield and its transport. These changes have implications for various other environmental components, particularly soils, water bodies, water quality, land productivity, sedimentation processes, glacier dynamics, and risk management strategies to name a few. This volume provides an overview of the fundamental processes and impacts of climate change on river basin management and examines issues related to soil erosion, sedimentation, and contaminants, as well as rainfall-runoff modeling and flood mitigation strategies. It also includes coverage of climate change fundamentals as well as chapters on related global treaties and policies.
Author: Saeid Eslamian
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1040020399
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 359
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Book Description
Climate change not only involves rising temperatures but it can also alter the hydro-meteorological parameters of a region and the corresponding changes emerging in the various biotic or abiotic environmental features. One of the results of climate change has been the impact on the sediment yield and its transport. These changes have implications for various other environmental components, particularly soils, water bodies, water quality, land productivity, sedimentation processes, glacier dynamics, and risk management strategies to name a few. This volume provides an examination of the technological approaches to water management, and the practical applications for remote sensing, satellite image processing, and advanced statistical methods, all which can be utilized to predict, monitor, and manage the effects of climate change on river basins.
Author: Robert Baidoc
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Watershed models are an important tool in regional planning and conservation efforts. They can provide valuable insight into the potential impacts of different land use changes and future climate change scenarios on water resources, which can lead to better, more informed decision making. Climate impacts, in particular, add a new level of uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies as the hydrological cycle is intimately linked with changes in atmospheric temperatures. The main objective of this study is to investigate the extent of long-term climate change on streamflow and stream temperature within an agriculturally defined watershed in Northern Ontario. For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was utilized to provide a better understanding of how hydrological processes in the Slate River Watershed will alter in response to long-term climate change scenarios. The SWAT model is a distributed/semi-distributed physically-based continuous model, developed by the USDA for the management of agricultural watersheds, and is currently one of the most popular watershed-based models used in climate change analysis of snowmelt dominated watersheds. Historic flow data was compared to a discharge model that reflected four climate models driven by SRES A1B and A2 through the middle and end of the century. Hydrology modelling was enhanced with stream temperature analysis to gain a comprehensive understanding of the extent of changing climate regimes on the Slate River. A linear regression approach representing a positive relationship between stream temperature and air temperature was used to determine the thermal classification of the Slate River. Our results indicated that the Slate River was well within the warm-water character regime. Unusual high stream temperatures were recorded at mid- August; these were accompanied by low water levels and a lack of riparian vegetative cover at the recording site, providing a possible explanation for such temperature anomalies. The results of the flow discharge modelling supported our hypothesis that tributaries within our ecosystem would experience increasing water stress in a warming climate as the average total discharge from the Slate River decreased in both climate scenarios at the middle and end of the century. Although the lack of accurate subsurface soil data within the study region prevented our discharge model from quantifying the changes in stream discharge, the strong correlation between the observed and simulated flow data as reflected by a 0.92 r2 statistic gave us confidence that discharge from the Slate River will continue to follow a decreasing trend as climate change persists into the future. This study aims to support the future endeavours of hydrologic modelling of watersheds in Northern Ontario by illustrating the current capabilities and limits of climate change analysis studies within this region.
Author: Thorsten Wagener
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781901502084
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 372
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Book Description
Author: Saeid Eslamian
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1040020402
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 431
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Book Description
Climate change not only involves rising temperatures but it can also alter the hydro-meteorological parameters of a region and the corresponding changes emerging in the various biotic or abiotic environmental features. One of the results of climate change has been the impact on the sediment yield and its transport. These changes have implications for various other environmental components, particularly soils, water bodies, water quality, land productivity, sedimentation processes, glacier dynamics, and risk management strategies to name a few. This volume presents a diverse collection of case studies from researchers across the globe examining the impacts of climate change on river basin management in various geographical, hydrological, and socioeconomic contexts. The case studies yield important insights that can inform strategies to build resilience and adapt river basins to a changing climate.
Author: Uttam Roy
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9812873449
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 97
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Book Description
The increase in GHG gases in the atmosphere due to expansions in industrial and vehicular concentration is attributed to warming of the climate world wide. The resultant change in climatic pattern can induce abnormalities in the hydrological cycle. As a result, the regular functionality of river watersheds will also be affected. This Brief highlights a new methodology to rank the watersheds in terms of its vulnerability to change in climate. This Brief introduces a Vulnerability Index which will be directly proportional to the climatic impacts of the watersheds. Analytical Hierarchy Process and Artificial Neural Networks are used in a cascading manner to develop the model for prediction of the vulnerability index.
Author: Ramakar Jha
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 303064202X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 544
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Book Description
This book provides insights and a capacity to understand the climate change phenomenon, its impact on water resources, and possible remedial measures. The impact of climate change on water resources is a global issue and cause for concern. Water resources in many countries are extremely stressed, and climate change along with burgeoning populations, the rise in living standards, and increasing demand on resources are factors which serve to exacerbate this stress. The chapters provide information on tools that will be useful to mitigate the adverse consequences of natural disasters. Fundamental to addressing these issues is hydrological modelling which is discussed in this book and ways to combat climate change as an important aspect of water resource management.
