Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Short-range Solar Irradiance Prediction PDF Download
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Author: Tyler McCandless
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The world's energy system will increasingly depend upon renewable energy sources, including solar power, due to the limitation of fossil fuel resources and their influence on global pollution and climate change. Solar power can provide substantial power supply to the grid; however, it is also a highly variable energy source. Changes in weather conditions, i.e. clouds, can cause rapid changes in solar power output, thus creating a challenge for utility companies to effectively use these renewable energy resources. The energy grid, which manages and distributes the energy, requires energy generation to meet the energy demand for an efficient system. Independent systems operators (ISOs) and regional transmission organizations (RTOs) monitor the energy load, direct power generation from utilities, define operating limits and create contingency plans. ISOs, RTOs and utilities will require solar irradiance forecasts to effectively and efficiently balance the energy grid as the penetration of solar power increases. This study presents multiple nonlinear forecasting techniques to predict both the magnitude of the solar irradiance and its expected variability.The temporal irradiance variability is forecast for the temporal standard deviation of the Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) at eight sites in the Sacramento Valley of California and the spatial irradiance variability is forecast for the standard deviation across those same sites. A model tree with a nearest neighbor option was trained to predict the irradiance variability. The resulting artificial intelligence model reduces the mean absolute error between 10% and 55% compared to using climatological average values of the temporal and spatial GHI standard deviation. A data denial experiment shows including surface weather observations improves forecasting skill by approximately 10%. These results indicate the model tree technique can be applied in real time to produce solar variability forecasts.iiiiv Next, a cloud regime-dependent short-range solar irradiance forecasting system isdeveloped to provide 15-min average clearness index forecasts for 15-min, 60-min, 120-min and 180-min lead-times. A k-means algorithm identifies the cloud regime based on surface weather observations and irradiance observations. Then, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are trained to predict the clearness index. This regime-dependent system makes a more accurate deterministic forecast than a global ANN or clearness index persistence and produces more accurate predictions of expected irradiance variability than assuming climatological average variability.Lastly, regime-identification methods that also incorporate GOES-East satellite data both as inputs to the k-means regime algorithm and as predictors to the ANNs are explored. Several cloud-regime dependent short-range solar irradiance forecasting systems (RD-ANN) are tested to make 15-min average clearness index predictions for 15-min, 60-min, 120-min and 180-min forecast lead-times. The RD-ANN system that shows the lowest forecast error on independent test data classifies cloud regimes with a k-means algorithm based on a combination of surface weather observations, irradiance observations and GOES-East satellite data. The ANNs are then trained on each cloud regime to predict the clearness index. This RD-ANN system improves over the mean absolute error of the baseline clearness index persistence predictions by 1.0%, 21.0%, 26.4% and 27.4% at the 15-min, 60-min, 120-min and 180-min forecast lead-times. Additionally, a version of this method configured to predict the irradiance variability predicts irradiance variability more accurately than a smart persistence technique.Using statistical techniques allows for improved deterministic solar irradiance predictions as well as improved spatial and temporal solar irradiance variability predictions. The combination of deterministic predictions of irradiance and irradiance variability may offer utilityv companies and systems operators the necessary information to deliver services to clients on theevolving power grid.
Author: Tyler McCandless
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The world's energy system will increasingly depend upon renewable energy sources, including solar power, due to the limitation of fossil fuel resources and their influence on global pollution and climate change. Solar power can provide substantial power supply to the grid; however, it is also a highly variable energy source. Changes in weather conditions, i.e. clouds, can cause rapid changes in solar power output, thus creating a challenge for utility companies to effectively use these renewable energy resources. The energy grid, which manages and distributes the energy, requires energy generation to meet the energy demand for an efficient system. Independent systems operators (ISOs) and regional transmission organizations (RTOs) monitor the energy load, direct power generation from utilities, define operating limits and create contingency plans. ISOs, RTOs and utilities will require solar irradiance forecasts to effectively and efficiently balance the energy grid as the penetration of solar power increases. This study presents multiple nonlinear forecasting techniques to predict both the magnitude of the solar irradiance and its expected variability.The temporal irradiance variability is forecast for the temporal standard deviation of the Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) at eight sites in the Sacramento Valley of California and the spatial irradiance variability is forecast for the standard deviation across those same sites. A model tree with a nearest neighbor option was trained to predict the irradiance variability. The resulting artificial intelligence model reduces the mean absolute error between 10% and 55% compared to using climatological average values of the temporal and spatial GHI standard deviation. A data denial experiment shows including surface weather observations improves forecasting skill by approximately 10%. These results indicate the model tree technique can be applied in real time to produce solar variability forecasts.iiiiv Next, a cloud regime-dependent short-range solar irradiance forecasting system isdeveloped to provide 15-min average clearness index forecasts for 15-min, 60-min, 120-min and 180-min lead-times. A k-means algorithm identifies the cloud regime based on surface weather observations and irradiance observations. Then, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are trained to predict the clearness index. This regime-dependent system makes a more accurate deterministic forecast than a global ANN or clearness index persistence and produces more accurate predictions of expected irradiance variability than assuming climatological average variability.Lastly, regime-identification methods that also incorporate GOES-East satellite data both as inputs to the k-means regime algorithm and as predictors to the ANNs are explored. Several cloud-regime dependent short-range solar irradiance forecasting systems (RD-ANN) are tested to make 15-min average clearness index predictions for 15-min, 60-min, 120-min and 180-min forecast lead-times. The RD-ANN system that shows the lowest forecast error on independent test data classifies cloud regimes with a k-means algorithm based on a combination of surface weather observations, irradiance observations and GOES-East satellite data. The ANNs are then trained on each cloud regime to predict the clearness index. This RD-ANN system improves over the mean absolute error of the baseline clearness index persistence predictions by 1.0%, 21.0%, 26.4% and 27.4% at the 15-min, 60-min, 120-min and 180-min forecast lead-times. Additionally, a version of this method configured to predict the irradiance variability predicts irradiance variability more accurately than a smart persistence technique.Using statistical techniques allows for improved deterministic solar irradiance predictions as well as improved spatial and temporal solar irradiance variability predictions. The combination of deterministic predictions of irradiance and irradiance variability may offer utilityv companies and systems operators the necessary information to deliver services to clients on theevolving power grid.
Author: Marius Paulescu
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1447146492
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 364
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Book Description
In the past decade, there has been a substantial increase of grid-feeding photovoltaic applications, thus raising the importance of solar electricity in the energy mix. This trend is expected to continue and may even increase. Apart from the high initial investment cost, the fluctuating nature of the solar resource raises particular insertion problems in electrical networks. Proper grid managing demands short- and long-time forecasting of solar power plant output. Weather modeling and forecasting of PV systems operation is focused on this issue. Models for predicting the state of the sky, nowcasting solar irradiance and forecasting solar irradiation are studied and exemplified. Statistical as well as artificial intelligence methods are described. The efficiency of photovoltaic converters is assessed for any weather conditions. Weather modeling and forecasting of PV systems operation is written for researchers, engineers, physicists and students interested in PV systems design and utilization. “p>
Author: Jan Kleissl
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 012397772X
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 503
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Book Description
Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment is a vital text for solar energy professionals, addressing a critical gap in the core literature of the field. As major barriers to solar energy implementation, such as materials cost and low conversion efficiency, continue to fall, issues of intermittency and reliability have come to the fore. Scrutiny from solar project developers and their financiers on the accuracy of long-term resource projections and grid operators’ concerns about variable short-term power generation have made the field of solar forecasting and resource assessment pivotally important. This volume provides an authoritative voice on the topic, incorporating contributions from an internationally recognized group of top authors from both industry and academia, focused on providing information from underlying scientific fundamentals to practical applications and emphasizing the latest technological developments driving this discipline forward. The only reference dedicated to forecasting and assessing solar resources enables a complete understanding of the state of the art from the world’s most renowned experts. Demonstrates how to derive reliable data on solar resource availability and variability at specific locations to support accurate prediction of solar plant performance and attendant financial analysis. Provides cutting-edge information on recent advances in solar forecasting through monitoring, satellite and ground remote sensing, and numerical weather prediction.
Author: Viorel Badescu
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540774556
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 537
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Book Description
Solar radiation data is important for a wide range of applications, e.g. in engineering, agriculture, health sector, and in many fields of the natural sciences. A few examples showing the diversity of applications may include: architecture and building design, e.g. air conditioning and cooling systems; solar heating system design and use; solar power generation; evaporation and irrigation; calculation of water requirements for crops; monitoring plant growth and disease control; skin cancer research.
Author: Alberto Eduardo Gabás Royo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Accurate solar irradiance forecasting is essential for minimizing operational costs of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation as it is commonly used to predict the power output. This thesis presents and compares three different machine learning approaches of solar irradiance forecasting: Random Forest (RF), Feedforward Neural Networks (FNNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Each model was tested on two different forecasts: the next hour average and the hourly day-ahead averages. The machine learning algorithms were trained and tested on data from a weather station located at Tampere University (TAU) in Tampere, Finland. Data were preprocessed before training the algorithms and the relevant features were selected. Moreover, Grid Search and Random Search techniques were used along with multiple train and validation splits to find the optimal hyperparameters for each machine learning algorithm. Persistence model is set as a baseline model for comparison while RMSE and MAE are used to quantify the prediction error. For the next hour forecast, LSTM achieved the highest accuracy in terms of RMSE (76.14 W/m2 ), 2.1% and 1.1% better than RF and FNN respectively. Instead, FNN generally produced the best results in the day-ahead forecast. In all models, the prediction error increases as the forecast horizon increases until it stabilizes at 10 hours approximately. Further, the error keeps increasing but slower. Besides, the next hour forecast models were able to predict considerably better the next hour solar irradiance than the day-ahead forecast models.
Author: Ajay Kumar Vyas
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119761697
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 276
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Book Description
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS Renewable energy systems, including solar, wind, biodiesel, hybrid energy, and other relevant types, have numerous advantages compared to their conventional counterparts. This book presents the application of machine learning and deep learning techniques for renewable energy system modeling, forecasting, and optimization for efficient system design. Due to the importance of renewable energy in today’s world, this book was designed to enhance the reader’s knowledge based on current developments in the field. For instance, the extraction and selection of machine learning algorithms for renewable energy systems, forecasting of wind and solar radiation are featured in the book. Also highlighted are intelligent data, renewable energy informatics systems based on supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA); and intelligent condition monitoring of solar and wind energy systems. Moreover, an AI-based system for real-time decision-making for renewable energy systems is presented; and also demonstrated is the prediction of energy consumption in green buildings using machine learning. The chapter authors also provide both experimental and real datasets with great potential in the renewable energy sector, which apply machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) algorithms that will be helpful for economic and environmental forecasting of the renewable energy business. Audience The primary target audience includes research scholars, industry engineers, and graduate students working in renewable energy, electrical engineering, machine learning, information & communication technology.
Author: Anuradha Tomar
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9811964904
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 208
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Book Description
This book provides an introduction to forecasting methods for renewable energy sources integrated with existing grid. It consists of two sections; the first one is on the generation side forecasting methods, while the second section deals with the different ways of load forecasting. It broadly includes artificial intelligence, machine learning, hybrid techniques and other state-of-the-art techniques for renewable energy and load predictions. The book reflects the state of the art in distributed generation system and future microgrids and covers theory, algorithms, simulations and case studies. It offers invaluable insights through this valuable resource to students and researchers working in the fields of renewable energy, integration of renewable energy with existing grid and electrical distribution network.
Author: Adel Mellit
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 012820642X
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 376
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Book Description
Handbook of Artificial Intelligence Techniques in Photovoltaic Systems: Modelling, Control, Optimization, Forecasting and Fault Diagnosis provides readers with a comprehensive and detailed overview of the role of artificial intelligence in PV systems. Covering up-to-date research and methods on how, when and why to use and apply AI techniques in solving most photovoltaic problems, this book will serve as a complete reference in applying intelligent techniques and algorithms to increase PV system efficiency. Sections cover problem-solving data for challenges, including optimization, advanced control, output power forecasting, fault detection identification and localization, and more. Supported by the use of MATLAB and Simulink examples, this comprehensive illustration of AI-techniques and their applications in photovoltaic systems will provide valuable guidance for scientists and researchers working in this area. Includes intelligent methods in real-time using reconfigurable circuits FPGAs, DSPs and MCs Discusses the newest trends in AI forecasting, optimization and control applications Features MATLAB and Simulink examples highlighted throughout
Author: Alberto Troccoli
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461492211
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 527
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Book Description
It is the purpose of this book to provide the meteorological knowledge and tools to improve the risk management of energy industry decisions, ranging from the long term finance and engineering planning assessments to the short term operational measures for scheduling and maintenance. Most of the chapters in this book are based on presentations given at the inaugural International Conference Energy & Meteorology (ICEM), held in the Gold Coast, Australia, 8-11 November 2011. The main aim of the conference was to strengthen the link between Energy and Meteorology, so as to make meteorological information more relevant to the planning and operations of the energy sector. The ultimate goal would be to make the best use of weather and climate data in order to achieve a more efficient use of energy sources. This book seeks to realise the same objective.
Author: Josalin Jemima J
Publisher: Mohammed Abdul Sattar
ISBN:
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Economic development is impacted significantly by conventional energy sources, which are hazardous to humans and the environment. To meet the energy demand and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the world is shifting towards alternate renewable energy sources. Photovoltaics (PV) is the most common distributed energy source for microgrid formation and one of the world's top renewable energy sources because of their modular design, minimal operational noise, and ease of maintenance. Solar photovoltaic systems, which are photovoltaic panels that turn sunlight into electricity, are one of the most common renewable energy sources. PV production is strongly dependent on solar irradiation, temperature, and other weather conditions. Predicting solar irradiance implies predicting solar power generation one or more steps ahead of time. Prediction increases photovoltaic system development and operation while providing numerous economic benefits to energy suppliers. There are numerous applications that employ prediction to improve power grid operation and planning, with the appropriate time-resolution of the forecast. Stability and regulation necessitate knowledge of solar irradiation over the following few seconds. Reserve management and load following require knowledge of solar irradiation for the next several minutes or hours. To function properly, scheduling and unit commitment requires knowledge about the next few days of solar irradiation. It is crucial to precisely measure solar irradiation since the major issue with solar energy is that it fluctuates because of its variability. Grid operators can control the demand and supply of power and construct the best solar PV plant with the help of accurate and reliable solar irradiance predictions. Electric utilities must generate enough energy to balance supply and demand. The electric sector has consequently focused on Solar PV forecasting to assist its management system, which is crucial for the growth of additional power generation, such as microgrids. Forecasting solar irradiance has always been important to renewable energy generation since solar energy generation is location and time-specific. When the estimated solar generation is available, the grid will function more consistently in unpredictable situations since solar energy generates some quantity of power every day of the year, even on cloudy days.
