Arc Partner-country Statistics Useful for Estimating " Missing" Trade Data PDF Download
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Author: J. Alexander Yeats
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Bilateral Trade
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
Abstract: Because many developing countries fail to report trade statistics to the United Nations, there has been an interest in using partner-country data to fill these information gaps. The author used partner-country statistics for 30 developing countries to estimate actual (concealed) trade data and analyzed the magnitude of the resulting errors. The results indicate that partner-country data are unreliable even for estimating trade in broad aggregate product groups such as foodstuffs, fuels, or manufactures. Moreover, tests show that the reliability of partner-country statistics degenerates sharply as one moves to more finely distinguished trade categories (lower-level SITCs). Equally disturbing, about one-quarter of the partner-country comparisons take the wrong sign. That is, one country's reported free-on-board (f.o.b.) exports exceed the reported cost-insurance-freight (c.i.f.) value of partners' imports. Aside from product composition, tests show that partner-country data are equally inaccurate for estimating the direction of trade. Why are partner-country data so unreliable for approximating missing data? Evidence shows: 1) problems in reporting or processing COMTRADE data; 2) valuation differences (f.o.b. versus c.i.f.) for imports and exports; 3) problems relating to entrepot trade, or exports originating in export processing zones; 4) problems associated with exchange-rate changes; 5) intentional or unintentional misclassification of products; 6) efforts to conceal trade data for proprietary reasons; and 7) financial incentives to purposely falsify trade data. The author concludes that efforts to improve the general quality, or availability, of trade statistics using partner-country data holds little or no promise, although this information may be useful in specific cases where the trade statistics of a certain country are known to incorporate major errors. Significant progress in ugrading the accuracy, and coverage, of trade statistics can be achieved only by improving each country's procedures for data collection.
Author: J. Alexander Yeats
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Bilateral Trade
Languages : en
Pages : 44
Get Book Here
Book Description
Abstract: Because many developing countries fail to report trade statistics to the United Nations, there has been an interest in using partner-country data to fill these information gaps. The author used partner-country statistics for 30 developing countries to estimate actual (concealed) trade data and analyzed the magnitude of the resulting errors. The results indicate that partner-country data are unreliable even for estimating trade in broad aggregate product groups such as foodstuffs, fuels, or manufactures. Moreover, tests show that the reliability of partner-country statistics degenerates sharply as one moves to more finely distinguished trade categories (lower-level SITCs). Equally disturbing, about one-quarter of the partner-country comparisons take the wrong sign. That is, one country's reported free-on-board (f.o.b.) exports exceed the reported cost-insurance-freight (c.i.f.) value of partners' imports. Aside from product composition, tests show that partner-country data are equally inaccurate for estimating the direction of trade. Why are partner-country data so unreliable for approximating missing data? Evidence shows: 1) problems in reporting or processing COMTRADE data; 2) valuation differences (f.o.b. versus c.i.f.) for imports and exports; 3) problems relating to entrepot trade, or exports originating in export processing zones; 4) problems associated with exchange-rate changes; 5) intentional or unintentional misclassification of products; 6) efforts to conceal trade data for proprietary reasons; and 7) financial incentives to purposely falsify trade data. The author concludes that efforts to improve the general quality, or availability, of trade statistics using partner-country data holds little or no promise, although this information may be useful in specific cases where the trade statistics of a certain country are known to incorporate major errors. Significant progress in ugrading the accuracy, and coverage, of trade statistics can be achieved only by improving each country's procedures for data collection.
Author: Alexander J. Yeats
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
Because many developing countries fail to report trade statistics to the United Nations, there has been an interest in using partner-country data to fill these information gaps. The author used partner-country statistics for 30 developing countries to quot;estimatequot; actual (concealed) trade data and analyzed the magnitude of the resulting errors. The results indicate that partner-country data are unreliable even for estimating trade in broad aggregate product groups such as foodstuffs, fuels, or manufactures. Moreover, tests show that the reliability of partner-country statistics degenerates sharply as one moves to more finely distinguished trade categories (lower-level SITCs). Equally disturbing, about one-quarter of the partner-country comparisons take the wrong sign. That is, one country's reported free-on-board (f.o.b.) exports exceed the reported cost-insurance-freight (c.i.f.) value of partners' imports. Aside from product composition, tests show that partner-country data are equally inaccurate for estimating the direction of trade. Why are partner-country data so unreliable for approximating quot;missingquot; data? Evidence shows: 1) problems in reporting or processing COMTRADE data; 2) valuation differences (f.o.b. versus c.i.f.) for imports and exports; 3) problems relating to entrepot trade, or exports originating in export processing zones; 4) problems associated with exchange-rate changes; 5) intentional or unintentional misclassification of products; 6) efforts to quot;concealquot; trade data for proprietary reasons; and 7) financial incentives to purposely falsify trade data. The author concludes that efforts to improve the general quality, or availability, of trade statistics using partner-country data holds little or no promise, although this information may be useful in specific cases where the trade statistics of a certain country are known to incorporate major errors. Significant progress in ugrading the accuracy, and coverage, of trade statistics can be achieved only by improving each country's procedures for data collection.
Author: Mr.Marco Marini
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 148433910X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 57
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Book Description
In March 2017, the IMF published an upgrade of its Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) dataset. This paper documents the new methodology that has been developed to estimate missing observations of bilateral trade statistics on a monthly basis. The new estimation procedure is founded on a benchmarking method that produces monthly estimates based on official trade statistics by partner country reported at different times and frequencies. In this paper we describe the new estimation methodology. Additional data sources have also been incorporated. We also assess the impact of the new estimates on trade measurement in DOTS at global, regional, and country-specific levels. Finally, we suggest some developments of DOTS to strenghten its relevance for IMF bilateral and multilateral surveillance.
Author: Harry Bowen
Publisher: University of Michigan Press
ISBN: 9780472066704
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 684
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Book Description
An international trade text that integrates theoretical and applied methods
Author: International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484329813
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1225
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Book Description
This paper analyzes In the World and Regional Tables, missing data are estimated for countries by IMF staff to the extent possible. The estimation procedure is based largely on the use of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) database in BPM6 format. The BPM6-based WEO provides expanded data coverage for some series and facilitates an improved basis for estimation procedures used in BOPSY. However, data published in BOPSY may differ from balance-of-payments data published in the WEO mainly due to timing and estimation methodology differences. The following outlines the methodology used to gap-fill balance-of-payments data where country data are missing. For goods and services transactions, where data gaps exist in years prior to estimates are made by applying the growth rates derived from the WEO for the missing year(s) to the latest reported annual data (debits and credits). In cases where there are gaps for the entire period, WEO data are inserted directly.
Author: Christopher Nelson
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3031200365
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 191
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Book Description
This book addresses ways that governments, international organizations, and other stakeholders can utilize data to uncover illicit trade in materials and equipment that could be used to support chemical, biological, nuclear, and advanced conventional weapons systems. Key concepts of strategic trade are introduced, including examples of strategic goods and their potential uses in weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and weapons systems, the interplay between the Harmonized System and strategic trade control regimes, and the data available for analysis in the field. Innovative, yet practical methodologies to analyze strategic trade cover the use of crime scripts, risk assessment indicators, mirror statistics, market share analysis, and transshipment and re-export analysis. There are also chapters on leading-edge techniques involving machine learning and network analysis that have shown promise in other areas of crime and illicit trade investigations. Each chapter provides step-by-step instructions on applying the technique, numerous case studies and examples, and discussions of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. This volume is designed to provide all types of analysts with practical pathways for understanding, detecting, and disrupting illicit procurement of materials and equipment needed to produce WMDs and advanced weapons.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513535277
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1219
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Book Description
This annual issue of Balance-of-Payments Statistics Yearbook (BOPSY) contains two sections: World and Regional Tables, and Country Tables. The first section presents 21 world and regional tables for major components of the balance of payments, net International Investment Position (IIP), and total financial assets and total liabilities for the IIP. The second section provides detailed tables on balance-of-payments statistics for 191 economies and IIP data for 150 economies. Volume 66 of the BOPSY, published by the IMF, contains balance of payments and international investment position (IIP) data in accordance with the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual. Data are presented for 2007 forward. The IMF is grateful for countries’ cooperation in providing comprehensive, timely, and regular data to the IMF for re-dissemination. These data support the IMF’s Statistics Department in its efforts to respond to the analytical and policy needs of the IMF, member countries, and the international community.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513594028
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1227
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Book Description
Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook 2016
Author: International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 148431543X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1167
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Book Description
Composed of international economic transactions data, BOPS delivers critical statistical information that covers: total goods, services, income, and current transfers an economy receives from or provides to the rest of the world; capital transfers and changes in each economy’s external financial claims and liabilities; tables featuring area and world totals of balance of payments; and IIP components and aggregates. The IMF Balance of Payments Statistics contains over 200,000 quarterly and annual time series data. The data include aggregate as well as detailed information in the form of analytical and standard component presentations for countries. Additional documentation is included with descriptions of methodologies, compilation practices, and data sources used by individual member countries in compiling their balance of payments and international investment position statistics.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484375440
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1195
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Book Description
The Balance of Payments Statistics (BOPS) Yearbook provides tables of data, featuring regional and world totals of balance of payments and IIP components and aggregates as well as detailed information in the form of analytical and standard component presentations for economies. It is compiled in accordance with the IMF’s Balance of Payments Manual (BPM6). The Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook is usually published in December.
