Are Labor Market Indicators Telling the Truth? Role of Measurement Error in the U.S. Current Population Survey

Are Labor Market Indicators Telling the Truth? Role of Measurement Error in the U.S. Current Population Survey PDF Author: Mr.Ippei Shibata
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498300456
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40

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Book Description
Labor market indicators are critical for policymakers, but measurement error in labor force survey data is known to be substantial. In this paper, I quantify the implications of classification errors in the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS), in which respondents misreport their true labor force status. Once I correct for measurement error using a latent variable approach, the unemployment rate is on average 0.8 percentage points (ppts) higher than the official unemployment rate, with a maximum of 2.0 ppts higher between 1996 and 2018. This paper further quantifies the contributions to business-cycle fluctuations in the unemployment rate from job separation, job finding, and participation. Correcting for misclassification changes previous studies' results about the contributions of these transition probabilities: job separation accounts for more of the unemployment fluctuations, while participation accounts for fewer. The methodology I propose can be applied to any other labor force survey in which labor force status is observed for three periods.

Are Labor Market Indicators Telling the Truth? Role of Measurement Error in the U.S. Current Population Survey

Are Labor Market Indicators Telling the Truth? Role of Measurement Error in the U.S. Current Population Survey PDF Author: Mr.Ippei Shibata
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498300456
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40

Get Book Here

Book Description
Labor market indicators are critical for policymakers, but measurement error in labor force survey data is known to be substantial. In this paper, I quantify the implications of classification errors in the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS), in which respondents misreport their true labor force status. Once I correct for measurement error using a latent variable approach, the unemployment rate is on average 0.8 percentage points (ppts) higher than the official unemployment rate, with a maximum of 2.0 ppts higher between 1996 and 2018. This paper further quantifies the contributions to business-cycle fluctuations in the unemployment rate from job separation, job finding, and participation. Correcting for misclassification changes previous studies' results about the contributions of these transition probabilities: job separation accounts for more of the unemployment fluctuations, while participation accounts for fewer. The methodology I propose can be applied to any other labor force survey in which labor force status is observed for three periods.

Are Labor Market Indicators Telling the Truth? Role of Measurement Error in the U.S. Current Population Survey

Are Labor Market Indicators Telling the Truth? Role of Measurement Error in the U.S. Current Population Survey PDF Author: Mr.Ippei Shibata
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498301584
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40

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Book Description
Labor market indicators are critical for policymakers, but measurement error in labor force survey data is known to be substantial. In this paper, I quantify the implications of classification errors in the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS), in which respondents misreport their true labor force status. Once I correct for measurement error using a latent variable approach, the unemployment rate is on average 0.8 percentage points (ppts) higher than the official unemployment rate, with a maximum of 2.0 ppts higher between 1996 and 2018. This paper further quantifies the contributions to business-cycle fluctuations in the unemployment rate from job separation, job finding, and participation. Correcting for misclassification changes previous studies' results about the contributions of these transition probabilities: job separation accounts for more of the unemployment fluctuations, while participation accounts for fewer. The methodology I propose can be applied to any other labor force survey in which labor force status is observed for three periods.

How the Government Measures Unemployment

How the Government Measures Unemployment PDF Author: United States. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Government publications
Languages : en
Pages : 24

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Book Description


The Youth Labor Market Problem

The Youth Labor Market Problem PDF Author: Richard B. Freeman
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226261867
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 568

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Book Description
This volume brings together a massive body of much-needed research information on a problem of crucial importance to labor economists, policy makers, and society in general: unemployment among the young. The thirteen studies detail the ambiguity and inadequacy of our present standard statistics as applied to youth employment, point out the error in many commonly accepted views, and show that many critically important aspects of this problem are not adequately understood. These studies also supply a significant amount of raw data, furnish a platform for further research and theoretical work in labor economics, and direct attention to promising avenues for future programs.

Women in Labour Markets

Women in Labour Markets PDF Author: Sara Elder
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789221233183
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
Offers an analysis of 12 indicators from the ILO Key Indicators of the Labour Market database. The aim is to look for progress or lack of progress towards the goal of gender equality in the world of work and identify where and why blockages to labour market equity continue to exist. Focuses on the relationship of women to labour markets and compares employment outcomes for men and women to the best degree possible given the available labour market indicators.

Occupational Labor Shortages

Occupational Labor Shortages PDF Author: Burt S. Barnow
Publisher: W.E. Upjohn Institute
ISBN: 0880994134
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 229

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Book Description
"Barnow, Trutko, and Piatak focus on whether persistent occupation-specific labor shortages might lead to inefficiencies in the U.S. economy. They describe why shortages arise, the difficulty in ascertaining that a shortage is present, and how to assess strategies to alleviate the shortage. Four occupations are used as test cases: 1) special education teachers, 2) pharmacists, 3) physical therapists, and 4) home health and personal care aides. For each of these occupations the authors summarize evidence that reveals whether it is currently or has recently experienced a labor shortage and suggest possible ways to alleviate the shortage if it is present. The authors close with a chapter discussing their conclusions and potential uses for occupational shortage data, including in helping determine immigration policy. They also discuss the limited nature of the occupational data currently collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and how the federal and state governments could expand their data collection efforts to assist policy formation."--Publisher's website

Understanding China's Economic Indicators

Understanding China's Economic Indicators PDF Author: Thomas Orlik
Publisher: Pearson Education
ISBN: 0132620219
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 267

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Book Description
In Understanding China’s Economic Indicators, leading economist and Wall Street Journal columnist Thomas M. Orlik introduces 35 of China's most significant economic statistics. Orlik explains why each indicator matters, how it is collected and computed, and its impact on equity, commodity, and currency markets. As China has emerged as a central player in the global economy, more and more investors are seeking profitable opportunities there. To choose the right investments, it's crucial to understand China's economic environment–and that means finding, interpreting, and utilizing China's growing base of economic indicators. Orlik helps investors make sense of data on everything from Chinese GDP growth to inflation, unemployment, bond yields, electricity production, and aircraft passenger numbers. He draws on the best information supplied by the Chinese government's statistical agency, ministries, and industry associations, as well as private sources. Each indicator is clearly described, along with a practical discussion of its implications for investors.

Private Government

Private Government PDF Author: Elizabeth Anderson
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691192243
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 222

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Book Description
Why our workplaces are authoritarian private governments—and why we can’t see it One in four American workers says their workplace is a “dictatorship.” Yet that number almost certainly would be higher if we recognized employers for what they are—private governments with sweeping authoritarian power over our lives. Many employers minutely regulate workers’ speech, clothing, and manners on the job, and employers often extend their authority to the off-duty lives of workers, who can be fired for their political speech, recreational activities, diet, and almost anything else employers care to govern. In this compelling book, Elizabeth Anderson examines why, despite all this, we continue to talk as if free markets make workers free, and she proposes a better way to think about the workplace, opening up space for discovering how workers can enjoy real freedom.

On the Inaccuracies of Economic Observations

On the Inaccuracies of Economic Observations PDF Author: Peter A.G. van Bergeijk
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1802207856
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 229

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Book Description
This informative book reveals the pervasive nature of large inaccuracies in economic statistics. Drawing on numerous real-world examples including case studies from advanced and developing countries, Peter van Bergeijk presents profound insights into how downplaying these errors undermines the scientific rigour of economic analysis and outlines how to manage uncertainty in economic analysis moving forward.

Classical Economics Today

Classical Economics Today PDF Author: Marcella Corsi
Publisher: Anthem Press
ISBN: 1783087528
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 267

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Book Description
Classical Economics Today: Essays in Honor of Alessandro Roncaglia is a collection of essays that pays tribute to Alessandro Roncaglia whose research is based on Schumpeter’s dictum that good economics must encompass history, economic theory and statistics, and therefore does not generally take the form of elegant formal models that are applicable to all and everything. In this direction, Roncaglia is inspired by the Classical economists of the past and becomes a model for present-day Classical economists. A perceptible family air imbues the essays: all the contributors are friends of Roncaglia and see his personality and his interests as a common point of reference.