An Asymmetric Analysis of the J-Curve Effect in the Commodity Trade Between China and the US. PDF Download

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An Asymmetric Analysis of the J-Curve Effect in the Commodity Trade Between China and the US.

An Asymmetric Analysis of the J-Curve Effect in the Commodity Trade Between China and the US. PDF Author: Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
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Languages : en
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Book Description
This paper follows a non-linear ARDL error-correction approach to examine the presence of the J-curve in the commodity-level trade between the United States and China. The analysis disaggregates the US-China trade flows by commodities and separately examines the trade balance responses of 97 commodities to the changes in the real yuan-US$ exchange rates. The analysis at the commodity level alleviates potential aggregation bias that is present in earlier studies offering little evidence for long-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate on the China-US trade balance. We find strong support for short-run asymmetric effects in the case of two-third of the commodities, whereas significant long-run asymmetric effects are present in the case of one-third of the commodities including those commodities which command large shares in the China-US trade.