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Author: Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 168
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Book Description
First report on a study of short term economic forecasting in the USA. Statistical tables, and references.
Author: Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 168
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Book Description
First report on a study of short term economic forecasting in the USA. Statistical tables, and references.
Author: Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 144
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Book Description
Author: Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 144
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Book Description
Author: Karl-Heinz Tödter
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 52
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Book Description
The carry-over effect is the advance contribution of the old year to growth in the new year. Among practitioners the informative content of the carry-over effect for short-term forecasting is undisputed and is used routinely in economic forecasting. In this paper, the carry-over effect is analysed 'statistically' and it is shown how it reduces the uncertainty of short-term economic forecasts. This is followed by an empirical analysis of the carry-over effect using simple forecast models as well as Bundesbank and Consensus projections.
Author: N. Carnot
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230306446
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 516
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Book Description
Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.
Author: Hans G. Graf
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA
ISBN: 0313017417
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 264
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Book Description
Before future-oriented information can be used as a basis for decision making in economics or business administration, it must be understood on a methodological level. This book provides decision makers with a thorough understanding of the possibilities offered by various forecasting methods as well as their limitations. If managers rely on a forecast with a long-term perspective to guide them in making short-term decisions, planning deficiencies will likely result. Likewise, if managers use short-term forecasts to inform their long-term strategic vision, failure could easily ensue. Graf provides the tools necessary to sidestep the common pitfall of using the wrong forecasting technique for the wrong purpose. This is not a detailed examination of the mathematical and statistical tools of empirical economic research. Instead, forecasting methods are explained so that they can be understood by the managers who employ them in their decision making. Graf demonstrates that understanding and—in special cases—cooperation between forecast developers and users is crucial to creating an effective forecast that results in informed management decisions. He discusses traditional, long-term, macroeconomic, and global economic forecasting; the scenario technique as a central instrument of long-term forecasting; and short-term economic and market forecasting.
Author: Elia Kacapyr
Publisher: M.E. Sharpe
ISBN: 9781563247651
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 224
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Book Description
Widening the focus from the usual business forecasts, explains the techniques for predicting macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, interest rates, and employment. Reviews the concepts of business cycles and long waves, then describes techniques using economic indicators, time series, econometric models, and consensus. Also considers the evaluation of forecasts. Readers with a solid background in mathematics and statistics should learn now to make forecasts; others should get an intuitive understanding that will improve their interpretation of forecasts by others. Paper edition (unseen), $29.95. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Author: Sylvain Leduc
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1437933823
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 39
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Book Description
Using survey-based measures of future U.S. economic activity, the authors study how changes in expectations, and their interaction with monetary policy, contribute to fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates. They find that changes in expected future economic activity are a quantitatively important driver of economic fluctuations: a perception that good times are ahead typically leads to a significant rise in current measures of economic activity and inflation. Short-term interest rate rises in response to expectations of good times as monetary policy tightens. ¿Provides quantitative evidence on the importance of expectations-driven business cycles and on the role that monetary policy plays in shaping them.¿ Charts and tables.
Author: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 184
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Book Description
Author: Conference on Research in Income and Wealth
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 528
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Book Description
"Papers delivered at the meetings of the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth held in September 1951." Bibliographical footnotes.
