Alternative Estimators of the Cos, Ingersoll and Ross Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates PDF Download
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Author: Carlo Bianchi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author: Carlo Bianchi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author: Carlo Bianchi
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 88
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Author: Fathi Abid
Publisher:
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Languages : en
Pages : 13
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The aim of this paper is twofold; first we concentrate on the work of Vasicek (1977) and Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1985). We examine and test empirically each model and discuss its performance in predicting the term structure of interest rates using a parametric estimating approach GMM (Generalized Moments Method). Second we estimate the term structure of interest rate dynamics using a nonparametric approach ANN (Artificial Neural Network). Two neural network models are performed. The first model uses spreads between interest rates of 10 different maturities as the only explanatory variable of interest rate changes. The second model introduces two factors, spreads and interest rates' levels. Using historical U.S. Treasury bill rates and Treasury bond yields, we compare the ability of each model to predict the term structure of interest rates. Data are daily and cover the period from 3 January 1995 to 29 December 2000. Results suggest that, neural network; Vasicek (1977) and Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1985) models generate different yield curves. Neural network models outperform the parametric standard models. The most successful forecast is obtained with two factors neural network model.
Author: C. Bianchi
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Mr.Vadim Khramov
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475591225
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 27
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This paper sheds light on a narrow but crucial question in finance: What should be the parameters of a model of the short-term real interest rate? Although models for the nominal interest rate are well studied and estimated, dynamics of the real interest rate are rarely explored. Simple ad hoc processes for the short-term real interest rate are usually assumed as building blocks for more sophisticated models. In this paper, parameters of the real interest rate model are estimated in the broad class of single-factor interest rate diffusion processes on U.S. monthly data. It is shown that the elasticity of interest rate volatility—the relationship between the volatility of changes in the interest rate and its level—plays a crucial role in explaining real interest rate dynamics. The empirical estimates of the elasticity of the real interest rate volatility are found to be about 0.5, much lower than that of the nominal interest rate. These estimates show that the square root process, as in the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, provides a good characterization of the short-term real interest rate process.
Author: Ren-Raw Chen
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Languages : en
Pages :
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This paper presents a method for estimating multi-factor versions of the Cox, Ingersoll, Ross (1985b) model of the term structure of interest rates. The fixed parameters in one, two, and three factor models are estimated by applying an approximate maximum likelihood estimator in a state-space model using data for the U.S. treasury market. A nonlinear Kalman filter is used to estimate the unobservable factors. Multi-factor models are necessary to characterize the changing shape of the yield curve over time, and the statistical tests support the case for two and three factor models. A three factor model would be able to incorporate random variation in short term interest rates, long term rates, and interest rate volatility.
Author: Gianluca Fusai
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540499598
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 606
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This book puts numerical methods in action for the purpose of solving practical problems in quantitative finance. The first part develops a toolkit in numerical methods for finance. The second part proposes twenty self-contained cases covering model simulation, asset pricing and hedging, risk management, statistical estimation and model calibration. Each case develops a detailed solution to a concrete problem arising in applied financial management and guides the user towards a computer implementation. The appendices contain "crash courses" in VBA and Matlab programming languages.
Author: Yu-jung Liu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 332
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Author: Alois Geyer
Publisher:
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Languages : en
Pages :
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The objective of this paper is to estimate and test multifactor versions of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model of the nominal term structure of interest rates. The proposed state-space approach integrates time-series and cross-sectional aspects of the CIR model, is consistent with the underlying economic model, and can use information from all available points of the term structure. We recover estimates of the underlying factors that are consistent with the assumptions about the stochastic processes and compare them with factors obtained from standard factor analysis. We perform thorough diagnostic checking and thereby provide new evidence regarding conclusions about the adequacy of the CIR model. We present empirical results for U.S. Treasury market data. Although the specification of multifactor CIR models is sufficiently flexible for the shape of the term structure, we find strong evidence against the adequacy of the CIR model.
Author: Donald R. Van Deventer
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118177320
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 502
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Book Description
An in-depth look at financial risk management Advanced Financial Risk Management integrates interest rate risk, credit risk, foreign exchange risk, and capital allocation using a consistent risk management approach. It explains, in detailed, yet understandable terms, the analytics of these issues from A to Z. Written by experienced risk managers, this book bridges the gap between the idealized assumptions used for valuation and the realities that must be reflected in management actions. It covers everything from the basics of present value, forward rates, and interest rate compounding to the wide variety of alternative term structure models. Donald R. Van Deventer (Hawaii) founded the Kamakura Corporation in April 1990 and is currently President. In 2003, he was voted into the Risk Hall of Fame for having made a profound contribution to the field of risk management. Kenji Imai (Hawaii) heads Software Development for Kamakura and participates in selected Japan-related financial advisory assignments. Mark Mesler (Hawaii) heads the information production for Kamakura Risk Information Services.
