Air Quality Implications of an Energy Scenario for California Using High Levels of Electrification PDF Download
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Author: Marcus Alexander
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Air quality
Languages : en
Pages : 144
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Author: Marcus Alexander
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Air quality
Languages : en
Pages : 144
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Author: Siavash Ebrahimi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electric power
Languages : en
Pages : 262
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Author: Christina Bautista Zapata
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780355969733
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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California’s goal to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 80% below 1990 levels by the year 2050 will require adoption of low-carbon energy sources across all economic sectors. The CA-TIMES model is a bottom-up energy-economic cost minimization model that was designed to examine different energy scenarios paths given carbon constraints. Here I have dissected two CA-TIMES scenarios, a business-as-usual (BAU) and a GHG-constrained (GHG-Step) scenario, to enhance understanding of how transforming energy can lead to changes in (Part I) short-lived criteria pollutant emissions and impact (Part II) air pollution, public health, and costs associated with premature mortality. In Part (I) the California REgional Multisector AiR QUality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE) model was developed to estimate criteria pollutant emissions inventories for each CA-TIMES energy scenario. Separate algorithms were developed to estimate criteria pollutant and precursor emissions for all energy sectors. This required the incorporation of literature-based emission profiles of particulate chemical composition and size distribution and gas speciation, and emission rates. Spatially-resolved energy projections were reviewed and gathered for many future and advanced electrification, biofuels, and hydrogen technologies. CA-REMARQUE results indicate an overall decrease in emissions across all sectors given a GHG-Step scenario, but also unexpected increases across in some specific energy sectors. Avoidance of fossil fuel consumption and use of alternative fuels, primarily in the GHG-Step scenario, also modify the composition of reactive organic gas emissions and the size and composition of particulate matter emissions. In Part (II) the UCD/CIT Airshed Lagrangian model was run to simulate annual-average air pollution changes of PM2.5 and O3 concentrations. Simulations were conducted for three modelling domains over California: a 576 km2 cell resolution over California, 16 km2 cell resolution over Central Valley, and 16 km2 cell resolution over Southern California. Simulated annual-average PM2.5 and O3 exposure were used to estimate mortality (total deaths per year) and mortality rate (deaths per 100,000) using established exposure-response relationships from air pollution epidemiology. Predicted deaths associated with air pollution in 2050 dropped by 24%–26% in California (1,537–2,758 avoided deaths yr−1) in the 2050 GHG-Step scenario, equivalent to a 54%–56% reduction in the air pollution mortality rate (deaths per 100,000) relative to 2010 levels. These avoided deaths have an estimated value of $11.4B–$20.4B USD per year. Best estimates suggest that meeting an intermediate target (40% reduction in GHG emissions by the year 2030) using a non-optimized scenario would reduce personal income by $4.95B yr−1 (-0.15%) and lower overall state GDP by $16.1B yr−1 (-0.45%). The public health benefits described here are comparable to these cost estimates, making a compelling argument for the adoption of low-carbon energy in California beyond costs associated more directly with climate change.
Author: David W. Roland-Holst
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 70
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Author: Tianyang Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 183
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In this dissertation we investigate the roadmap for California to achieve deep greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions by 2050 and the resulting regional air quality and public health impacts, form the strategy feasibility and selections that achieves different levels of ambitious climate target, to the benefits and trade-offs of different technology pathways with respect to air quality and public health consequences, as well as the relative contributions of emissions from different origins to regional air quality and public health. We first develop a roadmap for California to achieve net-zero GHG emissions in 2050 using detailed modeling of energy system transformation, cross-sectorial connectivity, and technology applicability. GHG mitigation strategies also reduce co-emitted criteria pollutants in California. By utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) and the Environmental Benefit Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), we find that achieving net-zero GHG emissions can reduce 14,066 (95% Confidence Interval: 10,855 - 17,226) air pollution-related mortality in 2050, 35% of which are in disadvantaged communities. The monetized health co-benefit can offset most of the GHG abatement costs (i.e., 26 -116 billion dollars). These co-benefits are mainly contributed by ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration reductions, while ambient ozone (O3) concentration in California is not likely to drop when local emissions reduce. The net-zero target also requires bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) technology to offset some GHG emissions. BECCS technology, whereas supporting the net-zero target, would emit air pollutants through biomass combustion and reduce health co-benefits by 3 billion dollars, suggesting a potential trade-off between climate benefits and health co-benefits of ambitious climate policies. We then analyze the air quality and health impacts of different GHG mitigation pathways. By adopting an integrated approach that combines energy and emission technology modeling, high-resolution chemical transport simulation, and health impact assessment, we find that achievement of the 80% GHG reduction target would always bring substantial air quality and health co-benefits. But more importantly, the level of co-benefits are highly related to the selected technology pathway largely because of California's relatively clean energy structure. Compared with the business-as-usual levels, a decarbonization pathway that focuses on electrification and clean renewable energy is estimated to reduce concentrations of PM2.5 by 18-37% in four major metropolitan areas of California and subsequently avoid 10,196 (95% CI: 8,169-12,202) premature deaths. In contrast, a pathway focusing more on combustible renewable fuels only results in a quarter of such air quality and health benefits. Similar to what we found before, both GHG mitigation pathways may not reduce ambient O3 concentrations in California. Our findings could also assist the development of optimized technology pathway to simultaneously reduce GHG emissions and improve human health in California. Lastly, we conduct a detailed analysis to understand the relative contributions of local and non-local emission sources to ambient PM2.5 and O3 and evaluate the mortality burden in California associated with these two pollutants. We attribute the ambient PM2.5 and O3 concentrations in California to four emission groups: (1) California in-state anthropogenic emissions; (2) anthropogenic emissions from the western United States, excluding California; (3) natural emissions from the western United States; and (4) all emissions from outside of the western United States. Our health impact analyses find that PM2.5 and O3 are associated with 27,445 [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 19,277 - 35,885] and 13,822 (95% CI: 6,106-23,659) mortalities in California in 2012, respectively. Our estimates of O3-assocoated mortality are much higher than previously reported, mainly because we estimate 6,354 (95% CI 2,224 - 10,268) O3-associated cardiovascular mortality based on new epidemiological evidence. Approximately 67% of PM2.5-associated mortality in California is attributable to PM2.5 from in-state anthropogenic emissions. In contrast, 75% of the ambient O3 in California is contributed by distant emissions outside western United States, leading to 92% of O3-associated mortality, while in-state emissions were found to contribute to a much lesser extent to O3-associated mortality [i.e., 771 (95% CI 389-1,146) in ozone season]. The different patterns of PM2.5 and O3 we found also help explain our previous findings that GHG mitigation efforts in California mainly reduce local PM2.5 pollution.
Author: SRI International
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Energy policy
Languages : en
Pages : 214
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Author: Brian Tarroja
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electric power consumption
Languages : en
Pages : 258
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Author: Christina Bautista Zapata
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781267760418
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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The Scoping Plan for compliance with California Assembly Bill 32 (Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006; AB 32) proposes a substantial reduction in 2020 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from all economic sectors through energy efficiency, renewable energy, and other technological measures. Most of the AB 32 Scoping Plan measures will simultaneously reduce emissions of traditional criteria pollutants along with GHGs leading to a co-benefit of improved air quality in California. The present study quantifies the airborne particulate matter (PM2.5) co-benefits of AB 32 by comparing future air quality under a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario (without AB 32) to AB 32 implementation by sector. AB 32 measures were divided into five levels defined by sector as follows: 1) industrial sources, 2) electric utility and natural gas sources, 3) agricultural sources, 4) on-road mobile sources and 5) other mobile sources. Air quality throughout California was simulated using the UCD source-oriented air quality model during 12 days of severe air pollution and over 108 days of typical meteorology representing an annual average period in the year 2030 (10 years after the AB 32 adoption deadline). The net effect of all AB 32 measures reduced statewide primary PM and NO[subscript x] emissions by ~1% and ~15%, respectively. Air quality simulations predict that these emissions reductions lower population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations (i.e. PM2.5 exposure) by ~6% for California. The South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) experienced the greatest reductions in PM2.5 concentrations due to the AB 32 transportation measures while the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) experiences the smallest reductions or even slight increases in PM2.5 concentrations due to the AB 32 measures that called for increased use of dairy biogas for electricity generation. The ~6% reduction in PM2.5 exposure associated with AB 32 predicted in the current study reduced air pollution mortality in California by 6.2%, avoiding 880 (560-1100) premature deaths per year for the conditions in 2030. The monetary benefit from this avoided mortality was estimated at $5.4B/yr with an efficiency of $35k/tonne ($23k/tonne-$45k/tonne) of PM, NO[subscript x], SO[subscript x], and NH3 emissions reduction.
Author: Sarah Williams
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Air
Languages : en
Pages : 22
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Author: University of Texas at Austin. Center for Energy Studies
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Antinuclear movement
Languages : en
Pages : 412
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