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Author: Charles Freedman
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451941714
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 59
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Book Description
This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add Indonesia to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.
Author: Charles Freedman
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451941714
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 59
Get Book Here
Book Description
This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add Indonesia to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.
Author: Ioan Carabenciov
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484318943
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 79
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Book Description
This is the sixth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add three more regions and make a number of other changes to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.
Author: Anwar Nasution
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317631803
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 492
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Book Description
This book gives insight on the dynamics and route of economic policies that have been taken and implemented since the point of institutional reforms in 1998 that were triggered from the context of the financial crisis in 1997/1998. The condition brought a different paradigm on the landscape of economic and development policies, especially in the case of the monetary and financial structure, the international trade sector, the manufacturing sector, the taxes administration policy and the evolved context of decentralization and development of public sector policies in general. Given state of current economic development, this book offers suggestions to address economic issues that require improvements. This book is unique as: 1) it is about Indonesia, a country mostly affected by 1997/1998 financial crisis, which also lead to a change in regime; 2) it covers a broad range of thematic topics on sectors development and institutional changes from major policies that have been taken; and 3) it posits both existing and future challenges on monetary and financial sectors, trade, manufacturing and competitiveness, as well as on development of decentralization policies.
Author: Javier Gómez-Pineda
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513552546
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 52
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Book Description
The paper presents a global model with systemic and country risks, as well as commodity prices.We show that systemic risk shocks have an important impact on world economic activity, with the busts in world output gap corresponding to unobserved systemic risk associated with major financial events. In addition, systemic risk shocks are shown to be important drivers of output gaps while country risk premium shocks can have important effects on the trade balance. Commodity prices, in particular the price of oil, are shown to be demand driven. The model performs well at one- and four-quarter horizons compared to a survey of analysts' forecasts. In addition, systemic risk shocks explain a large share of the forecast variance for the world output gap, country output gaps, the price of oil, and country risk premiums. The importance of systemic risk shocks lends support for financial surveillance with a systemic focus.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475556314
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
This Selected Issues Paper focuses on the economic and financial ties between Poland and the euro area and analyzes the associated spillovers. It documents stylized facts about trade, vertical integration, foreign direct investment, and banking system linkages between Poland and core euro area countries. The impact of shocks originating from the euro area on economic developments in Poland is quantified using two methods, namely a vector auto-regression model and a small-open-economy quarterly projection model.
Author: Michal Andrle
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484360516
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 45
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Book Description
This paper discusses several popular methods to estimate the ‘output gap’. It provides a unified, natural concept for the analysis, and demonstrates how to decompose the output gap into contributions of observed data on output, inflation, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart of contributing factors, in the case of multi-variable methods, sharpens the intuition behind the estimates and ultimately shows ‘what is in your output gap.’ The paper demonstrates how to interpret effects of data revisions and new data releases for output gap estimates (news effects) and how to obtain more insight into real-time properties of estimators.
Author: Michal Andrle
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484341619
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 23
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Book Description
This paper introduces methods that allow analysts to (i) decompose the estimates of unobserved quantities into observed data, (ii) to better understand revision properties of the model, and (iii) to impose subjective prior constraints on path estimates of unobserved shocks in structural economic models. For instance, a decomposition of the flexible-price output gap, or a technology shock, into contributions of output, inflation, interest rates, and other observed variables' contribution is feasible. The intuitive nature and analytical clarity of the suggested procedures are appealing for policy-related and forecasting models.
Author: Michal Andrle
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484318374
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
This paper proposes a novel way of formulating priors for estimating economic models. System priors are priors about the model's features and behavior as a system, such as the sacrifice ratio or the maximum duration of response of inflation to a particular shock, for instance. System priors represent a very transparent and economically meaningful way of formulating priors about parameters, without the unintended consequences of independent priors about individual parameters. System priors may complement or also substitute for independent marginal priors. The new philosophy of formulating priors is motivated, explained and illustrated using a structural model for monetary policy.
Author: Jeffrey Rosensweig
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
ISBN: 1439136319
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 280
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Book Description
In the 21st century global economy, emerging nations will provide almost half of the potential customers for western goods and services, concludes international business expert Jeffrey A. Rosensweig. Drawing on extensive research, Rosensweig contends that firms with truly global strategies will profit from the untapped resources of emerging markets and at the same time improve the living standards of the world?s poor. Dismissing the doomsday scenario that so-called Third World nations will continue to be mired in poverty, he argues persuasively that western executives must break out of the mindset that profitable ventures can only be found within the ?Triad? of the United States, Europe, and Japan. Rosensweig reminds us that American exports to emerging nations have tripled since 1986. He projects that, by the year 2010, the world will contain six great regional economies -- four of them in Asia -- and that three of every eight middle-class consumers will reside in the developing world. In clear, nontechnical language, he explains how executives can identify trends of globalization and apply them to business strategy, particularly to what he calls a ?time-phased? global strategy for synchronizing a firm?s investments with the progress of emerging middle classes. Winning the Global Game demonstrates that adopting a global perspective now is a win-win strategy that links people and profits. It will be important reading for all multinational executives and managers in firms which are going global. The chapter on 21st century personal career strategy will appeal particularly to the aspiring global executive.
Author: Kakali Mukhopadhyay
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9048135079
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 219
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Book Description
In recent years, the East and South East Asian region has witnessed a rapid expansion of regional economic cooperation through bilateral and plurilateral free trade agreements. The current book attempts to comprehensively analyze the economic and environmental impacts of regional economic integration in East and South East Asia to the year 2020. This region has some of the fastest growing economies of the world. A global economic model was used to undertake the analysis. A rare feature of the book is the detailed environmental implications of the Regional Trade Agreements focusing on air, water, and waste pollution. Economic integration among the East and South East Asian region has been an important agenda item for the academic and policy communities in recent years. The study provides insight into pursuing a concrete multilateral trade liberalization policy (combining ASEAN and other countries in East Asia) and throws more light on the on-going trade and environment debate. This book will be a good addition to the field of trade and the environment. The academic community – primarily researchers and policy makers, and world bodies, such as the WTO, ADB and the World Bank, will benefit from the book.
