A Term Structure Decomposition of the Australian Yield Curve PDF Download
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Author: Richard Finlay
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Government securities
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
"We use data on coupon-bearing Australian Government bonds and overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates to estimate risk-free zero-coupon yield and forward curves for Australia from 1992 to 2007. These curves, and analysts? forecasts of future interest rates, are then used to fit an affine term structure model to Australian interest rates, with the aim of decomposing forward rates into expected future overnight cash rates plus term premia. The expected future short rates derived from the model are on average unbiased, fluctuating around the average of actual observed short rates. Since the adoption of inflation targeting and the entrenchment of low and stable inflation expectations, term premia appear to have declined in levels and displayed smaller fluctuations in response to economic shocks. This suggests that the market has become less uncertain about the path of future interest rates. Towards the end of the sample period, term premia have been negative, suggesting that investors may have been willing to pay a premium for Commonwealth Government securities. Due to the complexity of the model and the difficulty of calibrating it to data, the results should not be interpreted too precisely. Nevertheless, the model does provide a potentially useful decomposition of recent changes in the expected path of interest rates and term premia."--Reserve Bank of Australia web site.
Author: Richard Finlay
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Government securities
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
"We use data on coupon-bearing Australian Government bonds and overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates to estimate risk-free zero-coupon yield and forward curves for Australia from 1992 to 2007. These curves, and analysts? forecasts of future interest rates, are then used to fit an affine term structure model to Australian interest rates, with the aim of decomposing forward rates into expected future overnight cash rates plus term premia. The expected future short rates derived from the model are on average unbiased, fluctuating around the average of actual observed short rates. Since the adoption of inflation targeting and the entrenchment of low and stable inflation expectations, term premia appear to have declined in levels and displayed smaller fluctuations in response to economic shocks. This suggests that the market has become less uncertain about the path of future interest rates. Towards the end of the sample period, term premia have been negative, suggesting that investors may have been willing to pay a premium for Commonwealth Government securities. Due to the complexity of the model and the difficulty of calibrating it to data, the results should not be interpreted too precisely. Nevertheless, the model does provide a potentially useful decomposition of recent changes in the expected path of interest rates and term premia."--Reserve Bank of Australia web site.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Australia
Languages : en
Pages : 74
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Book Description
Author: M. A. H. Dempster
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1482299674
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 637
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Book Description
High-Performance Computing (HPC) delivers higher computational performance to solve problems in science, engineering and finance. There are various HPC resources available for different needs, ranging from cloud computing– that can be used without much expertise and expense – to more tailored hardware, such as Field-Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) or D-Wave’s quantum computer systems. High-Performance Computing in Finance is the first book that provides a state-of-the-art introduction to HPC for finance, capturing both academically and practically relevant problems.
Author: Andrew C. Harvey
Publisher: Financial Times/Prentice Hall
ISBN: 9780745012001
Category : Time-series analysis
Languages : en
Pages : 308
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Book Description
A companion volume to The Econometric Analysis of Time series, this book focuses on the estimation, testing and specification of dynamic models which are not based on any behavioural theory. It covers univariate and multivariate time series and emphasizes autoregressive moving-average processes.
Author: Vasant Naik
Publisher: CFA Institute Research Foundation
ISBN: 1944960155
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 192
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Gianni De Nicolo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451857608
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
This paper documents global trends in bank activity, consolidation, internationalization, and financial firm conglomeration, and explores the extent to which financial firm risk and systemic risk potential in banking are related to consolidation and conglomeration. We find that while there is a substantial upward trend in conglomeration globally, consolidation and internationalization exhibit uneven patterns across world regions. Trends in consolidation and conglomeration indicate increased risk profiles for large, conglomerate financial firms, and higher levels of systemic risk potential for more concentrated banking systems. We outline research directions aimed at explaining why bank consolidation and conglomeration do not necessarily yield either safer financial firms or more resilient banking systems.
Author: Callum Jones
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484353552
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
After 2007, countries that cut their policy interest rates close to zero turned, among other policies, to forward guidance. We estimate a two-country model of the U.S. and Canada to quantify how unexpected changes in U.S. forward guidance affected Canada. Expansionary U.S. forward guidance shocks, like conventional policy shocks, are beggar-thy-neighbor and depress Canadian output, but by twice as much as conventional shocks. We find that the effect of U.S. forward guidance shocks on Canadian output, unlike conventional policy shocks, depends on the state of U.S. demand and can be five times smaller when U.S. demand is weak.
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
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Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 318
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Book Description
Author: Oliver Entrop
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
This paper describes the first thorough analysis of the interest risk of German banks on an individual bank level. We develop a new method that is based on time series of accountingbased data to quantify the interest risk of banks and apply it to analyze the German banking system. We find evidence that our model yields a significantly better fit of banks' internally quantified interest rate risk than a standard approach that relies on one-point-in-time data, and that the interest rate risk differs between banks of different size and banking group. Additionally, we find structural differences between trading book and non-trading book institutions.
