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Author: Ferre De Graeve
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We estimate a medium-scale macro-finance DSGE model of the term structure. By expanding the macro part of macro-finance models, historical fluctuations in US bond yields turn out to be largely consistent with the rational expectations hypothesis. This stands in contrast to extant macro-finance models and suggests that their - small-scale or non-structural - perspective on the macroeconomy mutes expectations, thereby underestimating the expectations hypothesis' potential. Out-of-sample forecasts are competitive with more flexible models of the yield curve. We interpret various episodes through the lens of the model. The inflation hike in the mid-seventies was predominantly the result of markup shocks to wages and prices, while monetary policy's commitment to fighting inflation was largely credible. Although the Fed succeeded in bringing down inflation in the early eighties, it had less success in lowering inflation expectations. The model suggests the mid 2000 non-response of long rates to monetary policy is a to a large extent the logical consequence of the Fed's response to demand-type shocks hitting the economy. Finally, the paper investigates which structural shocks cause the yield curve to contain information about future growth.
Author: Ferre De Graeve
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We estimate a medium-scale macro-finance DSGE model of the term structure. By expanding the macro part of macro-finance models, historical fluctuations in US bond yields turn out to be largely consistent with the rational expectations hypothesis. This stands in contrast to extant macro-finance models and suggests that their - small-scale or non-structural - perspective on the macroeconomy mutes expectations, thereby underestimating the expectations hypothesis' potential. Out-of-sample forecasts are competitive with more flexible models of the yield curve. We interpret various episodes through the lens of the model. The inflation hike in the mid-seventies was predominantly the result of markup shocks to wages and prices, while monetary policy's commitment to fighting inflation was largely credible. Although the Fed succeeded in bringing down inflation in the early eighties, it had less success in lowering inflation expectations. The model suggests the mid 2000 non-response of long rates to monetary policy is a to a large extent the logical consequence of the Fed's response to demand-type shocks hitting the economy. Finally, the paper investigates which structural shocks cause the yield curve to contain information about future growth.
Author: Reuben A. Kessel
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 132
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Book Description
Author: Felix Geiger
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642215750
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 320
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Book Description
The determinants of yield curve dynamics have been thoroughly discussed in finance models. However, little can be said about the macroeconomic factors behind the movements of short- and long-term interest rates as well as the risk compensation demanded by financial investors. By taking on a macro-finance perspective, the book’s approach explicitly acknowledges the close feedback between monetary policy, the macroeconomy and financial conditions. Both theoretical and empirical models are applied in order to get a profound understanding of the interlinkages between economic activity, the conduct of monetary policy and the underlying macroeconomic factors of bond price movements. Moreover, the book identifies a broad risk-taking channel of monetary transmission which allows a reassessment of the role of financial constraints; it enables policy makers to develop new guidelines for monetary policy and for financial supervision of how to cope with evolving financial imbalances.
Author: Juan J. Dolado
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 1803828331
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 188
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Book Description
Both parts of Volume 44 of Advances in Econometrics pay tribute to Fabio Canova for his major contributions to economics over the last four decades.
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
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Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Newnes
ISBN: 0444536841
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 719
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Book Description
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Author: Mr.Ralph Chami
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513531867
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a market stochastic discount factor that is non-linear and therefore consistent with the empirical properties of cashflow valuations identified in the literature. We provide evidence that non-linearities arise from hedging strategies of investors exposed to interest rate risk. Capital losses are amplified when interest rates increase and risk averse investors have taken positions on instruments with longer maturity, expecting instead interest rates to revert back to their historical average.
Author: Ruediger Bachmann
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0128234768
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 876
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Book Description
Handbook of Economic Expectations discusses the state-of-the-art in the collection, study and use of expectations data in economics, including the modelling of expectations formation and updating, as well as open questions and directions for future research. The book spans a broad range of fields, approaches and applications using data on subjective expectations that allows us to make progress on fundamental questions around the formation and updating of expectations by economic agents and their information sets. The information included will help us study heterogeneity and potential biases in expectations and analyze impacts on behavior and decision-making under uncertainty. Combines information about the creation of economic expectations and their theories, applications and likely futures Provides a comprehensive summary of economics expectations literature Explores empirical and theoretical dimensions of expectations and their relevance to a wide array of subfields in economics
Author: Mr.Calixte Ahokpossi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475526296
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
We estimate the latent factors that underlie the dynamics of the sovereign bond yield curve in Morocco during 2004–14 based on the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. On this basis, we explore the interaction between macroeconomic variables and the yield curve, which is of direct relevance to macroeconomic policy-making. In Morocco’s context, we find that tighter monetary policy increases short-end maturities, and that the impact is small and short-lived. Economic activity is also briefly but significantly impacted, suggesting that even under a pegged exchange rate, monetary policy autonomy and effectiveness can be increased through greater central bank independence. Fiscal improvements significantly lower yield levels. Policy conclusions are that improvement in the fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, as well as greater financial sector development and inclusion, could benefit Morocco and strengthen the transmission mechanisms and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.
Author:
Publisher: Lulu.com
ISBN: 9291316695
Category : Bank capital
Languages : en
Pages : 294
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Book Description
