A Simulation Estimation Analysis of the External Debt Crisis of Developing Countries PDF Download
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Author: Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Debts, External
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
Author: Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Debts, External
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
Author: V. A. Hajivassiliou
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 23
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Book Description
Author: Doug Hostland
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number of interrelated factors, including the volatility of output, financial fragility, the endogenous response of the risk premium, and sudden stops in private capital flows. The vulnerability of external debt is sensitive to the determination of the exchange rate and to the pricing of traded goods. We show that fiscal policy can act in a preemptive manner to prevent the debt burden from rising significantly over the medium term. This requires flexibility in fiscal planning, which many emerging market economies lack. Emerging market economies therefore face a difficult trade-off between managing the risk of a debt crisis and pursuing other important fiscal policy objectives.
Author: Yanhui Zhang
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3638379329
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 18
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Book Description
Seminar paper from the year 2003 in the subject Politics - Topic: Globalization, Political Economics, grade: 1,3, University of Northampton, course: Global Political Economy, language: English, abstract: [...] In the 1970s, the world trade framework provided possibilities and opportunities for poor economies to grow. However, the harsh reality of poverty in those new independent nations was the main obstacle for any development. Their economic conditions suggested that borrowing money and gaining foreign aids were reasonable courses in the 1970s. In the meantime, the ex-colonial powers began rising awareness of remaining their influence over their past conquests. Considering of remaining economic dependency, western countries showed great willingness of lending money to poor nations. The result was an unprecedented flow of sources from the developed countries to the developing world. A large proportion of sources were in form of loans and international aids from commercial banks and western governments. Many developing countries had very large debts, and the amount of money they owed was quickly increasing. In 1982, Mexico came finally to the brink of default on its foreign debt. The critical situation marked the beginning of the “Third World Debt Crisis”. In 1970, the fifteen heavily indebted nations (using the World Bank classification of 1989) had an external public debt of $17.923 billion – which amounted to 9.8% for their GNP. By 1987, these same nations owed $402.171 billion, or 47.5% of their GNP. Interest payments owed by these countries went from $2.789 billion in 1970 to $36.251 billion in 1987. In 1991, the developing world as a whole owed a total external debt of $1.362 trillion, or 126.5% of their total exports of goods and services that year (Ferraro, V. & Rosser, M., 1994). Trying to pay off the debt became a serious problem for these countries. The nature and terms as well as the political conditions with them caused great hardship for their people. The debt crisis in the third world is highly linked to the issues of western policies, interest rates, export values and confidence in the international banking system. The crisis is thus an international phenomenon and to understand it fully needs a global perspective. This paper will examine the origins of the debt crisis in the third world in the first part and the consequences in the second part. The third part will give solutions and recommendations followed by conclusion in the fourth part.
Author: Soumitra Sharma
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1349200441
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 455
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Book Description
The papers presented here were first given at the International Conference of Economists at the University of Zagreb in Yugoslavia. The book contains a rare selection of divergent theoretical and practical views on the acute problem of international debt and its repercussions on world economic growth at large and the developing countries in particular.
Author: Mr.Udaibir S. Das
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475505531
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 128
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Book Description
This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.
Author: Bonnie K. Campbell
Publisher: Basingstoke [England] : Macmillan
ISBN:
Category : Debts, External
Languages : en
Pages : 216
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Book Description
Five papers on the political dimensions of the debt crisis at national, international and geo-political levels. There are case studies of Sudan, Senegal, Ivory Coast and Mexico. One conclusion is that the erosion of the powers and legitimacy of government is the most damaging consequence.
Author: Helmut Reisen
Publisher: Development Centre of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ; Washington, D.C. : OECD Publications and Information Centre
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 206
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Book Description
Author: Dragoslav Avramovic
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Absorptive capacity (Economics)
Languages : en
Pages : 230
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Book Description
Bevat: 1. An analytical framework. 2. A statistical presentation. 3. Essays.
Author: Gordon Whitford Smith
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780821304570
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 356
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Book Description
The conference papers contained in this book address the problem of international debt. They have been organized into four sections. In the first, microeconomic theories of international borrowing and lending are developed and applied to the current situation. Sovereign risk is an important feature in these analyses. The second section deals in greater depth with bank behavior, the structure of financial markets, and recent suggestions for structural reform of these markets. Section III contains an econometric analysis of the precursors of debt repayment problems and asks whether they can be predicted in advance with the use of available macroeconomic information. Case studies of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Korea, and Mexico are studied in the final section to determine how and why they experienced debt-servicing problems in 1982-1984. The roles of domestic macroeconomic policies as well as of external shocks are carefully considered.
