A GIS-BASED VOLCANIC HAZARD AND RISK ASSESSMENT OF ERUPTIONS SOURCED WITHIN VALLES CALDERA, NEW MEXICO PDF Download
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Author: Rebecca Alcorn
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Geographic information systems
Languages : en
Pages : 71
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Book Description
Valles caldera, in north-central New Mexico, is considered one of the largest rhyolitic volcanoes in the United States due to the great amount of volcanic activity over the last 1.61 Ma. Although Valles caldera is currently dormant, there is potential for future volcanic activity, and therefore it is prudent to assess the risk to the surrounding area well before a disaster strikes. The primary objective of this study is to develop one of the first volcanic risk assessments of the Valles caldera region through the evaluation of the spatial extent of different volcanic hazards and the assessment of social and economic vulnerability of the area at risk. In this study, hazard maps are generated with a GIS-based volcanic hazards tool designed to simulate ash fallout, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), and lava flows based on the Late Quaternary (~55 ka) eruptions from within Valles caldera. Simulated ash fall deposits originating from El Cajete crater are calibrated to isopach and lithic isopleth maps of the Lower and Upper El Cajete ash fall deposits as constructed by Wolff et al. (2011) with modern environmental conditions. Additionally, the calibration of PDCs is conducted based on the distribution and runout of the Battleship Rock Ignimbrite. Once calibrated, hazards are simulated at two other vent locations determined from probability distributions of structural features, in order to generate the final hazard maps. In assessing communities' hazard preparedness, social vulnerability is evaluated for all census-designated places within the study site through a principal component analysis of twenty-four variables shown to increase or decrease social vulnerability. Also, to assess the expected loss from hazards, economic vulnerability is evaluated through a multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) of population, land use, infrastructure, and economic production, where each factor is categorized and assigned a value representing relative vulnerability based on cost and importance. Ultimately, the hazard maps and vulnerability assessments are aggregated through weighted linear combination and pairwise comparison matrices, creating a total of five risk maps. Although the actual maps provide greater detail, overall, the risk maps show that ash fall has the greatest impact, effecting areas up to 50 km S/SE of the caldera, including highly vulnerable cities, such as Los Alamos, White Rock, and Santa Fe. The PDCs and lava flow hazards, however, impact significantly smaller areas, primarily disturbing low vulnerability forest. The methodology presented in this paper allows for a robust analysis of the risk the Valles caldera area is faced with in the event of volcanic hazards, which is especially useful in focusing mitigation strategies to reduce the loss from such hazard events.
Author: Rebecca Alcorn
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Geographic information systems
Languages : en
Pages : 71
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Book Description
Valles caldera, in north-central New Mexico, is considered one of the largest rhyolitic volcanoes in the United States due to the great amount of volcanic activity over the last 1.61 Ma. Although Valles caldera is currently dormant, there is potential for future volcanic activity, and therefore it is prudent to assess the risk to the surrounding area well before a disaster strikes. The primary objective of this study is to develop one of the first volcanic risk assessments of the Valles caldera region through the evaluation of the spatial extent of different volcanic hazards and the assessment of social and economic vulnerability of the area at risk. In this study, hazard maps are generated with a GIS-based volcanic hazards tool designed to simulate ash fallout, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), and lava flows based on the Late Quaternary (~55 ka) eruptions from within Valles caldera. Simulated ash fall deposits originating from El Cajete crater are calibrated to isopach and lithic isopleth maps of the Lower and Upper El Cajete ash fall deposits as constructed by Wolff et al. (2011) with modern environmental conditions. Additionally, the calibration of PDCs is conducted based on the distribution and runout of the Battleship Rock Ignimbrite. Once calibrated, hazards are simulated at two other vent locations determined from probability distributions of structural features, in order to generate the final hazard maps. In assessing communities' hazard preparedness, social vulnerability is evaluated for all census-designated places within the study site through a principal component analysis of twenty-four variables shown to increase or decrease social vulnerability. Also, to assess the expected loss from hazards, economic vulnerability is evaluated through a multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) of population, land use, infrastructure, and economic production, where each factor is categorized and assigned a value representing relative vulnerability based on cost and importance. Ultimately, the hazard maps and vulnerability assessments are aggregated through weighted linear combination and pairwise comparison matrices, creating a total of five risk maps. Although the actual maps provide greater detail, overall, the risk maps show that ash fall has the greatest impact, effecting areas up to 50 km S/SE of the caldera, including highly vulnerable cities, such as Los Alamos, White Rock, and Santa Fe. The PDCs and lava flow hazards, however, impact significantly smaller areas, primarily disturbing low vulnerability forest. The methodology presented in this paper allows for a robust analysis of the risk the Valles caldera area is faced with in the event of volcanic hazards, which is especially useful in focusing mitigation strategies to reduce the loss from such hazard events.
Author: Felipe Aguilera
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
ISBN: 2832515134
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 178
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Book Description
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309070961
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 150
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Book Description
The United States has more than 65 active or potentially active volcanoes, more than those of all other countries except Indonesia and Japan. During the twentieth century, volcanic eruptions in Alaska, California, Hawaii, and Washington devastated thousands of square kilometers of land, caused substantial economic and societal disruption and, in some instances, loss of life. More than 50 U.S. volcanoes have erupted one or more times in the past 200 years. Recently, there have been major advances in our understanding of how volcanoes work. This is partly because of detailed studies of eruptions and partly because of advances in global communications, remote sensing, and interdisciplinary cooperation. The mission of the Volcano Hazards Program (VHP) is to "lessen the harmful impacts of volcanic activity by monitoring active and potentially active volcanoes, assessing their hazards, responding to volcanic crises, and conducting research on how volcanoes work." To provide a fresh perspective and guidance to the VHP about the future of the program, the Geologic and Water Resources Divisions of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) requested that the National Research Council conduct an independent and comprehensive review. Review of the U. S. Geological Survey's Volcano Hazards Program is organized around the three components of hazards mitigation. Chapter 2 deals with research and hazard assessment. Chapter 3 covers monitoring and Chapter 4 discusses crisis response and other forms of outreach conducted by the VHP. Chapter 5 describes various cross-cutting programmatic issues such as staffing levels, data formats, and partnerships. Chapter 6 offers a vision for the future of the Volcano Hazards Program, and Chapter 7 summarizes the conclusions and recommendations of the preceding chapters. Throughout the report, major conclusions are printed in italics and recommendations in bold type. The committee has written this report for several different audiences. The main audience is upper management within the USGS and the VHP. However, the committee believes that scientists within the VHP will also find the report valuable. The report is written in such a manner as to be useful to congressional staff as well.
Author: Roberto Scarpa
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642800874
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 846
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Book Description
By the year 2000, the number of people at risk from volcanic hazards is likely to increase to around half a billion. Since 1980, significant advances have been made in volcano monitoring, the data from which provides the sole scientific basis for eruption prediction. Here, internationally renowned and highly experienced specialists provide 25 comprehensive articles covering a wide range of related topics: monitoring techniques and data analysis; modelling of monitoring data and eruptive phenomena; volcanic hazards and risk assessment; and volcanic emergency management. Selected case histories of recent volcanic disasters, such as Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, demonstrate that effective communication - between scientists, civil authorities, the media and the population at risk - is essential to reducing the danger.
Author: Fraser Goff
Publisher: University of New Mexico Press
ISBN: 0826345905
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 128
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Book Description
Formed by massive volcanic eruptions over a million years ago, the Valles Caldera offers scientists unprecedented opportunities for studying its geologic wonders, and now as a national preserve, it offers the public a unique outdoor experience.
Author: Dwight Raymond Crandell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Natural disasters
Languages : en
Pages : 110
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Book Description
Author: Andrea Bevilacqua
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 8876425772
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 234
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Book Description
This study provides innovative mathematical models for assessing the eruption probability and associated volcanic hazards, and applies them to the Campi Flegrei caldera in Italy. Throughout the book, significant attention is devoted to quantifying the sources of uncertainty affecting the forecast estimates. The Campi Flegrei caldera is certainly one of the world’s highest-risk volcanoes, with more than 70 eruptions over the last 15,000 years, prevalently explosive ones of varying magnitude, intensity and vent location. In the second half of the twentieth century the volcano apparently once again entered a phase of unrest that continues to the present. Hundreds of thousands of people live inside the caldera and over a million more in the nearby city of Naples, making a future eruption of Campi Flegrei an event with potentially catastrophic consequences at the national and European levels.
Author: John H. Latter
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642737595
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 621
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Book Description
The contributions in this book were presented, orally or as posters, at the International Volcanological Congress held in New Zealand from 1 to 9 February 1986, the centenary year of the Tarawera eruption of 10 June 1886. More than 500 people, from 29 countries, attend ed the Congress. Most of these works formed part of Symposium 4, "Volcanic Hazards - Prediction and Assess ment", convened by J.H. Latter, R.R. Dibble, D.A. Swanson and C.G. Newhall. The collection represents over half of the published abstracts of Symposium 4, together with three papers given at the Symposium, which lacked abstracts, and two which were part of Symposium 1 on pyroclastic flow deposits. The contribu tions cover a good proportion of the volcanically active parts of the world, with Italy, Japan, the West Indies and the USA especially well represented. Mount Erebus, Vulcano and Rabaul are individual volcanoes which have been treated in particular detail. Unfor tunately, there are no chapters in the book dealing with Africa, the Atlantic islands (except Iceland), Hawaii, Central America (except Mexico), or South America (in spite of the major disaster at Nevado del Ruiz Volcano in 1985).
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Volcanic activity prediction
Languages : en
Pages : 20
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Book Description
Author: Joachim Gottsmann
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 331958412X
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 313
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Book Description
This open access book summarizes the findings of the VUELCO project, a multi-disciplinary and cross-boundary research funded by the European Commission's 7th framework program. It comprises four broad topics: 1. The global significance of volcanic unrest 2. Geophysical and geochemical fingerprints of unrest and precursory activity 3. Magma dynamics leading to unrest phenomena 4. Bridging the gap between science and decision-making Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon. The fact that unrest may, or may not lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term volcanic hazard and risk assessment. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the understanding of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is incomplete. When a volcano evolves from dormancy into a phase of unrest, important scientific, political and social questions need to be addressed. This book is aimed at graduate students, researchers of volcanic phenomena, professionals in volcanic hazard and risk assessment, observatory personnel, as well as emergency managers who wish to learn about the complex nature of volcanic unrest and how to utilize new findings to deal with unrest phenomena at scientific and emergency managing levels. This book is open access under a CC BY license.