A Counter-Intuitive Model for the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate

A Counter-Intuitive Model for the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate PDF Author: Leonardo Baggiani
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29

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Book Description
With this work I try to venture an odd interpretation on the short term determinants of the Euro-Dollar exchange rate. The starting point is the Quantitative Theory of Money as formulated by Milton Friedman, where I have added a further money-demand component as a derivation of globally-based Asset Allocation strategies; such component involves an exchange rate's dependency on interest rates opposite to what follows from Friedman's theory. Tests on alternative solutions let me lean to choose a counter-intuitively featured model, where exchange rate depends on the whole history of interest rates, more precisely the interest-rates forward-contracts' final-values time series, and is led by financial-flows' speculative dynamics. Model features entails hypotheses of a very high substitutability between bonds issued in the two monetary areas involved, prevailing of further seemingly casual factors, and presence of inertia and persistence phenomena who prevent the exchange rate from moving accordingly to the main equilibrium conditions such as Purchasing Power Parity and Uncovered Interest Parity.

A Counter-Intuitive Model for the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate

A Counter-Intuitive Model for the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate PDF Author: Leonardo Baggiani
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29

Get Book Here

Book Description
With this work I try to venture an odd interpretation on the short term determinants of the Euro-Dollar exchange rate. The starting point is the Quantitative Theory of Money as formulated by Milton Friedman, where I have added a further money-demand component as a derivation of globally-based Asset Allocation strategies; such component involves an exchange rate's dependency on interest rates opposite to what follows from Friedman's theory. Tests on alternative solutions let me lean to choose a counter-intuitively featured model, where exchange rate depends on the whole history of interest rates, more precisely the interest-rates forward-contracts' final-values time series, and is led by financial-flows' speculative dynamics. Model features entails hypotheses of a very high substitutability between bonds issued in the two monetary areas involved, prevailing of further seemingly casual factors, and presence of inertia and persistence phenomena who prevent the exchange rate from moving accordingly to the main equilibrium conditions such as Purchasing Power Parity and Uncovered Interest Parity.

Euro-Dollar Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in an Estimated Two-Country Model

Euro-Dollar Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in an Estimated Two-Country Model PDF Author: Pau Rabanal
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48

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Book Description
We use a Bayesian approach to estimate a standard two-country New Open Economy Macroeconomics model using data for the United States and the euro area, and we perform model comparisons to study the importance of departing from the law of one price and complete markets assumptions. Our results can be summarized as follows. First, we find that the baseline model does a good job in explaining real exchange rate volatility but at the cost of overestimating volatility in output and consumption. Second, the introduction of incomplete markets allows the model to better match the volatilities of all real variables. Third, introducing sticky prices in Local Currency Pricing improves the fit of the baseline model but does not improve the fit as much as introducing incomplete markets. Finally, we show that monetary shocks have played a minor role in explaining the behavior of the real exchange rate, while both demand and technology shocks have been important.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007 PDF Author: Daron Acemoglu
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780226002026
Category : Macroeconomics
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
The NBER Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for important debates in contemporary macroeconomics and major developments in the theory of macroeconomic analysis and policy that include leading economists from a variety of fields. The papers and accompanying discussions in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007 address exchange-rate models; implications of credit market frictions; cyclical budgetary policy and economic growth; the impacts of shocks to government spending on consumption, real wages, and employment; dynamic macroeconomic models; and the role of cyclical entry of new firms and products on the nature of business-cycle fluctuations and on the effects of monetary policy.

Multi-Asset Risk Modeling

Multi-Asset Risk Modeling PDF Author: Morton Glantz
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0124016944
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 545

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Book Description
Multi-Asset Risk Modeling describes, in a single volume, the latest and most advanced risk modeling techniques for equities, debt, fixed income, futures and derivatives, commodities, and foreign exchange, as well as advanced algorithmic and electronic risk management. Beginning with the fundamentals of risk mathematics and quantitative risk analysis, the book moves on to discuss the laws in standard models that contributed to the 2008 financial crisis and talks about current and future banking regulation. Importantly, it also explores algorithmic trading, which currently receives sparse attention in the literature. By giving coherent recommendations about which statistical models to use for which asset class, this book makes a real contribution to the sciences of portfolio management and risk management. - Covers all asset classes - Provides mathematical theoretical explanations of risk as well as practical examples with empirical data - Includes sections on equity risk modeling, futures and derivatives, credit markets, foreign exchange, and commodities

Exchange Rate Theory and Practice

Exchange Rate Theory and Practice PDF Author: John F. Bilson
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226050998
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 542

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Book Description
This volume grew out of a National Bureau of Economic Research conference on exchange rates held in Bellagio, Italy, in 1982. In it, the world's most respected international monetary economists discuss three significant new views on the economics of exchange rates - Rudiger Dornbusch's overshooting model, Jacob Frenkel's and Michael Mussa's asset market variants, and Pentti Kouri's current account/portfolio approach. Their papers test these views with evidence from empirical studies and analyze a number of exchange rate policies in use today, including those of the European Monetary System.

Paris-Princeton Lectures on Mathematical Finance 2013

Paris-Princeton Lectures on Mathematical Finance 2013 PDF Author: Fred Espen Benth
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319004131
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 326

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Book Description
The current volume presents four chapters touching on some of the most important and modern areas of research in Mathematical Finance: asset price bubbles (by Philip Protter); energy markets (by Fred Espen Benth); investment under transaction costs (by Paolo Guasoni and Johannes Muhle-Karbe); and numerical methods for solving stochastic equations (by Dan Crisan, K. Manolarakis and C. Nee).The Paris-Princeton Lecture Notes on Mathematical Finance, of which this is the fifth volume, publish cutting-edge research in self-contained, expository articles from renowned specialists. The aim is to produce a series of articles that can serve as an introductory reference source for research in the field.

Working Paper Series

Working Paper Series PDF Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 594

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Book Description


International Comparisons of Prices, Output and Productivity

International Comparisons of Prices, Output and Productivity PDF Author: J. Salazar-Carrillo
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0444597719
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 344

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Book Description
The present volume provides a timely collection of material on the subject of international comparisons, contributed by leading scholars from an extensive range of relevant disciplines and geographical backgrounds. The papers in this volume have been classified into two broad groups united by overlapping themes. Part I includes essentially empirical papers intended to provide a clear picture of the different types of international comparisons that have been undertaken by various organizations and individuals. The papers relate to empirical studies of different sectoral and national income aggregates at both regional and global levels. The papers in Part II deal with methodological and analytical issues. Discussion of the appropriateness of various aggregation methods for international comparisons accounts for a major component of this section. The volume provides a set of stimulating studies on international comparisons of prices, output and productivity, and will provide a useful reference source for many interested readers around the world.

International Finance and Open-Economy Macroeconomics

International Finance and Open-Economy Macroeconomics PDF Author: Giancarlo Gandolfo
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9783540417309
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 648

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Book Description
"This book deals with the financial side of international economics and covers all aspects of international finance. There are many books and articles by exponents of alternative points of view. I know of no other book that provides the scope, balance, objectivity and rigor of the book." (Professor Jerome L. Stein, Brown University) From the reviews: "In this survey of international finance and open-economy macroeconomics, Gandolfo succeeds in meeting the needs of advanced undergraduate or lower-level graduate students through a largely textual and graphical approach, while at the same time presenting in the appendices explicit mathematical analyses for more advanced graduate students." (Journal of Banking & Finance 2004)

Asset Prices and Monetary Policy

Asset Prices and Monetary Policy PDF Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226092127
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 444

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Book Description
Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.