Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs PDF Download
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Author: International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513594478
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 116
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Book Description
This evaluation assesses how well IMF-supported programs helped to sustain economic growth while delivering adjustment needed for external viability over the period 2008–19. The evaluation finds that the Fund’s increasing attention to growth in the programs has delivered some positive results. Specifically, it does not find evidence of a consistent bias towards excessive austerity in IMF-supported programs. Indeed, programs have yielded growth benefits relative to a counterfactual of no Fund engagement and boosted post-program growth performance. Notwithstanding these positive findings, program growth outcomes consistently fell short of program projections. Such shortfalls imply less protection of incomes than intended, fuel adjustment fatigue and public opposition to reforms, and jeopardize progress towards external viability. The evaluation examines how different policy instruments were applied to support better growth outcomes while achieving needed adjustment. Fiscal policies typically incorporated growth-friendly measures but with mixed success. Despite some success in promoting reforms and growth, structural conditionalities were of relatively low depth and their potential growth benefits were not fully realized. Use of the exchange rate as a policy tool to support growth and external adjustment during programs was quite limited. Lastly, market debt operations were useful in some cases to restore debt sustainability and renew market access, yet sometimes were too little and too late to deliver the intended benefits. The evaluation concludes that the IMF should seek to further enhance program countries’ capacity to sustain activity while undertaking needed adjustment during the program and to enhance growth prospects beyond the program. Following this conclusion, the report sets out three recommendations aimed at strengthening attention to growth implications of IMF-supported programs, including the social and distributional consequences.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513594478
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 116
Get Book Here
Book Description
This evaluation assesses how well IMF-supported programs helped to sustain economic growth while delivering adjustment needed for external viability over the period 2008–19. The evaluation finds that the Fund’s increasing attention to growth in the programs has delivered some positive results. Specifically, it does not find evidence of a consistent bias towards excessive austerity in IMF-supported programs. Indeed, programs have yielded growth benefits relative to a counterfactual of no Fund engagement and boosted post-program growth performance. Notwithstanding these positive findings, program growth outcomes consistently fell short of program projections. Such shortfalls imply less protection of incomes than intended, fuel adjustment fatigue and public opposition to reforms, and jeopardize progress towards external viability. The evaluation examines how different policy instruments were applied to support better growth outcomes while achieving needed adjustment. Fiscal policies typically incorporated growth-friendly measures but with mixed success. Despite some success in promoting reforms and growth, structural conditionalities were of relatively low depth and their potential growth benefits were not fully realized. Use of the exchange rate as a policy tool to support growth and external adjustment during programs was quite limited. Lastly, market debt operations were useful in some cases to restore debt sustainability and renew market access, yet sometimes were too little and too late to deliver the intended benefits. The evaluation concludes that the IMF should seek to further enhance program countries’ capacity to sustain activity while undertaking needed adjustment during the program and to enhance growth prospects beyond the program. Following this conclusion, the report sets out three recommendations aimed at strengthening attention to growth implications of IMF-supported programs, including the social and distributional consequences.
Author: John Williamson
Publisher: MIT Press (MA)
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 708
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Book Description
The twenty-one contributions in this book assess the controversy surrounding the Fund and provide judgments about the criteria for Fund lending which should help readers understand and analyze both its ongoing role in smoothing adjustment to international payments imbalances and its currently critical position in responding to the debt crisis.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498343694
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 61
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Book Description
With single-digit inflation and substantial financial deepening, developing countries are adopting more flexible and forward-looking monetary policy frameworks and ascribing a greater role to policy interest rates and inflation objectives. While some countries have adopted formal inflation targeting regimes, others have developed frameworks with greater target flexibility to accommodate changing money demand, use of policy rates to signal the monetary policy stance, and implicit inflation targets.
Author: Yasemin Bal-Gunduz
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484394712
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
This paper aims to assess the economic impact of the IMF’s support through its facilities for low-income countries. It relies on two complementary econometric analyses: the first investigates the longer-term impact of IMF engagement—primarily through successive medium-term programs under the Extended Credit Facility and its predecessors (and more recently the Policy Support Instrument)—on economic growth and a range of other indicators and socioeconomic outcomes; the second focuses on the role of IMF shock-related financing—through augmentations of Extended Credit Facility arrangements and short-term and emergency financing instruments—on short-term macroeconomic performance.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498340164
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
This supplement aims to assess the economic impact of the Fund’s support through its facilities for low-income countries (LICs). It relies on two complementary econometric analyses: the first investigates the longer-term impact of Fund engagement—primarily through successive medium-term programs under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and its predecessors (and more recently the Policy Support Instrument (PSI))—on economic growth and a range of other indicators and socio-economic outcomes; the second focuses on the role of IMF shock-related financing—through augmentations of ECF arrangements and short-term and emergency financing instruments—on short-term macroeconomic performance. The empirical results shed some light on two channels through which different Fund facilities may have helped LICs respond to the global financial crisis—(i) by supporting a gradual buildup of macroeconomic buffers in the decades prior to the crisis and (ii) by providing liquidity support at the height of the crisis. The combination of strong pre-crisis buffers and crisis financing allowed LICs to pursue counter-cyclical policy responses that preserved spending and facilitated a rapid recovery.
Author: Yasemin Bal-Gunduz
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 149835193X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
This study explores whether IMF-supported programs in low-income countries (LICs) catalyze Official Development Assistance (ODA). Based on a comprehensive set of ODA measures and using Propensity Score Matching approach to address selection bias, we show that programs addressing policy or exogenous shocks have a significant catalytic impact on both the size and the modality of ODA. Moreover, the impact is greatest when LICs are faced with substantial macroeconomic imbalances or large shocks. Nevertheless, when countries attracting similar donor assistance before shocks are matched results for bilateral ODA turn insignificant, suggesting that the catalytic impact is attributed primarily to multilateral ODA.
Author: Elena Sciso
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319578553
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 262
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Book Description
This book investigates the strengths and weaknesses – in terms of transparency and compliance with the democratic principle – of Bretton Woods Institutions, considering the most important innovations from the original framework achieved through the introduction of independent accountability and complaint mechanisms (the Inspection Panel and Independent Evaluation Office), but also due to relevant reforms in the internal governance of the International Monetary Fund and the new financial assistance tools. One of its main focuses is on evaluating the socio-economic impact of conditionality in the countries requiring financial assistance, acknowledging the need to strengthen social protection policies in the adjustment programs. In addition, emphasis is given to the effects of the “constitutionalization” of the Washington Consensus in the European Union, with the establishment of the so-called “Berlin-Brussels-Frankfurt Consensus.”
Author: Ms.Monique Newiak
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475599269
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
We use the Synthetic Control Method to study the effect of IMF advice on economic growth, inflation, and investment. The analysis exploits the existence of IMF programs that do not involve any financing (Policy Support Instruments, “PSIs”). This enables us to focus on the effects of IMF monitoring, advice, and approval (as opposed to direct financial assistance). In addition, countries with non-financial programs are typically not crisis-struck – thereby mitigating the reverse causality problem and facilitating the construction of counterfactuals. Results suggest that treated countries add about 1 percentage point in annual real GDP per capita growth, with inflation being lower by some 3 percentage points per year. While we do not find evidence for an impact on total investment and the resulting capital stock, PSI-treatment does seem to stimulate foreign direct investment.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498340121
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
The 2009 reforms have broadly achieved their objective of closing gaps and creating a streamlined architecture of facilities that is better tailored to the diverse needs of LICs. Supported by the financing package to boost the PRGT’s lending capacity for 2009–14 and the accompanying doubling of access, the Fund was able to mount an effective response to LICs’ needs during the global financial crisis.
Author: Mr.Christian Mumssen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484359437
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
This paper studies the short and longer-term impact of IMF engagement in Low-Income Countries (LICs) over nearly three decades. In contrast to earlier studies, we focus on a sample composed exclusively of LICs and disentangle the different effects of IMF longer-term engagement and short-term financing using a propensity score matching approach to control for selection bias. Our results indicate that longer-term IMF support (at least five years of program engagement per decade) helped LICs sustain economic growth and boost resilience by building fiscal buffers. Interestingly, the size of IMF financing has no significant impact on economic growth, possibly pointing to the prominent role of IMF policy advice and institutional capacity building in the context of longer-term engagement. We also present evidence that the short-term IMF engagement through augmentations of existing programs or short-term and emergency facilities is positively associated with a wide range of macroeconomic outcomes. Notably, the IMF financial support has the greatest impact on short-term growth when LICs are faced with substantial macroeconomic imbalances or exogenous shocks.
