20% Chance of Rain PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download 20% Chance of Rain PDF full book. Access full book title 20% Chance of Rain by Richard B. Jones. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Richard B. Jones
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118116364
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 368
Get Book Here
Book Description
There are plenty of books on specialized risk topics but few that deal with the broad diversity and daily applicability of this subject. Risk applications require a robust knowledge of many attributes of this seemingly simple subject. This book teaches the reader through examples and case studies the fundamental (and subtle) aspects of risk - regardless of the specific situation. The text allows the reader to understand the concept of risk analysis while not getting too involved in the mathematics; in this method the reader can apply these techniques across a wide range of situations. The second edition includes new examples from NASA and several other industries as well as new case studies from legal databases. The many real-life discussion topics enable the reader to form an understanding of the concepts of risk and risk management and apply them to day-to-day issues.
Author: Richard B. Jones
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118116364
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 368
Get Book Here
Book Description
There are plenty of books on specialized risk topics but few that deal with the broad diversity and daily applicability of this subject. Risk applications require a robust knowledge of many attributes of this seemingly simple subject. This book teaches the reader through examples and case studies the fundamental (and subtle) aspects of risk - regardless of the specific situation. The text allows the reader to understand the concept of risk analysis while not getting too involved in the mathematics; in this method the reader can apply these techniques across a wide range of situations. The second edition includes new examples from NASA and several other industries as well as new case studies from legal databases. The many real-life discussion topics enable the reader to form an understanding of the concepts of risk and risk management and apply them to day-to-day issues.
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309102553
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 124
Get Book Here
Book Description
Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Author: Editors of Portable Press
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
ISBN: 1626868123
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 211
Get Book Here
Book Description
The math book for anyone who thinks they hate math, full of easy, entertaining and practical tricks for mentally solving problems in seconds. No matter how much you might try to avoid numbers, we all use math every day to calculate a tip, figure out an interest rate, or estimate the cost of the groceries in your cart. But the good news is, math can be easy—and even fun—if you know how to do it all in your head. With these simple and downright magical math tricks, you can do everyday math faster than it takes to dig out your phone and find the calculator app. Step-by-step and easy-to-memorize directions show more than 125 math operations anyone can do in their head. Plus, it features do-it-yourself math projects, puzzles, and a bonus section for advanced mathophiles. Get ready to tackle problems such as . . . • How to easily square any number • How to add three-digit numbers • How to use a mirror to measure the height of a building • How to make a ruler out of a dollar bill • How to use geometry to paint walls, cut floor tiling, and do other home renovations • How to subtract numbers . . . by adding And lots more . . . No calculator required.
Author: John D. Cox
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119806798
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 384
Get Book Here
Book Description
"Weather For Dummies is probably the best book written for a general audience about the subject." ―BILL GATES Find out what's really going on when it seems like the sky is falling with Weather For Dummies What exactly is happening when the wind blows, the clouds roll in, lightning flashes, and rain pours down? How do hurricanes whip into a frenzy, and where do tornadoes come from? Why do seasonal conditions sometimes vary so much from one year to the next? The inner workings of the weather can be a mystery, but Dummies can help. Packed with dozens of maps, charts, and stunning photographs of weather conditions, Weather For Dummies brings the science of meteorology down to earth, covering everything from weather basics to cloud types, seasonal differences, extreme weather events, climate change, and beyond. You'll learn how to: Predict the weather and prepare a forecast Use common weather terminology like a pro Identify different types of clouds Spot weather conditions that can lead to storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, and monsoons Observe fun weather phenomena like lightning, rainbows, sundogs, and haloes Talk about what impact weather has on the global ecosystem Get a handle on smog, the greenhouse effect, global warming, and other climate issues Featuring clear explanations and fun and easy activities you can do at home, you'll be ready – rain or shine – for the ever-changing skies above with Weather For Dummies.
Author: United States. National Weather Service
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Meteorology
Languages : en
Pages : 196
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Steven J. Miller
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400885388
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 752
Get Book Here
Book Description
The essential lifesaver for students who want to master probability For students learning probability, its numerous applications, techniques, and methods can seem intimidating and overwhelming. That's where The Probability Lifesaver steps in. Designed to serve as a complete stand-alone introduction to the subject or as a supplement for a course, this accessible and user-friendly study guide helps students comfortably navigate probability's terrain and achieve positive results. The Probability Lifesaver is based on a successful course that Steven Miller has taught at Brown University, Mount Holyoke College, and Williams College. With a relaxed and informal style, Miller presents the math with thorough reviews of prerequisite materials, worked-out problems of varying difficulty, and proofs. He explores a topic first to build intuition, and only after that does he dive into technical details. Coverage of topics is comprehensive, and materials are repeated for reinforcement—both in the guide and on the book's website. An appendix goes over proof techniques, and video lectures of the course are available online. Students using this book should have some familiarity with algebra and precalculus. The Probability Lifesaver not only enables students to survive probability but also to achieve mastery of the subject for use in future courses. A helpful introduction to probability or a perfect supplement for a course Numerous worked-out examples Lectures based on the chapters are available free online Intuition of problems emphasized first, then technical proofs given Appendixes review proof techniques Relaxed, conversational approach
Author: Arthur R. Kruckeberg
Publisher: University of Washington Press
ISBN: 9780295974774
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 500
Get Book Here
Book Description
Winner of the Pacific Northwest Booksellers Award Bounded on the east by the crest of the Cascade Range and on the west by the lofty east flank of the Olympic Mountains, Puget Sound terrain includes every imaginable topograhic variety. This thoughtful and eloquent natural history of the Puget Sound region begins with a discussion of how the ice ages and vulcanism shaped the land and then examines the natural attributes of the region--flora and fauna, climate, special habitats, life histories of key organisms--as they pertain to the functioning ecosystem. Mankind's effects upon the natural environment are a pervasive theme of the book. Kruckeberg looks at both positive and negative aspects of human interaction with nature in the Puget basin. By probing the interconnectedness of all natural aspects of one region, Kruckeberg illustrates ecological principles at work and gives us a basis for wise decision-making. The Natural History of Puget Sound Country is a comprehensive reference, invaluable for all citizens of the Northwest, as well as for conservationists, biologists, foresters, fisheries and wildlife personnel, urban planners, and environmental consultants everywhere. Lavishly illustrated with over three hundred photographs and drawings, it is much more than a beautiful book. It is a guide to our future.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Soil surveys
Languages : en
Pages : 84
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Daniel R. Denicola
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 026253603X
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 263
Get Book Here
Book Description
An exploration of what we can know about what we don't know: why ignorance is more than simply a lack of knowledge. Ignorance is trending. Politicians boast, “I'm not a scientist.” Angry citizens object to a proposed state motto because it is in Latin, and “This is America, not Mexico or Latin America.” Lack of experience, not expertise, becomes a credential. Fake news and repeated falsehoods are accepted and shape firm belief. Ignorance about American government and history is so alarming that the ideal of an informed citizenry now seems quaint. Conspiracy theories and false knowledge thrive. This may be the Information Age, but we do not seem to be well informed. In this book, philosopher Daniel DeNicola explores ignorance—its abundance, its endurance, and its consequences. DeNicola aims to understand ignorance, which seems at first paradoxical. How can the unknown become known—and still be unknown? But he argues that ignorance is more than a lack or a void, and that it has dynamic and complex interactions with knowledge. Taking a broadly philosophical approach, DeNicola examines many forms of ignorance, using the metaphors of ignorance as place, boundary, limit, and horizon. He treats willful ignorance and describes the culture in which ignorance becomes an ideological stance. He discusses the ethics of ignorance, including the right not to know, considers the supposed virtues of ignorance, and concludes that there are situations in which ignorance is morally good. Ignorance is neither pure nor simple. It is both an accusation and a defense (“You are ignorant!” “Yes, but I didn't know!”). Its practical effects range from the inconsequential to the momentous. It is a scourge, but, DeNicola argues daringly, it may also be a refuge, a value, even an accompaniment to virtue.
Author: Nate Silver
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 0143125087
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 577
Get Book Here
Book Description
"One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
