20% Chance of Rain PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download 20% Chance of Rain PDF full book. Access full book title 20% Chance of Rain by Richard B. Jones. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Richard B. Jones
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118116364
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 368
Get Book Here
Book Description
There are plenty of books on specialized risk topics but few that deal with the broad diversity and daily applicability of this subject. Risk applications require a robust knowledge of many attributes of this seemingly simple subject. This book teaches the reader through examples and case studies the fundamental (and subtle) aspects of risk - regardless of the specific situation. The text allows the reader to understand the concept of risk analysis while not getting too involved in the mathematics; in this method the reader can apply these techniques across a wide range of situations. The second edition includes new examples from NASA and several other industries as well as new case studies from legal databases. The many real-life discussion topics enable the reader to form an understanding of the concepts of risk and risk management and apply them to day-to-day issues.
Author: Richard B. Jones
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118116364
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 368
Get Book Here
Book Description
There are plenty of books on specialized risk topics but few that deal with the broad diversity and daily applicability of this subject. Risk applications require a robust knowledge of many attributes of this seemingly simple subject. This book teaches the reader through examples and case studies the fundamental (and subtle) aspects of risk - regardless of the specific situation. The text allows the reader to understand the concept of risk analysis while not getting too involved in the mathematics; in this method the reader can apply these techniques across a wide range of situations. The second edition includes new examples from NASA and several other industries as well as new case studies from legal databases. The many real-life discussion topics enable the reader to form an understanding of the concepts of risk and risk management and apply them to day-to-day issues.
Author: Peter Olofsson
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118626060
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 257
Get Book Here
Book Description
What are the chances? Find out in this entertaining exploration ofprobabilities in our everyday lives “If there is anything you want to know, or remind yourself, about probabilities, then look no further than this comprehensive, yet wittily written and enjoyable, compendium of how to apply probability calculations in real-world situations.” — Keith Devlin, Stanford University, National Public Radio’s “Math Guy” and author of The Math Gene and The Math Instinct “A delightful guide to the sometimes counterintuitive discipline of probability. Olofsson points out major ideas here, explains classic puzzles there, and everywhere makes free use of witty vignettes to instruct and amuse.” — John Allen Paulos, Temple University, author of Innumeracy and A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper “Beautifully written, with fascinating examples and tidbits of information. Olofsson gently and persuasively shows us how to think clearly about the uncertainty that governs our lives.” — John Haigh, University of Sussex, author of Taking Chances: Winning with Probability From probable improbabilities to regular irregularities, Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives investigates the often-surprising effects of risk and chance in our everyday lives. With examples ranging from WWII espionage to the O. J. Simpson trial, from bridge to blackjack, from Julius Caesar to Jerry Seinfeld, the reader is taught how to think straight in a world of randomness and uncertainty. Throughout the book, readers learn: Why it is not that surprising for someone to win the lottery twice How a faulty probability calculation forced an innocent woman to spend three years in prison How to place bets if you absolutely insist on gambling How a newspaper turned an opinion poll into one of the greatest election blunders in history Educational, eloquent, and entertaining, Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives is the ideal companion for anyone who wants to obtain a better understanding of the mathematics of chance.
Author: Pierre Barrouillet
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 1135083959
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 265
Get Book Here
Book Description
Thinking and reasoning are key activities for human beings. In this book a distinguished set of contributors provides a wide readership with up-to-date scientific advances in the developmental psychology of thinking and reasoning, both at the theoretical and empirical levels. The first part of the book illustrates how modern approaches to the study of thinking and reasoning have gone beyond the Piagetian legacy: through the investigation of avenues previously not explored, and by demonstrating that young children have higher capacities than was assumed within the Piagetian tradition. The second part focuses upon theoretical and empirical investigations of the interplay between logic and intuition in reasoning and decision making, and how these forms of thinking evolve with age, through the general framework of what is known as dual-process theories. Contrary to Piaget’s claim, it becomes apparent that elaborate adult reasoning could rely on some form of intuition. The Development of Thinking and Reasoning provides psychologists, educators and everyone interested in child development with an integrated and up-to-date series of chapters, written by prominent specialists in the areas of thinking, reasoning, and decision making.
Author: Jack Lyons
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 100386144X
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 412
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book aims to improve real-world critical thinking. Traditional critical thinking texts neglect two crucial facts. First, as psychologists have shown, many of our mistakes are caused not by faulty formal reasoning but because we bypass it in favor of intuitive, often unreliable heuristics. Second, good critical thinking requires not only the proper assessment of inference but also of our premises: the evaluation of information sources is of fundamental importance, especially in this internet era of fake news and politicized science. This highly innovative text is psychologically informed, both in its diagnosis of inferential errors and in teaching students how to watch out for, and circumnavigate, their natural intellectual blind spots. It also incorporates insights from epistemology and philosophy of science to formulate best practices for assessing information sources on the internet and other media. The result is a practical, hands-on primer for real-world critical thinking. The authors bring more than five combined decades of classroom experience to the subject, covering the usual core topics of deductive, inductive, causal, and probabilistic inference, argument identification, reconstruction, and diagramming, while also extending the text’s scope to include testimony, the nature and credibility of science, rhetoric, and dialectical argumentation. The Second Edition further develops and refines these innovations, combining in-depth discussion of “fake news” and conspiracy theories with exercises and projects designed to teach broadly applicable source assessment skills. There is also a more nuanced positive account of science that emphasizes its continuity with commonsense causal reasoning. For instructors, there are additional online resources, notably banks of exam questions with solutions and various class projects. Key Features: Uses contemporary psychological explanations and remedies for pervasive errors in belief formation. No other critical thinking text generally applies this psychological approach Rigorously addresses the evaluation of premises based on testimony, in particular the testimony of internet sources Carefully explains the concept of validity, paying particular attention to distinguishing logical possibility from other species of possibility Uses frequency trees as a simple and reliable alternative to more complicated Bayesian methods Uses arguments maps, which improve students’ reasoning and argument evaluation Key Updates to the Second Edition: Expanded discussion of the psychology of reasoning and belief, including treatment of motivated reasoning Uses a conventional truth-table–based approach to propositional logic while incorporating a more intuitive, psychologically informed approach to the logic of conditionals New Summary Boxes Enhanced treatment of testimony, with an expanded discussion of fake news, conspiracy theories, and the application of general epistemic principles to navigate the extremes of gullibility and unmotivated skepticism. New exercises that emphasize practical, hands-on source assessment skills An improved discussion of the nature of science emphasizing the central role of causal inference and the multi-generational, cumulative character of scientific knowledge A new Index of Arguments, summarizing the most common argument forms and associated defeaters for the inductive forms New online content, including exams and additional questions (plus solutions), suitable for upload to course management software (e.g., Blackboard, etc.) For online resources suitable for students and instructors, please see the appropriate link on the book’s Routledge web page: www.routledge.com/9781032317281
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309102553
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 124
Get Book Here
Book Description
Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Author:
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1394274459
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 1062
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : English language
Languages : en
Pages : 244
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: 関野孝雄
Publisher: ベレ出版
ISBN: 9784860641498
Category : Literary Collections
Languages : en
Pages : 256
Get Book Here
Book Description
外国人のお客様のお世話をするとき、海外出張に行くことになったときに役立つ表現集。電話での応対、道案内、お客様を出迎えるとき、見送るとき、食事のとき、ミーティングの合間、電車などの移動中、など、実は一番会話に困る場面、状況で使える表現が満載。Eメール表現も収録。海外事業部、海外赴任を長年経験した著者が、実地で本当に使える英語を紹介してくれます。外国人のお客様をアテンドすることになったときに必携の1冊です。
Author: Ray W. Cooksey
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9811525374
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 752
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book occupies a unique position in the field of statistical analysis in the behavioural and social sciences in that it targets learners who would benefit from learning more conceptually and less computationally about statistical procedures and the software packages that can be used to implement them. This book provides a comprehensive overview of this important research skill domain with an emphasis on visual support for learning and better understanding. The primary focus is on fundamental concepts, procedures and interpretations of statistical analyses within a single broad illustrative research context. The book covers a wide range of descriptive, correlational and inferential statistical procedures as well as more advanced procedures not typically covered in introductory and intermediate statistical texts. It is an ideal reference for postgraduate students as well as for researchers seeking to broaden their conceptual exposure to what is possible in statistical analysis.
Author: Robert P. Dobrow
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118589440
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 366
Get Book Here
Book Description
An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book’s emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language clarifies and illustrates key computational and theoretical results. Probability: With Applications and R helps readers develop problem-solving skills and delivers an appropriate mix of theory and application. The book includes: Chapters covering first principles, conditional probability, independent trials, random variables, discrete distributions, continuous probability, continuous distributions, conditional distribution, and limits An early introduction to random variables and Monte Carlo simulation and an emphasis on conditional probability, conditioning, and developing probabilistic intuition An R tutorial with example script files Many classic and historical problems of probability as well as nontraditional material, such as Benford’s law, power-law distributions, and Bayesian statistics A topics section with suitable material for projects and explorations, such as random walk on graphs, Markov chains, and Markov chain Monte Carlo Chapter-by-chapter summaries and hundreds of practical exercises Probability: With Applications and R is an ideal text for a beginning course in probability at the undergraduate level.
