Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting

Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting PDF Author: Francis X. Diebold
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691146802
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 223

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Book Description
Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.

Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting

Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting PDF Author: Francis X. Diebold
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691146802
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 223

Get Book Here

Book Description
Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.

Bond Pricing and Yield Curve Modeling

Bond Pricing and Yield Curve Modeling PDF Author: Riccardo Rebonato
Publisher:
ISBN: 1107165857
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 781

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Book Description
Rebonato provides an authoritative, clear, and up-to-date explanation of the cutting-edge innovations in affine modeling for government bonds, and provides readers with the precise tools to develop their own models. This book combines precise theory with up-to-date empirical evidence to build, with the minimum mathematical sophistication required for the task, a critical understanding of what drives the government bond market.

Advanced Fixed Income Analysis

Advanced Fixed Income Analysis PDF Author: Moorad Choudhry
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0080488188
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 199

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Book Description
This book is aimed at experienced practitioners in the corporate bond markets and is a specialised text for investors and traders. The author relates from both personal experience as well as his own research to bring together subjects of practical importance to bond market practitioners. He introduces the latest techniques used for analysis and interpretation, including:Relative value tradingApproaches to trading and hedgingDynamic analysis of spot and forward ratesInterest rate modellingFitting the yield curveAnalysing the long bond yieldIndex-linked bond analyticsCorporate bond defaults* Aspects of advanced analysis for experienced bond market practitioners* Complex topics described in an accessible style* Brings together a wide range of topics in one volume

A Practitioner's Guide to Discrete-Time Yield Curve Modelling

A Practitioner's Guide to Discrete-Time Yield Curve Modelling PDF Author: Ken Nyholm
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108982301
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 152

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Book Description
This Element is intended for students and practitioners as a gentle and intuitive introduction to the field of discrete-time yield curve modelling. I strive to be as comprehensive as possible, while still adhering to the overall premise of putting a strong focus on practical applications. In addition to a thorough description of the Nelson-Siegel family of model, the Element contains a section on the intuitive relationship between P and Q measures, one on how the structure of a Nelson-Siegel model can be retained in the arbitrage-free framework, and a dedicated section that provides a detailed explanation for the Joslin, Singleton, and Zhu (2011) model.

Term-Structure Models

Term-Structure Models PDF Author: Damir Filipovic
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540680152
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 259

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Book Description
Changing interest rates constitute one of the major risk sources for banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions. Modeling the term-structure movements of interest rates is a challenging task. This volume gives an introduction to the mathematics of term-structure models in continuous time. It includes practical aspects for fixed-income markets such as day-count conventions, duration of coupon-paying bonds and yield curve construction; arbitrage theory; short-rate models; the Heath-Jarrow-Morton methodology; consistent term-structure parametrizations; affine diffusion processes and option pricing with Fourier transform; LIBOR market models; and credit risk. The focus is on a mathematically straightforward but rigorous development of the theory. Students, researchers and practitioners will find this volume very useful. Each chapter ends with a set of exercises, that provides source for homework and exam questions. Readers are expected to be familiar with elementary Itô calculus, basic probability theory, and real and complex analysis.

Bond Portfolio Optimization

Bond Portfolio Optimization PDF Author: Michael Puhle
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 354076593X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 143

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Book Description
The book analyzes how modern portfolio theory and dynamic term structure models can be applied to government bond portfolio optimization problems. The author studies the necessary adjustments, examines the models with regard to the plausibility of their results and compares the outcomes to portfolio selection techniques used by practitioners. Both single-period and continuous-time bond portfolio optimization problems are considered.

Econometrics and Risk Management

Econometrics and Risk Management PDF Author: Thomas B. Fomby
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 1848551967
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 302

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Book Description
Covers credit risk and credit derivatives. This book offers several points of view on credit risk when looked at from the perspective of Econometrics and Financial Mathematics. It addresses the challenge of modeling defaults and their correlations, and results on copula, reduced form and structural models, and the top-down approach.

Mathematical Models of Financial Derivatives

Mathematical Models of Financial Derivatives PDF Author: Yue-Kuen Kwok
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540686886
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 541

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Book Description
This second edition, now featuring new material, focuses on the valuation principles that are common to most derivative securities. A wide range of financial derivatives commonly traded in the equity and fixed income markets are analysed, emphasising aspects of pricing, hedging and practical usage. This second edition features additional emphasis on the discussion of Ito calculus and Girsanovs Theorem, and the risk-neutral measure and equivalent martingale pricing approach. A new chapter on credit risk models and pricing of credit derivatives has been added. Up-to-date research results are provided by many useful exercises.

Analysing and Interpreting the Yield Curve

Analysing and Interpreting the Yield Curve PDF Author: Moorad Choudhry
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119141052
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 407

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Book Description
Understand and interpret the global debt capital markets Now in a completely updated and expanded edition, this is a technical guide to the yield curve, a key indicator of the global capital markets and the understanding and accurate prediction of which is critical to all market participants. Being able to accurately and timely predict the shape and direction of the curve permits practitioners to consistently outperform the market. Analysing and Interpreting the Yield Curve, 2nd Edition describes what the yield curve is, explains what it tells participants, outlines the significance of certain shapes that the curve assumes and, most importantly, demonstrates what factors drive it and how it is modelled and used. Covers the FTP curve, the multi-currency curve, CSA, OIS-Libor and 3-curve models Gets you up to speed on the secured curve Describes application of theoretical versus market curve relative value trading Explains the concept of the risk-free rate Accessible demonstration of curve interpolation best-practice using cubic spline, Nelson-Siegel and Svensson 94 models This advanced text is essential reading for traders, asset managers, bankers and financial analysts, as well as graduate students in banking and finance.

Empirical Dynamic Asset Pricing

Empirical Dynamic Asset Pricing PDF Author: Kenneth J. Singleton
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400829232
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 497

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Book Description
Written by one of the leading experts in the field, this book focuses on the interplay between model specification, data collection, and econometric testing of dynamic asset pricing models. The first several chapters provide an in-depth treatment of the econometric methods used in analyzing financial time-series models. The remainder explores the goodness-of-fit of preference-based and no-arbitrage models of equity returns and the term structure of interest rates; equity and fixed-income derivatives prices; and the prices of defaultable securities. Singleton addresses the restrictions on the joint distributions of asset returns and other economic variables implied by dynamic asset pricing models, as well as the interplay between model formulation and the choice of econometric estimation strategy. For each pricing problem, he provides a comprehensive overview of the empirical evidence on goodness-of-fit, with tables and graphs that facilitate critical assessment of the current state of the relevant literatures. As an added feature, Singleton includes throughout the book interesting tidbits of new research. These range from empirical results (not reported elsewhere, or updated from Singleton's previous papers) to new observations about model specification and new econometric methods for testing models. Clear and comprehensive, the book will appeal to researchers at financial institutions as well as advanced students of economics and finance, mathematics, and science.