An Econometric Analysis of the World Wheat Market and Simulation of Alternative Policies, 1960-80 PDF Download
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Author: Maurice W. Schiff
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Wheat
Languages : en
Pages : 76
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Author: Maurice W. Schiff
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Wheat
Languages : en
Pages : 76
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Author: Joy L. Harwood
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Agriculture
Languages : en
Pages : 124
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Author: Dorosh, Paul A.
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
Despite reforms in early 2021, including a devaluation of the currency and a liberalization of imports, there remain significant distortions in Sudan’s wheat value chain, especially related to subsidized sales prices of flatbread. This flatbread subsidy, a key component of wheat policy, is not well-targeted. Calculations based on 2009 national household survey data and current 2021 prices and wheat supply show that urban poor households annually receive slightly less from this subsidy than urban non-poor households (18,900 and 20,800 SDG/capita). Rural poor households receive only 2,700 SDG/capita. This paper presents the results of several simulations of a partial equilibrium model of Sudan’s wheat economy that are designed to analyze the impacts of recent shocks and various policy options. Model simulations show that increased wheat imports, such as those financed by food aid, add to supplies for processing into wheat flour, flatbread, and other wheat products, resulting in lower prices for consumers and increased consumption, but also disincentives for production. A 300,000 ton increase in wheat imports, as occurred in early 2021, results in an 8 percent increase in wheat consumption and a 35 percent decline in the market price of non-flatbread wheat products. Production falls by 12 percent. Since flatbread prices are unchanged, wheat consumption of the urban poor, for whom flatbread is the major wheat product consumed, increases by only 4 percent. Raising flatbread prices by 30 percent to reduce the size of the fiscal subsidy reduces total consumption of flatbread by 17 percent and sharply reduces wheat consumption and real incomes of the urban poor. All households suffer a loss of 41 to 45 percent in the value of flatbread subsidies received. The urban poor experience the largest decline in total consumption of wheat (14 percent) and in total income (11 percent). (The average total income loss for all households is only 3 percent.) Reducing the flatbread subsidy without a compensating income transfer would significantly reduce the welfare of the urban poor and likely threaten political stability. Our results suggest that a combination of key wheat policies involving high levels of imports – including injection of food aid wheat into the economy in late 2020 – and subsidized flatbread will significantly benefit urban poor households. Nonetheless, the are important data gaps on several aspects of the wheat sector, including no recent nationally representative household expenditure survey data. In addition, greater transparency, including publication of quantities and prices of government purchases, sales of wheat and wheat flour, and quantities and prices of subsidized flatbread across the country has the potential to significantly increase the efficiency of the entire wheat sector. As shown in this paper, Sudan’s wheat policies in recent years, such as increased wheat imports, price subsidies in the wheat value chain, and low prices of flatbread, have in general favored consumers, to the detriment of producers. These interventions in the wheat value chain, especially those related to subsidies on flatbread, have especially large effects on the welfare of urban households, making these policies particularly politically sensitive. However, they have entailed high fiscal costs, threatening macro-economic stability and crowding out other possible investments to promote growth and poverty reduction. Careful policy analysis and ongoing monitoring of outcomes and new developments will be needed to help guide the important choices ahead.
Author: Praveen M. Dixit
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Commerce
Languages : en
Pages : 72
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Author: Alexander H. Levis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Agriculture
Languages : en
Pages : 76
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Agriculture
Languages : en
Pages : 62
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Author: Andrew D O'Rourke
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9781560229339
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 406
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Book Description
Face the challenge of change in the global agricultural trade market! This insightful book presents a comprehensive overview of the trade situation facing agriculture in the 21st century. This esteemed collection of the field?s foremost researchers evaluates anticipated changes to the agricultural trade market and the competitiveness of commodities and products resulting from existing and potential international policies. Agricultural Trade Policies in the New Millennium provides an in-depth understanding of multilateral trade negotiations (past, present, and future) and the impact of regionalism on agricultural trade. It also analyzes trade issues specific to individual commodities, such as rice, wheat, and cotton. Agricultural Trade Policies in the New Millennium consolidates essential trade research into a one-of-a-kind reference source for economists, academics, and agriculture professionals. The book provides a detailed overview of current and potential trade situations, divided into three concise sections: key issues influencing trade negotiations from the perspective of developed and developing countries and the environment; commodity trade and trade policy issues concerning competitiveness and the international policy environment for coarse grains, cotton, rice, sugar, and wheat; and general issues related to multilateral and regional trade agreements, including policy tools within the World Trade Organization, anti-dumping actions, regionalism, price volatility, and the macroeconomic effects of trade liberalization. Agricultural Trade Policies in the New Millennium examines: key issues influencing trade negotiations commodity trade and trade policy issues issues and concerns related to multilateral and regional trade negotiations challenges facing trade policy prospects for the agricultural sector in the new millennium With international policy issues like the WTO’s Millennium Round and the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) in negotiation and a new United States farm bill pending, Agricultural Trade Policies in the New Millennium provides much-needed textbook analysis by expert researchers. This vital book will keep you in touch with current trade negotiations and policy decisions that are certain to hold major implications for the agricultural sector.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Agriculture
Languages : en
Pages : 92
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Book Description
Author: Raj Krishna
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN: 0896290409
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 84
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Book Description
The background of government policy and operations; The wheat model and results; The reduced form of the model; Programming simulations.
Author: Harry Mason Kaiser
Publisher: Peter Lang
ISBN: 9780820481449
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 376
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Book Description
Textbook
