Why Do Many Disinflations Fail? the Importance of Luck, Timing, and Political Institutions PDF Download
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Author: Mr.A. Javier Hamann
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451875452
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66
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Book Description
Many inflation stabilizations succeed only temporarily. Using a sample of 51 episodes of stabilization from inflation levels above 40 percent, we show that most of the failures are explained by bad luck, unfavorable initial conditions, and inadequate political institutions. The evolution of trading partners' demand and U.S. interest rates captures the effect of bad luck. Past inflation affects the outcome in two different ways: a long history of high inflation makes failure more likely, while a high level of inflation prior to stabilization increases the chances of success. Countries with short-lived political institutions, a weak executive authority, and proportional electoral rules also tend to fail. After controlling for all these factors, we find that exchange-rate-based stabilizations are more likely to succeed. These findings are robust across measures of failure (two dichotomous and one continuous), sample selection criteria, and estimation techniques, including Heckman's correction for the endogeneity of the anchor.
Author: Mr.A. Javier Hamann
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451875452
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66
Get Book Here
Book Description
Many inflation stabilizations succeed only temporarily. Using a sample of 51 episodes of stabilization from inflation levels above 40 percent, we show that most of the failures are explained by bad luck, unfavorable initial conditions, and inadequate political institutions. The evolution of trading partners' demand and U.S. interest rates captures the effect of bad luck. Past inflation affects the outcome in two different ways: a long history of high inflation makes failure more likely, while a high level of inflation prior to stabilization increases the chances of success. Countries with short-lived political institutions, a weak executive authority, and proportional electoral rules also tend to fail. After controlling for all these factors, we find that exchange-rate-based stabilizations are more likely to succeed. These findings are robust across measures of failure (two dichotomous and one continuous), sample selection criteria, and estimation techniques, including Heckman's correction for the endogeneity of the anchor.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic assistance
Languages : en
Pages : 984
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Book Description
Author: Andrey Kunov
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 754
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Commerce
Languages : en
Pages : 382
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Peter Isard
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 292
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Book Description
Since the adoption of the Milennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 2000, the challenge of reducing poverty around the world has been more prominent on the agenda of the international community. Relatively slow progress toward meeting the MDGs by the 2015 target date has added to the urgency of this effort. Two influential reports - The United Nations Millennium Project Report (the "Sachs Report") and the Commission for Africa Report (the "Blair Report") envisage substantial increases in aid flows to poor countries, especially to countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The International community sees increases in aid, along with improvements in recipient policies and freer global trade, as necessary for global prosperity and poverty reduction.
Author: Atish R. Ghosh
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 164
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Book Description
This publication contains a collection of papers which examine the design of IMF-supported programmes during the years 1995-2000 in both middle-income and low-income countries. The analysis covers objectives and outcomes, policy formulation and programme design, and experiences in relation to macroeconomic and structural policies.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : International finance
Languages : en
Pages : 432
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Book Description
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : International finance
Languages : en
Pages : 154
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 378
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Andres Arias Leiva
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451860528
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
Based on the observed behavior of monetary aggregates and exchange rates, we classify inflation-stabilization episodes into two categories: de facto exchange rate-based stabilizations (ERBS) and non-ERBS. Unlike the standard de jure ERBS studied in the literature, de facto ERBS encompass cases in which the central bank intervenes in the foreign exchange market but does not preannounce the use of an exchange rate anchor. The number of the de facto ERBS is twice as large as that of de jure ERBS. Output dynamics during disinflation do not differ significantly between these two groups. We conclude that empirical studies on the effects of exchange rate anchors must seek to disentangle the effects of their announcement from those related to their role in the remonetization process.
