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Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455210781
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and net exports. We also observe that real exchange rate misalignment due to overvaluation and higher volatility of the real exchange rate lower growth. Regarding the effect of undervaluation of the exchange rate on economic growth, the evidence is mixed and inconclusive. However, there is no evidence in the literature that Dutch disease reduces overall economic growth. Policy responses should aim at adequately managing the boom and the risks associated with it.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455210781
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
Get Book Here
Book Description
We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and net exports. We also observe that real exchange rate misalignment due to overvaluation and higher volatility of the real exchange rate lower growth. Regarding the effect of undervaluation of the exchange rate on economic growth, the evidence is mixed and inconclusive. However, there is no evidence in the literature that Dutch disease reduces overall economic growth. Policy responses should aim at adequately managing the boom and the risks associated with it.
Author: Nicolás E. Magud
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and net exports. We also observe that real exchange rate misalignment due to overvaluation and higher volatility of the real exchange rate lower growth. Regarding the effect of undervaluation of the exchange rate on economic growth, the evidence is mixed and inconclusive. However, there is no evidence in the literature that Dutch disease reduces overall economic growth. Policy responses should aim at adequately managing the boom and the risks associated with it.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513520733
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 228
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Book Description
This issue discusses a number of factors affecting global growth, as well as growth prospects across the world’s main countries and regions. It assesses the ongoing recovery from the global financial crisis in advanced and emerging market economies and evaluates risks, both upside and downside, including those associated with commodity prices, currency fluctuations, and financial market volatility. A special feature examines in detail causes and implications of the recent commodity price downturn; analytical chapters look at the effects of commodity windfalls on potential output and of exchange rate movements on trade.
Author: Mr.Juan P. Trevino
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463924674
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
The paper employs a heuristic comparative approach suggested by Ismail (2009) to search for evidence of Dutch disease in oil-rich countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). While these countries have benefitted from high international oil prices in recent years, they have also experienced relatively large real exchange rate appreciations, raising concerns regarding the presence of Dutch disease and casting doubts on their ability to achieve high growth and employment in the long run. To isolate from any dynamics related to the exchange rate regime, we focus on the 14 member countries that constitute the CFA franc zone. We separate them into net oil importers and net oil exporters and look at economic growth, the real exchange rate, and the agricultural and external sectors. Based on traditional models, our findings are broadly consistent with the presence of Dutch disease in the second group during the oil-price boom. Departing from these models yields mixed results, suggesting the need to employ a case-by-case approach.
Author: Weltbank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464806853
Category : Fiscal policy
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
While LAC continues its progress towards becoming a middle-class region, in 2013 poverty reduction was slower than in previous years. The bottom 40 percent of the population has also seen decelerating income growth since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Driving the lower gains in shared prosperity and poverty reduction is the region's slowing economic growth. Similarly, after more than a decade of steady decline, inequality has been stagnant since 2010 and remains high. Given the crucial role of labor earnings in poverty and inequality reduction, this report analyzes more deeply LAC's labor markets and its implications for the region's social gains going forward. It shows that the region's push to increase its human capital has yielded dividends; increases in the educational attainment of the labor force are evident across the region. Nonetheless, the substantial growth in wages observed during the last decade was not accompanied by significant changes in the labor market: agriculture and low-productivity, informal service employment continued to be key sources of income for the poor in LAC. Instead, most of the gains were seen in countries that benefitted from the commodity boom of the last decade. As the commodity boom fades and growth wanes, there is a risk that the social gains achieved in the century's first decade will erode.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513599542
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 288
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Book Description
According to the October 2016 "World Economic Outlook," global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2017. The forecast, revised down by 0.1 percentage point for 2016 and 2017 relative to April’s report, reflects a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following the June U.K. vote in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit) and weaker-than-expected growth in the United States. These developments have put further downward pressure on global interest rates, as monetary policy is now expected to remain accommodative for longer. Although the market reaction to the Brexit shock was reassuringly orderly, the ultimate impact remains very unclear, as the fate of institutional and trade arrangements between the United Kingdom and the European Union is uncertain. Financial market sentiment toward emerging market economies has improved with expectations of lower interest rates in advanced economies, reduced concern about China’s near-term prospects following policy support to growth, and some firming of commodity prices. But prospects differ sharply across countries and regions, with emerging Asia in general and India in particular showing robust growth and sub-Saharan Africa experiencing a sharp slowdown. In advanced economies, a subdued outlook subject to sizable uncertainty and downside risks may fuel further political discontent, with anti-integration policy platforms gaining more traction. Several emerging market and developing economies still face daunting policy challenges in adjusting to weaker commodity prices. These worrisome prospects make the need for a broad-based policy response to raise growth and manage vulnerabilities more urgent than ever.
Author: Juan Yepez
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513589741
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
Dutch disease is often referred as a situation in which large and sustained foreign currency inflows lead to a contraction of the tradable sector by giving rise to a real appreciation of the home currency. This paper documents that this syndrome has been witnessed by many emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) as a result of surges in capital inflows driven by accommodative U. S. monetary policy. In a sample of 25 EMDEs from 2000-17, U. S. monetary policy shocks coincided with episodes of currency appreciation and a contraction in tradable output in these economies. The paper also shows empirically that the use of capital flow measures (CFMs) has been a common policy response in several EMDEs to U.S. monetary policy shocks. Against this background, the paper presents a two sector small open economy augmented with a learning-by-doing (LBD) mechanism in the tradable sector to rationalize these empirical findings. A welfare analysis provides a rationale for the use of CFMs as a second-best policy when agents do not internalize the LBD externality of costly resource misallocation as a result of greater capital inflows. However, the adequate calibration of CFMs and the quantification of the LBD externality represent important implementation challenges.
Author: Sami Atallah
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing
ISBN: 1788318498
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 377
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Book Description
What is the future of the oil and gas sector in Lebanon? Following the recent discovery of these valuable resources in the southern Mediterranean, including in the Cypriot and Israeli offshore reserves, the possibility of Lebanon also becoming a petroleum-producing country has been raised. This collection of essays addresses the major challenges and opportunities that accompany the country's hope to join the petroleum club. Covering the key policy issues - from Lebanon's susceptibility to the oil curse, to the environmental risks of production - this book brings together expert analysis to offer answers at the institutional level. Of central importance, the contributors argue, is that for Lebanon to benefit from the discovery of petroleum, it must first reform its institutions with the full support of the voting public and civil society. Combining rigorous quantitative and qualitative research, the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies has produced here an essential book that puts petroleum in Lebanon, and the important questions that come with it, within a global perspective.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463902913
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 12
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Book Description
June 2011: The Q&A in this issue features seven questions on the global trade collapse of 2008-09 (by Rudolfs Bems); the research summaries are "The Impact of the Great Recession on Emerging Markets" (by Ricardo Llaudes, Ferhan Salman, and Mali Chivakul) and "The Missing Link between Dutch Disease, Appreciation, and Growth (by Nicolás E. Magud and Sebastián Sosa). The issue also lists the contents of the June 2011 issue of the IMF Economic Review, Volume 59 Number 2; visiting scholars at the IMF during April-June 2011; and recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes.
Author: Eliphas Ndou
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319622803
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 509
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Book Description
This book examines the macroeconomic and regulatory impact of domestic and international shocks on the South African economy resulting from the 2009 financial crisis. It also assesses the impact of the US economy’s eventual recovery from the crisis and the prospect of higher US interest rates in future. Told in three parts, the book explores associations between economic growth, policy uncertainty and the key domestic and international transmission channels, and transmission effects, of global financial regulatory and domestic macro-economic uncertainties on subdued and volatile economic recovery, financial channels, lending rate margins, and credit growth. The book concludes by extending its focus to the role of US monetary policy, capital flows and rand/US dollar volatility on the South African economy.
