What (Really) Accounts for the Fall in Hours After a Technology Shock? PDF Download
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Author: Mr.Nooman Rebei
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475505612
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
The paper asks how state of the art DSGE models that account for the conditional response of hours following a positive neutral technology shock compare in a marginal likelihood race. To that end we construct and estimate several competing small-scale DSGE models that extend the standard real business cycle model. In particular, we identify from the literature six different hypotheses that generate the empirically observed decline in worked hours after a positive technology shock. These models alternatively exhibit (i) sticky prices; (ii) firm entry and exit with time to build; (iii) habit in consumption and costly adjustment of investment; (iv) persistence in the permanent technology shocks; (v) labor market friction with procyclical hiring costs; and (vi) Leontief production function with labor-saving technology shocks. In terms of model posterior probabilities, impulse responses, and autocorrelations, the model favored is the one that exhibits habit formation in consumption and investment adjustment costs. A robustness test shows that the sticky price model becomes as competitive as the habit formation and costly adjustment of investment model when sticky wages are included.
Author: Mr.Nooman Rebei
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475505612
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41
Get Book Here
Book Description
The paper asks how state of the art DSGE models that account for the conditional response of hours following a positive neutral technology shock compare in a marginal likelihood race. To that end we construct and estimate several competing small-scale DSGE models that extend the standard real business cycle model. In particular, we identify from the literature six different hypotheses that generate the empirically observed decline in worked hours after a positive technology shock. These models alternatively exhibit (i) sticky prices; (ii) firm entry and exit with time to build; (iii) habit in consumption and costly adjustment of investment; (iv) persistence in the permanent technology shocks; (v) labor market friction with procyclical hiring costs; and (vi) Leontief production function with labor-saving technology shocks. In terms of model posterior probabilities, impulse responses, and autocorrelations, the model favored is the one that exhibits habit formation in consumption and investment adjustment costs. A robustness test shows that the sticky price model becomes as competitive as the habit formation and costly adjustment of investment model when sticky wages are included.
Author: Mr.Pau Rabanal
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451875657
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Author: Mr.Nooman Rebei
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 147558606X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
We empirically revisit the crowding-in effect of government spending on private consumption based on rolling windows of U.S. data. Results show that in earlier samples government spending is increasingly crowding in private consumption; however, this relation is reverted in the latest periods. We propose a model embedding non-separable public and private consumption in the utility function and rule-of-thumb consumers to assess the sources of non-monotonic changes in the transmission of the shock. The iterative full information estimation of the model reveals that changes in the co-movement between private and public spending is primarily driven by the fluctuations in the elasticity of substitution between private and public consumption, the share of financially constrained consumers, and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution.
Author: Lawrence J. Christiano
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 62
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Book Description
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475556659
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 14
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Book Description
The Research Summaries in the December 2012 IMF Research Bulletin look at "Market Failures and Macroprudential Policy" (Giovanni Favara and Lev Ratnovski) and "Measurement Matters for House Price Indices" (Mick Silver). The Q&A column looks at "Seven Questions on Turning Points of the Global Business Cycle." The Bulletin also includes a listing of recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, as well as a list of the top-viewed articles for the first three issues of IMF Economic Review in 2012. Information is also included on a call for papers for the conference "Asia: Challenges of Stability and Growth" to be held in Seoul in 2013.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 614
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Book Description
Author: Luca Guerrieri
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1437939074
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
IST shocks are often interpreted as multi-factor productivity (MFP) shocks in a separate investment-producing sector. However, this interpretation is strictly valid only when some stringent conditions are satisfied. Some of these conditions are at odds with the data. Using a two-sector model whose calibration is based on the U.S. Input-Output Tables, the authors consider the implications of relaxing several of these conditions. They show how the effects of IST shocks in a one-sector model differ from those of MFP shocks to an investment-producing sector of a two-sector model. MFP shocks induce a positive short-run correlation between consumption and investment consistent with U.S. data, while IST shocks do not. Illus. This is a print on demand report.
Author: Benjamin M. Friedman
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0444534717
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1729
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Book Description
How have monetary policies matured during the last decade? The recent downturn in economies worldwide have put monetary policies in a new spotlight. In addition to their investigations of new tools, models, and assumptions, they look carefully at recent evidence on subjects as varied as price-setting, inflation persistence, the private sector's formation of inflation expectations, and the monetary policy transmission mechanism. They also reexamine standard presumptions about the rationality of asset markets and other fundamentals. Stopping short of advocating conclusions about the ideal conduct of policy, the authors focus instead on analytical methods and the changing interactions among the ingredients and properties that inform monetary models. The influences between economic performance and monetary policy regimes can be both grand and muted, and this volume clarifies the present state of this continually evolving relationship. - Presents extensive coverage of monetary policy theories with an eye toward questions raised by the recent financial crisis - Explores the policies and practices used in formulating and transmitting monetary policies - Questions fiscal-monetary connnections and encourages new thinking about the business cycle itself - Observes changes in the formulation of monetary policies over the last 25 years
Author: Econometric Society. World Congress
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521524131
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 316
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Book Description
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Author: Nombulelo Gumata
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319665200
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 617
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Book Description
This book focuses on the implications of the South African labour market dynamics including labour market reforms and fiscal policy for monetary policy and financial stability. Evidence suggests there are benefits in adopting an approach that coordinates labour market policies and reforms, fiscal policy, price and financial stability. In particular, the benefits of coordinating policies present policymakers with policy options in cases where they are confronted by binding policy trade-offs and dilemmas, such as in cases when there is divergence in price and financial and economic growth outcomes. The empirical insights and policy recommendations are based on different techniques that include the counterfactual and endogenous-exogenous approaches, non-linearities introduced by thresholds and the impact of persistent and transitory shock effects. Themes covered in the book include various aspects of labour market conditions and reforms and their link to inflation and inflation expectations, the impact of the national minimum wage, the interaction between public and private sector wage inflation, economic policy uncertainty and employment, government debt thresholds, sovereign yields and debt ratings downgrades, labour productivity, the impact of inflation regimes on expansionary fiscal and monetary policy multipliers, the increase in government cost of funding on price and financial stability and the link between fiscal policy and credit dynamics.
