User's Guide to an Early Warning System for Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Latin American Countries PDF Download
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Author: Santiago Herrera
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Arts and Music
Languages : en
Pages : 22
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Book Description
"Models for an early warning system do a good job predicting vulnerability to macroeconomic crises in several Latin American countries"--Cover.
Author: Santiago Herrera
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 17
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Book Description
Models for an early warning system do a good job predicting vulnerability to macroeconomic crises in several Latin American countries.Herrera and Garcia develop an early warning system for macroeconomic vulnerability for several Latin American countries, drawing on the work of Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and Kaminsky (1988).They build a composite leading indicator that signals macroeconomic vulnerability, showing that, historically, crises tend to happen in certain vulnerable situations.Interested mainly in providing an operational tool, Herrera and Garcia use a different approach to the problem than Kaminsky did. First, they use fewer variables to generate the signals. Then, after the variables are aggregated, a signal is issued, depending on the behavior of the composite index. (Kaminsky's procedure was to generate signals with each variable and then aggregate them.)Their results are satisfactory both statistically and operationally.Statistically, Type I and Type II errors are smaller than those reported in previous papers.Operationally, this system of leading indicators is less costly to maintain, given fewer variables - which are widely available and reported with timeliness.Herrera and Garcia tested the models' out-of-sample predictive ability on crises that occurred after the first stage of their project was finished: Colombia (September 1998), Brazil (January 1999), and Ecuador (February 1999). In all cases the models correctly anticipated the speculative attacks.Moreover, Mexico's models, estimated with information available two years before the 1994 crisis, show that these signaling devices would have been useful for signaling the macroeconomic vulnerability before December 1994.This paper - a product of the Economic Policy Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to build tools that policymakers can use to prevent crises. The authors may be contacted at
[email protected] or
[email protected].
Author: Santiago Herrera
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Arts and Music
Languages : en
Pages : 22
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Book Description
"Models for an early warning system do a good job predicting vulnerability to macroeconomic crises in several Latin American countries"--Cover.
Author: Mr.Abdul Abiad
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451845138
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 61
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Book Description
Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize information contained in exchange rate dynamics. The model is estimated using data for the period 1972-99 for the Asian crisis countries, taking a country-by-country approach. The model outperforms standard EWSs, both in signaling crises and reducing false alarms. Two lessons emerge. First, accounting for the dynamics of exchange rates is important. Second, different indicators matter for different countries, suggesting that the assumption of parameter constancy underlying panel estimates of EWSs may contribute to poor performance.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1589067959
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 216
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Book Description
China’s growth performance since the start of economic reforms in 1978 has been impressive, but the gains have not been distributed equally across provinces. We use a nonparametric approach to analyze the variation in labor productivity growth across China’s provinces. This approach imposes less structure on the data than the standard growth accounting framework and allows for a breakdown of labor productivity into efficiency gains, technological progress, and capital deepening. We have the following results. First, we find that on average capital deepening accounts for about 75 percent of total labor productivity growth, while efficiency and technological improvements account for about 7 and 18 percent, respectively. Second, technical change is not neutral. Third, whereas improvement in efficiency contributes to convergence in labor productivity between provinces, technical change contributes to productivity disparity across provinces. Finally, we find that foreign direct investment has a positive and significant effect on efficiency growth and technical progress.
Author: Asian Development Bank
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230501060
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 164
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Book Description
Since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, East Asia has implemented a number of initiatives designed to strengthen monetary and financial cooperation, bolstering the region's resilience to economic and financial vulnerabilities. One such initiative is the ASEAN+3 Information Exchange and Policy Dialogue, which includes development of early warning systems (EWS) for financial crises. This book examines efforts to develop EWS models. Specifically, the book analyzes the current understanding of the causes of currency and banking crises, describes recent progress in developing and applying EWS models for currency and banking crises, reviews methodolgical issues, assesses the predictive power of EWS models and also highlights areas where further research is required to make these models more effective tools for policy analysis. The case studies apply both parametric and nonparametric approaches to EWS modleing using data from six East Asian countries.
Author: Santiago Herrera
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
The authors examine if observed asset prices in Latin America depart significantly from fundamentals-determined levels. These departures, or bubbles, are found to be equally determined by both country-specific and common external variables, contrary to previous studies that found that local factors were predominant in asset price determination in Latin America.
Author: Nashwa Saleh
Publisher: Anthem Press
ISBN: 0857289616
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 209
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Book Description
How did the US financial crisis snowball into USD 15 trillion global losses? This book offers a clear synthesis and original analysis of the various factors that led to the financial crisis of 2007-2010, and is intended as a supplementary course text for undergraduate and postgraduate students in finance or finance-related courses.
Author: IBP USA
Publisher: Lulu.com
ISBN: 1438767676
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 257
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Book Description
Grenada Investment and Business Guide - Strategic and Practical Information
Author: Ritva Reinikka
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Ajuste estructural - Uganda
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
"While macroeconomic reforms are necessary, firms' investment response is likely to remain limited without an accompanying improvement in public sector performance"--Cover.
Author: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475528515
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis.
