USDA Commodity Forecasts PDF Download
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Author: United States. General Accounting Office
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Commercial products
Languages : en
Pages : 96
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Book Description
Author: United States. General Accounting Office
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Commercial products
Languages : en
Pages : 96
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Book Description
Author: United States. General Accounting Office
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Agricultural price supports
Languages : en
Pages : 134
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Book Description
Author: Michael Adjemian
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
From 1977 through April 2019, USDA published monthly season-average price (SAP) forecasts for key agricultural commodities in the form of intervals meant to indicate forecasters' uncertainty but without attaching a confidence level. In May 2019, USDA eliminated the intervals and began publishing a single point estimate--a value that has a very low probability of being realized. We demonstrate how a density forecasting format can improve the usefulness of USDA price forecasts and explain how such a methodology can be implemented. We simulate 21)years of out-of-sample density-based SAP forecasts using historical data, with forward-looking, backward-looking, and composite methods, and we evaluate them based on commonly-accepted criteria. Each of these approaches would offer USDA the ability to portray richer and more accurate price forecasts than its old intervals or its current single point estimates. Backward-looking methods require little data and provide significant improvements. For commodities with active derivatives markets, option-implied volatilities (IVs) can be used to generate forward-looking and composite models that reflect (and adjust dynamically to) market sentiment about uncertainty--a feature that is not possible using backward-looking data alone. At certain forecast steps, a composite method that combines forward- and backward-looking information provides useful information regarding farm-level prices beyond that contained in IVs.
Author: Stephen MacDonald
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Exports
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
Author: United States. General Accounting Office
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Commercial products
Languages : en
Pages : 92
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Book Description
Author: United States. General Accounting Office. Program Evaluation and Methodology Division
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Agricultural estimating and reporting
Languages : en
Pages : 127
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Book Description
Author: United States. Department of Agriculture
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Agriculture
Languages : en
Pages : 540
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Book Description
Author: Paul Westcott
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1437929249
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 106
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Book Description
Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices. The projections are based on specific assumptions about macro-economic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments. The report provides a point of departure for discussion of alternative farm sector outcomes that could result under different assumptions. Prospects for the agricultural sector in the near term reflect continuing U.S. and global adjustments to the recession of 2008-09 and the subsequent economic recovery. Long-run developments for global agriculture reflect continued demand for biofuels, particularly in the U.S. and the European Union. Charts and tables.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 127
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Book Description
Author: United States. General Accounting Office
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Agricultural price supports
Languages : en
Pages : 127
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Book Description
