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Author: Philip Eyrikson Tetlock
Publisher: University of Michigan Press
ISBN: 9780472031436
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 438
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Book Description
9788472457904.txt
Author: Philip Eyrikson Tetlock
Publisher: University of Michigan Press
ISBN: 9780472031436
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 438
Get Book Here
Book Description
9788472457904.txt
Author: Philip Eyrikson Tetlock
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 438
Get Book Here
Book Description
9788472457904.txt
Author: Jeremy Salt
Publisher: Univ of California Press
ISBN: 0520261704
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 480
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Book Description
Politics & government.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 9780691027913
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 362
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Book Description
Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.
Author: James C. Murphy
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780522878363
Category : City planning
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
For some years, Melbourne's aborted East-West Link created intense picketing and protests, multiple court challenges, breathless media coverage and bitter politicking. The Link brought the downfall of the single-term Baillieu-Napthine Liberal government; its cancellation cost the state half a billion dollars; and it lives on in infamy, a byword in the Australian lexicon for political brinkmanship, waste and politicisation of infrastructure. In The Making and Unmaking of East-West Link, James C Murphy explores the saga from competing vantage points, detailing the layers of politics and intrigue that saturate infrastructure policymaking in Australia.
Author: Richard Ned Lebow
Publisher: Macmillan
ISBN: 1137278536
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 258
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Book Description
Examining the chain of events that led to the Great War and what could reasonably have been done differently to avoid it, an acclaimed political psychologist creates plausible worlds, some better, some worse, that might have developed.
Author: Gershom Gorenberg
Publisher: Harper Collins
ISBN: 0062097318
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 249
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Book Description
Prominent Israeli journalist GershomGorenbergoffers a penetrating and provocativelook at how the balance of power in Israel has shifted toward extremism,threatening the prospects for peace and democracy as the Israeli-Palestinianconflict intensifies. Informing his examination using interviews in Israel andthe West Bank and with access to previously classified Israeli documents, Gorenberg delivers an incisive discussion of the causes andtrends of extremism in Israel’s government and society. Michael Chabon, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The AmazingAdventures of Kavalier and Clay, writes, "until I read The Unmaking of Israel, I didn't think it could bepossible to feel more despairing, and then more terribly hopeful, about Israel,a place that I began at last, under the spell of GershomGorenberg's lucid and dispassionate yet intenselypersonal writing, to understand."
Author: Christina Hunter
Publisher: Christian Faith Publishing, Inc.
ISBN: 1098081056
Category : Biography & Autobiography
Languages : en
Pages : 302
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Book Description
Christina Hunter's oldest daughter and a basketball star, Sabria Hunter answered her call to report to West Point Military Academy to become an officer in the US Army and play Division 1 basketball in the summer of 2019. Following this experience, Christina, whom the readers will come to know as Tina, felt urged to write a book. Being hard-pressed as a working mom of six, she never thought this could ever be possible, so she pushed off the idea. The urge came again, and she told God she was willing to write the book but wanted a solid sign to make sure it was him that was asking her to take on this feat. It was on a random trip to Barnes and Noble that a miracle took place. As she was found leafing through a book, Tina was approached by a complete stranger who, she came to find out, was an author himself, who began asking her about her life and told her she needed to write a book about it and he had tips that could help her. She was astonished with the instruction God gave her through this man and vowed to keep her promise to God by telling the world of his love for her and her family. This is a riveting story of a broken girl whom God put back together again. It is a story about breaking the chains of self-doubt and learning to face fear while maneuvering through storms in life when there seems to be no hope in the fight. Raising West Point: The Unmasking of a Hero is just the beginning of an extraordinary life God made out of such an ordinary girl and then was faithful in doing amazing works in her kids' lives especially in the world of sports and school. If you are searching for love, peace, and happiness in your life, this is a must-read! If you want to raise kids to be more than survivors of this life but to engage in a purpose-driven, passionate life of hard work, determination, and discipline, you must hear these stories that God told her to write. Starting out as a single teenage mom and having been told she would amount to nothing, Tina chose to have faith and dared to be the best mom she could be through God, teaching her kids to be explosive while blowing the roof off the ceiling of their potential. Through this captivating book, she tells of her emotional journey in raising a very talented athlete in Sabria and then sending her off to the academy, followed by the struggles of hitting rock bottom after a devastating ACL injury during basketball season.
Author: Mike McGovern
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226925099
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 311
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Book Description
"... A historical ethnography of the socialist period in Guinea"--Page 5.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400888816
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 368
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Book Description
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
