Uncertainty in American Politics PDF Download
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Author: Barry C. Burden
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521012126
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 270
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Book Description
This book represents an exciting intellectual meeting of researchers from diverse subfields to analyze how and why uncertainty affects American politics. It seeks to reconnect research traditions that have seldom spoken to one another. Though used by formal theorists, empiricists, and historians in a parallel fashion for a number of years, the notion of uncertainty has often been introduced only to explain away anomalies, provide backing for a larger argument, or justify a particular methodology. Uncertainty has rarely been considered in its own right or as a concept that might connect researchers from different subfields.
Author: Barry C. Burden
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521012126
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 270
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Book Description
This book represents an exciting intellectual meeting of researchers from diverse subfields to analyze how and why uncertainty affects American politics. It seeks to reconnect research traditions that have seldom spoken to one another. Though used by formal theorists, empiricists, and historians in a parallel fashion for a number of years, the notion of uncertainty has often been introduced only to explain away anomalies, provide backing for a larger argument, or justify a particular methodology. Uncertainty has rarely been considered in its own right or as a concept that might connect researchers from different subfields.
Author: Andreas Schedler
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 0199680329
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 508
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Book Description
This volume offers a major new theory of authoritarian politics. It studies regime struggles between government and opposition under electoral authoritarianism and argues that autocracies suffer from institutional uncertainties.
Author: Gergana Dimova
Publisher: ibidem
ISBN: 9783838213859
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This timely book provides a comprehensive analysis of political uncertainty and one of the first efforts to empirically measure it. Gergana Dimova compares political ambiguity within both established as well as unconsolidated democracies and explores institutional, behavioral, and media factors influencing such uncertainty. Combining aggregate statistical analysis and qualitative case studies, she seeks to provide answers to some hotly discussed questions of comparative politics, such as: To what extent is uncertainty invariable and unavoidable in political life? Why does uncertainty arise and how is it affecting liberal democracies? In conclusion, Dimova argues that even in so-called "managed democracies," such as Russia, uncertainty is rife. Yet it is of a very different type there than ambiguity in more established democracies, such as Germany. Overall, this book furnishes important insights about the value of uncertain actions in political life and useful tips about how and when to combat it.
Author: Jeffrey A. Friedman
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0190938048
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 272
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Book Description
Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. Yet there is almost always room for reasonable people to disagree about what that uncertainty entails. No one can reliably predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the countless other risks that shape foreign policy choices. Many scholars and practitioners therefore believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts - that it is, at best, a waste of time to debate uncertain judgments that will often prove to be wrong. In War and Chance, Jeffrey A. Friedman shows how foreign policy officials often try to avoid the challenge of assessing uncertainty, and argues that this behavior undermines high-stakes decision making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, he explains how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any foreign policy debate. A clear-eyed examination of the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty, War and Chance provides scholars and practitioners with new foundations for understanding one of the most controversial elements of foreign policy discourse.
Author: Jeffrey A. Friedman
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0190938021
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 241
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Book Description
"Over the past two decades, the most serious problems with U.S. foreign policy have revolved around the challenge of assessing uncertainty. Past experiences have shown that there is an urgent need to find ways of improving the ways in which foreign policy analysts assess uncertainty, and the ways in which foreign policy decision makers account for risk when evaluating high-stakes choices. This book shows shows how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in amanner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices." (éd.).
Author: Pawel Surowiec
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030545520
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 373
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Book Description
This edited book explores the multi-layered relationships between public diplomacy and intensified uncertainties stemming from transnational political trends. It is the latest wave of political uncertainty that provides the background as well as yields evidence scrutinised by authors contributing to this book. The book argues that due to a state of perpetual crises, the simultaneity of diplomatic tensions and new digital modalities of power, international politics increasingly resembles a networked set of hyper-realities. Embracing multi-polar competition, superpowers such as Russia flex their muscles over their neighbours; celebrated ‘success stories’ of democratisation – Hungary, Poland and Czechia – move towards illiberal governance; old players of international politics such as Britain and America re-claim “greatness”, while other states, like China, adapt expansionist foreign policy goals. The contributors to this book consider the different ways in which transnational political trends and digitalisation breed uncertainty and shape the practice of public diplomacy.
Author: Claudio Cioffi-Revilla
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521589154
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 372
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Book Description
Uncertainty is an ever-present and ineradicable aspect of politics. It affects all important issues of governance and policy, in both domestic and international contexts. Rather than treating the uncertainty of politics as a mystery, this book provides an original and direct treatment of political uncertainty as a scientifically-knowable phenomenon with well-defined principles and substantive properties. Specific applications of this theory of political uncertainty are demonstrated in diverse areas of politics, examining such questions as when and how wars break out, when and how governments collapse, and when and how political cooperation emerges. The author shows how probability and mathematical modeling can play a central role in understanding such complex and fundamental issues.
Author: Sebastian Rosato
Publisher: Yale University Press
ISBN: 0300258682
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 373
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Book Description
Why the future of great power politics is likely to resemble its dismal past Can great powers be confident that their peers have benign intentions? States that trust each other can live at peace; those that mistrust each other are doomed to compete for arms and allies and may even go to war. Sebastian Rosato explains that states routinely lack the kind of information they need to be convinced that their rivals mean them no harm. Even in cases that supposedly involved mutual trust—Germany and Russia in the Bismarck era; Britain and the United States during the great rapprochement; France and Germany, and Japan and the United States in the early interwar period; and the Soviet Union and United States at the end of the Cold War—the protagonists mistrusted each other and struggled for advantage. Rosato argues that the ramifications of his argument for U.S.–China relations are profound: the future of great power politics is likely to resemble its dismal past.
Author: Sharon Smith
Publisher: Haymarket Books
ISBN: 1608468747
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 170
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Book Description
“This collection contains everything we need to understand the world that gave us Trump, and to arm ourselves for the battles to come” (Sarah Jaffe, author of Necessary Trouble: Americans in Revolt). The Democratic Party and mainstream liberal organizations have shown themselves to be completely inadequate to address the key questions facing working people today. The corporate-friendly wing of the party, especially in the aftermath of the Great Recession in 2008, has created conditions that led to the Trump phenomenon in the international context of rising right-wing populism. These essays from a wide variety of thinkers delve into topics of economic inequality and exploitation, gender and cultural identity, and how the neglect of the working class by establishment politicians has had consequences that urgently need to be addressed.
Author: Jeffrey M. Stonecash
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 0415508444
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 146
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Book Description
There is a clear discrepancy between the ideal role of political parties expressed in many textbooks and the reality that we see playing out in politics. This book gives us a big picture analysis that helps explain what is happening in American electoral politics.
