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Author: Jim W. Hall
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780784413609
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM) and the Sixth International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis (ISUMA), held in Liverpool, UK, July 13-16, 2014. Sponsored by the Institute for Risk and Uncertainty and the Virtual Engineering Centre of the University of Liverpool, the Environmental Change Institute of the University of Oxford, and the Council on Disaster Risk Management of ASCE. Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management, CDRM 9, contains 290 peer-reviewed papers that build upon recent significant advances in the quantification, mitigation, and management of risk and uncertainty. These papers focus on decision making and multi-disciplinary developments to address the demands and challenges evolving from the rapidly growing complexity of real-world problems. Topics include: risk assessment and management of critical infrastructure projects; performance-based and reliability-based structural optimization under uncertainty; verified and stochastic approaches to modeling and simulation under uncertainty; risk management for floods, tsunamis, earthquakes, and other natural hazards; risk and uncertainty modeling in transportation and logistics; and geotechnical risk, uncertainty, and decision making. These papers will be valuable to experts, decision-makers, and others involved in assessing, planning responses to, and managing vulnerability and risk.
Author: Jim W. Hall
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780784413609
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book
Book Description
Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM) and the Sixth International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis (ISUMA), held in Liverpool, UK, July 13-16, 2014. Sponsored by the Institute for Risk and Uncertainty and the Virtual Engineering Centre of the University of Liverpool, the Environmental Change Institute of the University of Oxford, and the Council on Disaster Risk Management of ASCE. Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management, CDRM 9, contains 290 peer-reviewed papers that build upon recent significant advances in the quantification, mitigation, and management of risk and uncertainty. These papers focus on decision making and multi-disciplinary developments to address the demands and challenges evolving from the rapidly growing complexity of real-world problems. Topics include: risk assessment and management of critical infrastructure projects; performance-based and reliability-based structural optimization under uncertainty; verified and stochastic approaches to modeling and simulation under uncertainty; risk management for floods, tsunamis, earthquakes, and other natural hazards; risk and uncertainty modeling in transportation and logistics; and geotechnical risk, uncertainty, and decision making. These papers will be valuable to experts, decision-makers, and others involved in assessing, planning responses to, and managing vulnerability and risk.
Author: Jonathan Rougier
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107310768
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783704501486
Category : Flood damage prevention
Languages : en
Pages : 85
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Book Description
Author: V.T. Covello
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1468453173
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 523
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Book Description
The subject of this volume--uncertainties in risk assessment and management--reflects an important theme in health, safety, and environ mental decision making. MOst technological hazards are characterized by substantial uncertainty. Recent examples include nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, asbestos in schools, carcinogens in food, and hazardous waste. realing with such uncertainty is arguably the most difficult and challeng ing task facing risk assessors and managers today. Four primary sources of uncertainty in risk assessment and management can be identified: (1) uncertainties about definitions; (2) uncertainties about scientific facts; (3) uncertainties about risk perceptions and atti tudes; and (4) uncertainties about values. Uncertainties about definitions derive primarily from disagreements about the meaning and interpretation of key concepts, such as probability. Uncertainties about scientific facts derive primarily from disagreements about failure modes, the probability and magnitude of adverse health or environmental consequences, cause and effect relationships, dose-response relationships, and exposure patterns. Uncertainties about risk perceptions and attitudes derive primarily from disagreements about what constitutes a significant or acceptable level of risk. Uncertainties about values derive primarily from disagreements about the desirability or worth of alternative risk management actions or conse quences. The papers in this volume address each of these sources of uncertainty from a variety of perspectives. Reflecting the broad scope of risk assess ment and risk management research, the papers include contributions from safety engineers, epidemiologists, toxicologists, chemists, biostatisticians, biologists, decision analysts, economists, psychologists, political scien tists, sociologists, ethicists, and lawyers.
Author: Karin Riley
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119027861
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 356
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Book Description
Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction
Author: Godwell Nhamo
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030742628
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 283
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Book Description
The subject of tropical cyclones in Southern Africa, also known as hurricanes or typhoons in other regions of the world, has been growing over the past few decades. However, there is still limited literature on foundational and fundamental topics on the matter. To this end, this book addresses this gap, citing some examples from both historic and recent tropical cyclones. The book presents meteorological and climatic aspects of tropical cyclones, including reviews on forecasting, warning message dissemination and public response aspects of early warning systems with a focus on the Tropical Cyclones Idai and Kenneth. Fundamentals in disaster risk reduction (DRR) are also discussed moving from the provisions of the Hyogo Framework for Action (2005–2015), to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015–2030). Climate change issues are central to the publication, as well as the role of information and communication technologies in DRR and management. The book also tackles some challenges and opportunities associated with the implementation of regional legal and institutional frameworks on DRR. The book comes as part of a series with three volumes. The other volumes include “Cyclones in Southern Africa Vol. 1: Interfacing the Catastrophic Impact of Cyclone Idai with SDGs in Zimbabwe” and “Cyclones in Southern Africa Vol 3: Implications for the Sustainable Development Goals”. To this end, this book is suitable as a read for several professionals and disciplines such as tourism and hospitality studies, economics, sustainable development, development studies, environmental sciences, arts, geography, life sciences, politics, planning and public health.
Author: Abhas K. Jha
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0821398318
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 205
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Book Description
Disaster risk management is essential in the fight against poverty. Disasters can, in an instant, wipe out decades of hard-fought poverty reduction and development gains and push countless households into poverty. Disasters disproportionally affect the poor: Vulnerable and marginalized groups, including women, children, the elderly, and people with disabilities, are at particular risk. East Asia and the Pacific is the most disaster-stricken region in the world, suffering from small recurrent as well as rare high-impact events. East Asia is rapidly urbanizing, and cities are becoming disaster hotspots. Unplanned or poorly planned urbanization, which puts more people and assets in harm’s way, is the single largest driver of disaster risk. There is deep uncertainty about future disaster and climate risks, challenging our ability to adapt to new developments and changing the physical and natural environment. Decision makers can make a significant difference by effectively managing disaster risk and building resilience. With education and communication, preparedness, and investments, urbanization can be channeled as a tremendous positive force for development. By decreasing disaster exposure and vulnerability through systematic assessments and communication of risks, better land-use planning, and many other practical measures, the impacts of natural hazards can be reduced significantly. At the same time, it is necessary to recognize that the risks of disasters cannot be entirely eliminated, and countries need to plan for failure by considering different scenarios, especially within complex systems and networks. Preventive investments in risk reduction and emergency preparedness can be extremely cost-effective and can greatly reduce the impact of natural hazards. Governments can prioritize actions based on informed decisions about the level of risk to reduce the risks from disasters. Public investments, such as early-warning systems, retrofitting of critical infrastructure at risk, and mainstreaming systematic risk assessments into relevant public investment planning processes, can help to reduce poverty and promote sustainable economic growth. The World Bank supports countries around the world in mainstreaming a comprehensive and integrated approach to disaster risk management into development. The World Bank provides analytical and advisory services, helps to build climate and disaster resilience into core investments across sectors, and offers unique financial solutions to better manage the contingent fiscal risks from disasters.
Author: Howard Kunreuther
Publisher: University of Pennsylvania Press
ISBN: 0812296222
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 415
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Book Description
Whether man-made or naturally occurring, large-scale disasters can cause fatalities and injuries, devastate property and communities, savage the environment, impose significant financial burdens on individuals and firms, and test political leadership. Moreover, global challenges such as climate change and terrorism reveal the interdependent and interconnected nature of our current moment: what occurs in one nation or geographical region is likely to have effects across the globe. Our information age creates new and more integrated forms of communication that incur risks that are difficult to evaluate, let alone anticipate. All of this makes clear that innovative approaches to assessing and managing risk are urgently required. When catastrophic risk management was in its inception thirty years ago, scientists and engineers would provide estimates of the probability of specific types of accidents and their potential consequences. Economists would then propose risk management policies based on those experts' estimates with little thought as to how this data would be used by interested parties. Today, however, the disciplines of finance, geography, history, insurance, marketing, political science, sociology, and the decision sciences combine scientific knowledge on risk assessment with a better appreciation for the importance of improving individual and collective decision-making processes. The essays in this volume highlight past research, recent discoveries, and open questions written by leading thinkers in risk management and behavioral sciences. The Future of Risk Management provides scholars, businesses, civil servants, and the concerned public tools for making more informed decisions and developing long-term strategies for reducing future losses from potentially catastrophic events. Contributors: Mona Ahmadiani, Joshua D. Baker, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Cary Coglianese, Gregory Colson, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Nate Dieckmann, Robin Dillon, Baruch Fischhoff, Jeffrey A. Friedman, Robin Gregory, Robert W. Klein, Carolyn Kousky, Howard Kunreuther, Craig E. Landry, Barbara Mellers, Robert J. Meyer, Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Robert Muir-Wood, Mark Pauly, Lisa Robinson, Adam Rose, Paul J. H. Schoemaker, Paul Slovic, Phil Tetlock, Daniel Västfjäll, W. Kip Viscusi, Elke U. Weber, Richard Zeckhauser.
Author: Jose Manuel Mendes
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0128187514
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 164
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Book Description
Strengthening Disaster Risk Governance to Manage Disaster Risk presents the second principle from the UNISDR Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015-2030. The framework includes discussion of risk and resilience from both a theoretical and governance perspective in light of the ideas that are shaping our common future and presents innovative tools and best practices in reducing risk and building resilience. Combining the applications of social, financial, technological, design, engineering and nature-based approaches, the volume addresses rising global priorities and focuses on strengthening the global understanding of risk governance practices, initiatives and trends. Focusing on disaster risk governance at the national, regional, and global levels, it presents both historic and contemporary issues, asking researchers and governments how they can use technological advances, risk and resilience metrics and modeling, business continuity practices, and past experiences to understand the disaster recovery process and manage risk. Follows the global frameworks for disaster risk reduction and sustainability, specifically the UNISDR Sendai Framework for DRR, 2015-2030 Addresses lessons learned and future paths in disaster risk governance models Integrates public and private interests in risk governance Presents methodologies dealing with risk uncertainty, ambiguity and complexity
Author: Mika Shimizu
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9811073627
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 145
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Book Description
This is the first book to articulate resilience-based public policy for a constantly changing, complex, and uncertain risk society. Its primary focus is on operationalizing resilience, i.e., on incorporating elements of resilience in public policy in the context of our modern risk society.While there is a wealth of literature on resilience and disaster risk management, there are few publications that focus on the nexus of resilience and public policy, resulting in gaps between various fields and public policy for resilient societies and disaster risk management. In response, this book integrates the latest theoretical insights on public policy and resilience and the latest practical analyses of case studies such as the Tohoku Disaster (Great East Japan Earthquake) in 2011 and Hurricane Sandy on the North American East Coast in 2012 to provide policy tools for future resilient societies and disaster risk management. The recent disaster cases illustrate that our changing, complex and uncertain risk environment requires far more resilience-based public policy through co-production of knowledge than is normally required for conventional disasters. By linking various fields and public policy, the book articulates a resilience-based public policy, i.e., the incorporation of resilience into various entities by designing and implementing “linkages.” These include national-to-local linkages, linkages between different entities such as scientific communities and decision makers, and linkages between financial, human, and information resources. Thus, the nexus of resilience and public policy presented in this book aims at better public policy to face a changing and complex risk society, together with fundamental uncertainties at regional, national, and local levels around the world.
