Author: Lonnie Stevans
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781481271226
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 44
Get Book Here
Book Description
The econometric literature on unit roots took off after the publication of the paper by Nelson and Plosser (1982) that argued that most macroeconomic series have unit roots and that this is important for the analysis of macroeconomic policy.Yule (1926) suggested that regressions based on trending time series data can be spurious. This problem of spurious correlation was further pursued by Granger and Newbold (1974) and this also led to the development of the concept of cointegration (lack of cointegration implies spurious regression). The pathbreaking paper by Granger (1981), first presented at a conference at the University of Florida in 1980, did not "catch fire" until about five years later, and now the literature on cointegration has exploded. As for historical antecedents, Hendry and Morgan (1989) argue that Frisch's concept of multicollinearity in 1934 can be viewed as a forerunner of the modern concept of cointegration.The recent developments on unit roots and cointegration have changed the way time series analysis is conducted. The publication of the book by Box and Jenkins (1970) changed the methods of time series analysis, but the recent developments have formalized and made systematic the ad hoc methods in Box and Jenkins. In addition, the asymptotic theory for these models has just recently been developed.
Author: G. S. Maddala
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521587822
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 528
Get Book Here
Book Description
A comprehensive review of unit roots, cointegration and structural change from a best-selling author.
Author: Gebhard Kirchgässner
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642334350
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 326
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book presents modern developments in time series econometrics that are applied to macroeconomic and financial time series, bridging the gap between methods and realistic applications. It presents the most important approaches to the analysis of time series, which may be stationary or nonstationary. Modelling and forecasting univariate time series is the starting point. For multiple stationary time series, Granger causality tests and vector autogressive models are presented. As the modelling of nonstationary uni- or multivariate time series is most important for real applied work, unit root and cointegration analysis as well as vector error correction models are a central topic. Tools for analysing nonstationary data are then transferred to the panel framework. Modelling the (multivariate) volatility of financial time series with autogressive conditional heteroskedastic models is also treated.
Author: Gebhard Kirchgässner
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9783540687351
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 288
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book presents modern developments in time series econometrics that are applied to macroeconomic and financial time series. It contains the most important approaches to analyze time series which may be stationary or nonstationary.
Author: Colin P. Hargreaves
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 336
Get Book Here
Book Description
Nonstationary Time Series Analysis and Cointegration shows major developments in the econometric analysis of the long run (of nonstationarity and cointegration) - a field which has developed dramatically over the last twelve years to have a profound effect on econometric analysis in general. The papers here describe and evaluate new methods, provide useful overviews, and show detailed implementations helpful to practitioners. Papers include two substantive analyses of economic forecasting, based around an integral understanding of integration and cointegration and an evaluation of real business cycle models. There is an evaluation of different cointegration estimators and a new test for cointegration. There is a discussion of the effects of seasonality, looking at seasonal unit roots and at encompassing modelling with seasonally unadjusted versus adjusted data. A different style of nonstationarity is raised in a discussion of testing for inflationary bubbles and for time-varying transition probabilities in Hamilton's Markov switching model. This volume provides wide-ranging coverage of the literature, showing the importance of nonstationarity and cointegration.
Author: Bernhard Pfaff
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0387759670
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 193
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book is designed for self study. The reader can apply the theoretical concepts directly within R by following the examples.
Author: Evžen Kočenda
Publisher: Charles University in Prague, Karolinum Press
ISBN: 8024631997
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 220
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book presents the numerous tools for the econometric analysis of time series. The text is designed with emphasis on the practical application of theoretical tools. Accordingly, material is presented in a way that is easy to understand. In many cases intuitive explanation and understanding of the studied phenomena are offerd. Essential concepts are illustrated by clear-cut examples. The attention of readers is drawn to numerous applied works where the use of specific techniques is best illustrated. Such applications are chiefly connected with issues of recent economic transition and European integration. The outlined style of presentation makes the book also a rich source of references. The text is divided into five major sections. The first section, “The Nature of Time Series”, gives an introduction to time series analysis. The second section, “Difference Equations”, describes briefly the theory of difference equations with an emphasis on results that are important for time series econometrics. The third section, “Univariate Time Series”, presents the methods commonly used in univariate time series analysis, the analysis of time series of one single variable. The fourth section, “Multiple Time Series”, deals with time series models of multiple interrelated variables. The fifth section “Panel Data and Unit Root Tests”, deals with methods known as panel unit root tests that are relevant to issues of convergence. Appendices contain an introduction to simulation techniques and statistical tables. Kniha přináší soubor základních i pokročilých technik a postupů používaných v ekonometrické analýze časových řad. Kniha klade důraz na umožnění efektivního použití popsaných technik v aplikovaném ekonomickém výzkumu. Toho je dosaženo tím, že teoretické základy popsané ekonometrie jsou prezentovány spolu s intuitivním vysvětlením problematiky a jednotlivé techniky jsou ilustrovány na výsledcích současného výzkumu a to především v kontextu procesu nedávné ekonomické transformace a současné evropské integrace. Toto pojetí z knihy činí nejen učebnici v klasickém smyslu, ale také užitečný referenční zdroj neboť odkazy v knize spojují klasickou i moderní ekonometrickou literaturu se soudobými aplikacemi, na nichž je použití jednotlivých technik jasně pochopitelné. Mnohá použití vycházejí z bohaté předchozí práce autorů v oboru. Text knihy je rozdělen do pěti hlavních částí. První část, “The Nature of Time Series”, přináší úvod do analýzy časových řad a popis jejich nejdůležitějších charakteristik, vlastností a procesů. Druhá část, “Difference Equations”, stručně popisuje teorii diferenciálních rovnic s důrazem na aspekty, které jsou klíčové v ekonometrii časových řad. Třetí část, “Univariate Time Series”, poměrně rozsáhle popisuje techniky, které se používají při analýze jednotlivých časových řad bez jejich vzájemené interakce a zahrnuje jak lineární tak nelineární modelované struktury. Čtvrtá část, “Multiple Time Series”, popisuje modely které umožňují analýzu několika časových řad a jejich vzájemných interakcí. Pátá část “Panel Data and Unit Root Tests”, zahrnuje některé techniky postavené na panelových datech, jež k průřezovým datům přidávají časovou dimenzi a vztahují se k analýze konvergence. Závěr knihy je doplněn o úvod do simulační techniky a statistické tabulky
Author: Michio Hatanaka
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191525022
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 310
Get Book Here
Book Description
In the last decade, time-series econometrics has made extraordinary developments on unit roots and cointegration. However, this progress has taken divergent directions, and has been subjected to criticism from outside the field. In this book, Professor Hatanaka surveys the field, examines those portions that are useful for macroeconomics, and responds to the criticism. His survey of the literature covers not only econometric methods, but also the application of these methods to macroeconomic studies. The most vigorous criticism has been that unit roots to do not exist in macroeconomic variables, and thus that cointegration analysis is irrelevant to macroeconomics. The judgement of this book is that unit roots are present in macroeconomic variables when we consider periods of 20 to 40 years, but that the critics may be right when periods of 100 years are considered. Fortunately, most of the time series data used for macroeconomic studies cover fall within the shorter time span. Among the numerous methods for unit roots and cointegration, those useful from macroeconomic studies are examined and explained in detail, without overburdening the reader with unnecessary mathematics. Other, less applicable methods are dicussed briefly, and their weaknesses are exposed. Hatanaka has rigourously based his judgements about usefulness on whether the inference is appropriate for the length of the data sets available, and also on whether a proper inference can be made on the sort of propositions that macroeconomists wish to test. This book highlights the relations between cointegration and economic theories, and presents cointegrated regression as a revolution in econometric methods. Its analysis is of relevance to academic and professional or applied econometricians. Step-by-step explanations of concepts and techniques make the book a self-contained text for graduate students.
Author: Helmut Lütkepohl
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139454730
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 351
Get Book Here
Book Description
Time series econometrics is a rapidly evolving field. Particularly, the cointegration revolution has had a substantial impact on applied analysis. Hence, no textbook has managed to cover the full range of methods in current use and explain how to proceed in applied domains. This gap in the literature motivates the present volume. The methods are sketched out, reminding the reader of the ideas underlying them and giving sufficient background for empirical work. The treatment can also be used as a textbook for a course on applied time series econometrics. Topics include: unit root and cointegration analysis, structural vector autoregressions, conditional heteroskedasticity and nonlinear and nonparametric time series models. Crucial to empirical work is the software that is available for analysis. New methodology is typically only gradually incorporated into existing software packages. Therefore a flexible Java interface has been created, allowing readers to replicate the applications and conduct their own analyses.
Author: Helmut Lütkepohl
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9783540569404
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 576
Get Book Here
Book Description
This graduate level textbook deals with analyzing and forecasting multiple time series. It considers a wide range of multiple time series models and methods. The models include vector autoregressive, vector autoregressive moving average, cointegrated, and periodic processes as well as state space and dynamic simultaneous equations models. Least squares, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian methods are considered for estimating these models. Different procedures for model selection or specification are treated and a range of tests and criteria for evaluating the adequacy of a chosen model are introduced. The choice of point and interval forecasts is considered and impulse response analysis, dynamic multipliers as well as innovation accounting are presented as tools for structural analysis within the multiple time series context. This book is accessible to graduate students in business and economics. In addition, multiple time series courses in other fields such as statistics and engineering may be based on this book. Applied researchers involved in analyzing multiple time series may benefit from the book as it provides the background and tools for their task. It enables the reader to perform his or her analyses in a gap to the difficult technical literature on the topic.
