Three Essays on the Transmission of Macroeconomic Policies PDF Download
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Author: Simone Meier
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 271
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Author: Simone Meier
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 271
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Author: Joaquim Eloi Cirne de Toledo
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 476
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Author: Boris Segura-Valverde
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Category : Central America
Languages : en
Pages : 270
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Author: Birendra Budha
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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investigate the global spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty in these three essays. In the first chapter, I focus on the impact of uncertainty on the macroeconomic activity of other advanced and emerging economies. I find that an increase in US monetary policy uncertainty reduces output, investment, consumption, exports, and imports in these economies. Such adverse effects are larger in relatively open than closed economies in trade and capital flows. Central banks around the world respond to heightened uncertainty by cutting policy rates, which is further validated by the evidence from central bank minutes. In the second chapter, I examine asset price spillovers from US monetary policy uncertainty to global asset prices. An increase in US monetary policy uncertainty raises sovereign yields and depreciates exchange rates in advanced and emerging economies. A higher level of uncertainty weakens the global transmission of US monetary policy to asset prices. Spillovers from uncertainty to asset prices are larger for the countries with high trade integration, but such effects on sovereign yields are larger only in advanced economies with higher financial integration and the exchange rate peg than the flexible regime. The third chapter investigates how uncertainty about US monetary policy affects cross-border bank flows. I find that an increase in US monetary policy uncertainty reduces cross-border bank lending. In response to higher uncertainty, banks reallocate their portfolio from foreign to domestic borrowers. Such cross-border effects are found to be higher in countries with low capital controls.
Author: Ka-fu Wong
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 286
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Author: Sailesh Kumar Jha
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Category : Macroeconomics
Languages : en
Pages : 318
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Author: Wei Wang
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author: Edward F. Buffie
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 248
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Author: Andrea Fracasso
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 227
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The three essay are concerned with the uncertainty and risks that pervade the economy, influence investors and affect policymakers. The first essay shows that monetary policymakers consider events and contingencies to make decisions, and concludes that short-lived regime switches corrupt the descriptive power of linear Taylor-type rules, although these describe well the contours of the Fed's behaviour. The second essay focuses on the role of global and domestic factors for macroeconomic fluctuations in Brazil. The estimates of a VAR model reveal that global risk aversion is an important determinant of the volatility of Brazilian series and affects the monetary policy transmission channel. The third essay builds on the idea that, contrary to the predictions of IRBC models, the degree of international consumption smoothing is low. After a review of the literature addressing the puzzle, it investigates the relationship between external debt and consumption smoothing in a sample of developing countries.
Author: Raghav Paul
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 105
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The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate issues of importance in the formation of macroeconomic policy. In the first chapter, I explore the role of multinationals and intra-firm trade in exchange-rate pass-through into US imports. Conventional international macroeconomics models exploring exchange-rate pass-through, and informing monetary policy, often ignore transfer pricing. This results in predictions about firm-level pass-through that are at odds with the micro-level, empirical evidence. Motivated by the transaction level evidence that exchange-rate pass-through tends to be higher intra-firm than at arms-length, I construct a simple two-country, two-sector model of intra-firm and arms-length trade. Intra-firm trade is carried out by vertically integrated multinationals that compete in Bertrand fashion with regular exporters in the upstream sector. Under reasonable assumptions on pricing decisions and the cost function, my model is able to match the micro evidence. I add to the conventional literature by showing that along with exporters' shares, intra-firm trade and transfer pricing by multinationals are important factors for exchange rate pass-through. Furthermore, this model provides a framework to evaluate changes in monetary policy, as well as the interaction between the profit-shifting incentives of transfer pricing and changes in fiscal policy. In chapter two, we propose and quantify one potential explanation for the empirical evidence on the large productivity gaps between urban and agricultural sectors in developing countries. If residing in a village provides access to a network that effectively insures against income fluctuations, then households are less willing to live in the cities where labor income risk is uninsured. As a result, labor remains cheap in agriculture, and the incentives for switching to capital-intensive methods of farming remain weak. In order to understand the quantitative importance of this mechanism, we calibrate the model to Indian data and study an abstract policy-intervention: a provision of complete insurance against earnings risk in the city. The policy intervention decreases the urban-rural labor productivity gap by 64 percent. This effect comes about because of the 10 percent drop in agricultural share of employment, which encourages an inflow of capital and raises average farm size by 18 percent. In chapter three, we study the interaction between skilled immigration policy changes in the U.S. and the offshoring decision of domestic firms in the skilled services sector. Given the substitutability between immigrant and offshore workers (Ottaviano et al. (2013), Olney and Pozzoli (2018), Ottaviano et al. (2018)) and frictions imposed by the current skilled immigration policy, firms have an incentive to incur additional costs and hire labor offshore. To study this channel and the associated welfare impacts on skilled and unskilled domestic households, we build a two-country model with skilled immigration, offshore labor hiring, and trade in intermediate inputs. Monopolistically competitive firms in the domestic skill-intensive intermediate goods sector produce output using domestic and immigrant skilled labor, and skilled labor hired offshore. Firms optimally hire immigrant skilled workers subject to a policy imposed cap, a sunk hiring cost, and an exogenous probability of return to the foreign economy. In the calibrated model, firms adjust their production towards higher offshore labor hired following a stricter domestic immigration policy. We show that it is important to account for the role of offshoring when evaluating the welfare impacts of skilled immigration policy changes on domestic households: by ignoring firm adjustments in offshore labor hired, we would overestimate the wage (and welfare) gain to domestic skilled households after an immigration cap reduction. We also show that the welfare impacts depend on the profit distribution and the presence of labor market frictions. This analysis has two main contributions. First, as Ottaviano et al. (2018) note, much of the literature has focused on offshoring in the manufacturing sector and ignored an analysis of immigration and offshoring in the services sector. Given the growing importance of skill-intensive services trade, our paper takes a step in this direction. Second, unlike much of the literature, we study the interaction between immigration and offshoring in a dynamic general equilibrium model with a realistic skilled immigration policy setup.
