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Author: Songhua Lin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 246
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Author: Songhua Lin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 246
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Author: Ting Gao
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 332
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Author: Yingying Xu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 226
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Author: Yi David Wang
Publisher: Stanford University
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 133
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Book Description
This dissertation is a compilation of three essays I wrote during my investigation of China's foreign exchange markets. I list the abstract of each in the following paragraphs. Essay 1: Anomaly in China's Dollar--RMB Forward Market Newly-established data on onshore deliverable US dollar--RMB forwards and the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate from October 2006 to April 2009 reveal significant violations of covered interest rate parity. This paper hypothesizes that these violations are caused by an increase in US dollar-to-RMB conversion restrictions. Given that Chinese monetary authorities want to prevent market participants from taking advantage of the predictable appreciation of the RMB, China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange has to tighten up the control on US dollar-to-RMB conversions. Under the tightened conversion restrictions, similar deviations will resurface in the forward market whenever hot money inflow increases. One way to avoid covered interest rate parity violations in the forward market is to decrease hot money inflow into China by maintaining a stable and credible exchange rate policy. Essay 2: Convertibility Restriction in China's Foreign Exchange Market and its Impact on Forward Pricing Different from the well established markets such as the dollar-Euro market, recent CIP deviations observed in the onshore dollar-RMB forward market were primarily caused by conversion restrictions in the spot market rather than changes in credit risk and/or liquidity constraint. This paper proposes a theoretical framework under which the Chinese authorities impose conversion restrictions in the spot market in an attempt to achieve capital flow balance, but face the tradeoff between achieving such balance and disturbing current account transactions. Consequently, the level of conversion restriction should increase with the amount of capital account transactions and decrease with the amount of current account transactions. Such conversion restriction in turn places a binding constraint on forward traders' ability to cover their forward positions, resulting in the observed CIP deviation. More particularly, the model predicts that onshore forward rate is equal to a weighted average of CIP-implied forward rate and the market's expectation of future spot rate, with the weight determined by the level of conversion restriction. As a secondary result, the model also implies that offshore non-deliverable forwards reflect the market's expectation of future spot rate. Empirical results are consistent with these predictions. Essay 3: The Global Credit Crisis and China's Exchange Rate The case for stabilizing China's exchange rate against the dollar is strong. Before 2005 when the yuan/dollar rate was credibly fixed, it helped anchor China's domestic price level. But gradual RMB appreciation from July 2005 to July 2008 created a "one-way-bet" that disordered China's financial markets in two respects: (1) no private capital outflows to finance China's huge trade surplus leading to an undue build up of official exchange reserves and erosion of monetary control, and (2) a breakdown of the forward exchange market in 2007-08 so that exporters could no longer get trade credit—probably worsening the severe slump in Chinese exports. But after July 2008, the credit crunch induced an unexpected unwinding of the dollar carry trade leading to a sharp appreciation in the dollar's effective exchange rate. The People's Bank of China (PBC) then stopped RMB appreciation against the dollar. China's forward exchange market was restored and monetary control regained. Now the PBC can better support the fiscal stimulus by promoting a parallel expansion of bank credit. But, since March 2009, the fall in the dollar (with the RMB tied to it) again threatens to undermine the yuan/dollar rate and China's monetary stability.
Author: Robert C. Feenstra
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226239721
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 603
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Book Description
In less than three decades, China has grown from playing a negligible role in international trade to being one of the world's largest exporters, a substantial importer of raw materials, intermediate outputs, and other goods, and both a recipient and source of foreign investment. Not surprisingly, China's economic dynamism has generated considerable attention and concern in the United States and beyond. While some analysts have warned of the potential pitfalls of China's rise—the loss of jobs, for example—others have highlighted the benefits of new market and investment opportunities for US firms. Bringing together an expert group of contributors, China's Growing Role in World Trade undertakes an empirical investigation of the effects of China's new status. The essays collected here provide detailed analyses of the microstructure of trade, the macroeconomic implications, sector-level issues, and foreign direct investment. This volume's careful examination of micro data in light of established economic theories clarifies a number of misconceptions, disproves some conventional wisdom, and documents data patterns that enhance our understanding of China's trade and what it may mean to the rest of the world.
Author: Shunli Yao
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 300
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Author: Julien Chaisse
Publisher:
ISBN: 0198827458
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 561
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Book Description
This book explores the three tracks of China's investment policy and strategy: bilateral agreements, regional agreements, and global initiatives. Its overarching topic is whether these three tracks compete with or complement one another - a question of profound importance for China's political and economic future and world investment governance.
Author: Vitor M. Trindade
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Barriers to entry (Industrial organization)
Languages : en
Pages : 284
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Author: Eswar Prasad
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 80
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Book Description
China’s transformation into a dynamic private-sector-led economy and its integration into the world economy have been among the most dramatic global economic developments of recent decades. This paper provides an overview of some of the key aspects of recent developments in China’s macroeconomy and economic structure. It also surveys the main policy challenges that will need to be addressed for China to maintain sustained high growth and continued global integration.
Author: Gary Schmitt
Publisher: Encounter Books
ISBN: 1594034133
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 160
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Book Description
"Although the United States is rightly preoccupied with the threat of Islamist terrorism and the two conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, there is a wide consensus among American strategic thinkers that America’s greatest challenge over the next decades will be the rise of China. With its expanding economy and formidable military growth, China is positioning itself to challenge the United States as the greatest international power on the world stage. The Rise of China is a collection of essays about the nature of that threat and what the U.S. and its allies might do in the areas of foreign and defense affairs to meet it. Contributing authors Michael R. Auslin, Dan Blumenthal, Ellen Bork, Nicholas Eberstadt, Robert Kagan, Gary J. Schmitt, and Ashley J. Tellis contemplate how these two rising, ambitious powers are contesting for leadership in East Asia and ask if the sanguine forecasts for a peaceful century will hold true. Although the Chinese have been very careful to look like a cautious power, and in key respects have been, they see the international scene as fundamentally one of antagonism. And this is unlikely to change until and unless the regime changes. It is this China, the authors of The Rise of China assert, that we will be dealing with for some time to come. "
