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Author: Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451922124
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
This paper studies the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries using a structural VAR approach. Identification of the sources is achieved using long-run restrictions derived from a theoretical model of a small open economy encompassing a large number of macroeconomic paradigms; the short-run dynamics are unrestricted. This framework is applied to Brazil and Korea. The results confirm that supply shocks are the main source of GDP fluctuations, even in the short run. Aggregate demand shocks are shown to be important in the short run in Brazil, but not in Korea. External shocks explain a small fraction of the variance of output, whereas the real exchange rate is driven mainly by fiscal shocks. Nominal shocks appear to have little impact on output and the real exchange rate.
Author: Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451922124
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper studies the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries using a structural VAR approach. Identification of the sources is achieved using long-run restrictions derived from a theoretical model of a small open economy encompassing a large number of macroeconomic paradigms; the short-run dynamics are unrestricted. This framework is applied to Brazil and Korea. The results confirm that supply shocks are the main source of GDP fluctuations, even in the short run. Aggregate demand shocks are shown to be important in the short run in Brazil, but not in Korea. External shocks explain a small fraction of the variance of output, whereas the real exchange rate is driven mainly by fiscal shocks. Nominal shocks appear to have little impact on output and the real exchange rate.
Author: Alexander W. Hoffmaister
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
This paper studies the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries using a structural VAR approach. Identification of the sources is achieved using long-run restrictions derived from a theoretical model of a small open economy encompassing a large number of macroeconomic paradigms; the short-run dynamics are unrestricted. This framework is applied to Brazil and Korea. The results confirm that supply shocks are the main source of GDP fluctuations, even in the short run. Aggregate demand shocks are shown to be important in the short run in Brazil, but not in Korea. External shocks explain a small fraction of the variance of output, whereas the real exchange rate is driven mainly by fiscal shocks. Nominal shocks appear to have little impact on output and the real exchange rate.
Author: Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451954743
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub–Saharan African are examined by comparing the CFA franc countries with the non–CFA franc countries. External shocks, especially terms of trade shocks, appear to have a greater influence on fluctuations of output and the real exchange rate in CFA franc countries. This result does not appear to be associated with differences in the economic structure but may reflect the fixed exchange rate regime, which does not (partially) buffer these countries from external shocks. Macroeconomic fluctuations in non–CFA franc countries are similar to those in other developing countries, particularly in Latin America.
Author: Romain Houssa
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498310141
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
We examine the role of global and domestic shocks in driving macroeconomic fluctuations for Ghana. We are able to study the impact of exogenous shocks including productivity, credit supply, and commodity price shocks. We identify the shocks with a combination of sign and recursive restrictions within Bayesian VAR models. As a benchmark we provide results for South Africa to document the difference between two economies with similar structures but different levels of development. We find that global shocks play a more dominant role in South Africa than in Ghana. These shocks operate through three channels: trade, credit and commodity prices.
Author: Ahmed R. El-Safty
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Egypt
Languages : en
Pages : 246
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Book Description
Author: Shaghil Ahmed
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange rates
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
Author: Mamta Banu Chowdhury
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1351150154
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 209
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Book Description
Chowdhury addresses fundamental issues of policy management in resource-based developing countries, by providing an extension of the existing 'Dutch Disease' theory and its applications to the developing country context. The impact of resources booms is of paramount importance for the developing economies. To date the analytical and empirical investigations of these issues have not been available. Essentially, this study will fill this gap. The book investigates the macroeconomic impact of a resources boom and the long-term growth implications of related policy choices with reference to Papua New Guinea. Like many other primary commodity exporting developing economies, Papua New Guinea experienced several short-lived export booms over the past two and a half decades, providing a fascinating case study of potential gains from resources booms and the accompanying complex problems of policy management. This study also incorporates a comparative study of resources boom and policy management issues between Papua New Guinea, Indonesia and Nigeria.
Author: Mr.Giovanni Melina
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 148434488X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
We compare business cycle fluctuations in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Our main results are as follows: (i) African economies stand out by their macroeconomic volatility, which is is reflected in the volatility of output and other macro variables; (ii) inflation and output tend to be negatively correlated; (iii) unlike advanced economies and emerging markets (EMs), trade balances and current accounts are acyclical in SSA; (iv) the volatility of consumption and investment relative to GDP is larger than in other countries; (v) the cyclicality of consumption and investment is smaller than in advanced economies and EMs; (vi) there is little comovement between consumption and investment; (vii) consumption and investment are strongly positively correlated with imports.
Author: Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451927312
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
This paper compares business cycles in Asia and in Latin America using structural vector autoregression analysis with panel data. The evidence for countries in these regions suggests that (i) the main source of output fluctuations is supply shocks, even in the short run; (ii) the real exchange rate is driven mostly by fiscal shocks; and (iii) terms of trade shocks are important for trade balance fluctuations but not for output or real exchange rate fluctuations. However, in Latin America, as opposed to Asia, output is affected more by external and domestic demand shocks.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 149834366X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 107
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Book Description
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