Author: Nate Silver
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 0143125087
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 577
Book Description
"One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
The Signal and the Noise
Author: Nate Silver
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 0143125087
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 577
Book Description
"One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 0143125087
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 577
Book Description
"One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Signal and Noise
Author: Brian Larkin
Publisher: Duke University Press
ISBN: 9780822341086
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 332
Book Description
DIVExamines the role of media technologies in shaping urban Africa through an ethnographic study of popular culture in northern Nigeria./div
Publisher: Duke University Press
ISBN: 9780822341086
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 332
Book Description
DIVExamines the role of media technologies in shaping urban Africa through an ethnographic study of popular culture in northern Nigeria./div
Signal to Noise
Author: Silvia Moreno-Garcia
Publisher: Rebellion Publishing Ltd
ISBN: 1786186454
Category : Fiction
Languages : en
Pages : 318
Book Description
Mexico City, 1988. Long before iTunes or MP3s, you said "I love you" with a mixtape. Meche, awkward and fifteen, discovers how to cast spells using music, and with her friends Sebastian and Daniela will piece together their broken families, and even find love... Two decades after abandoning the metropolis, Meche returns for her estranged father's funeral, reviving memories from her childhood she thought she buried a long time ago. What really happened back then? Is there any magic left?
Publisher: Rebellion Publishing Ltd
ISBN: 1786186454
Category : Fiction
Languages : en
Pages : 318
Book Description
Mexico City, 1988. Long before iTunes or MP3s, you said "I love you" with a mixtape. Meche, awkward and fifteen, discovers how to cast spells using music, and with her friends Sebastian and Daniela will piece together their broken families, and even find love... Two decades after abandoning the metropolis, Meche returns for her estranged father's funeral, reviving memories from her childhood she thought she buried a long time ago. What really happened back then? Is there any magic left?
Introduction to Random Signals and Noise
Author: Wim C. Van Etten
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470024127
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 270
Book Description
Random signals and noise are present in many engineering systems and networks. Signal processing techniques allow engineers to distinguish between useful signals in audio, video or communication equipment, and interference, which disturbs the desired signal. With a strong mathematical grounding, this text provides a clear introduction to the fundamentals of stochastic processes and their practical applications to random signals and noise. With worked examples, problems, and detailed appendices, Introduction to Random Signals and Noise gives the reader the knowledge to design optimum systems for effectively coping with unwanted signals. Key features: Considers a wide range of signals and noise, including analogue, discrete-time and bandpass signals in both time and frequency domains. Analyses the basics of digital signal detection using matched filtering, signal space representation and correlation receiver. Examines optimal filtering methods and their consequences. Presents a detailed discussion of the topic of Poisson processes and shot noise. An excellent resource for professional engineers developing communication systems, semiconductor devices, and audio and video equipment, this book is also ideal for senior undergraduate and graduate students in Electronic and Electrical Engineering.
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470024127
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 270
Book Description
Random signals and noise are present in many engineering systems and networks. Signal processing techniques allow engineers to distinguish between useful signals in audio, video or communication equipment, and interference, which disturbs the desired signal. With a strong mathematical grounding, this text provides a clear introduction to the fundamentals of stochastic processes and their practical applications to random signals and noise. With worked examples, problems, and detailed appendices, Introduction to Random Signals and Noise gives the reader the knowledge to design optimum systems for effectively coping with unwanted signals. Key features: Considers a wide range of signals and noise, including analogue, discrete-time and bandpass signals in both time and frequency domains. Analyses the basics of digital signal detection using matched filtering, signal space representation and correlation receiver. Examines optimal filtering methods and their consequences. Presents a detailed discussion of the topic of Poisson processes and shot noise. An excellent resource for professional engineers developing communication systems, semiconductor devices, and audio and video equipment, this book is also ideal for senior undergraduate and graduate students in Electronic and Electrical Engineering.
Calculus For Dummies
Author: Mark Ryan
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119297435
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 446
Book Description
Slay the calculus monster with this user-friendly guide Calculus For Dummies, 2nd Edition makes calculus manageable—even if you're one of the many students who sweat at the thought of it. By breaking down differentiation and integration into digestible concepts, this guide helps you build a stronger foundation with a solid understanding of the big ideas at work. This user-friendly math book leads you step-by-step through each concept, operation, and solution, explaining the "how" and "why" in plain English instead of math-speak. Through relevant instruction and practical examples, you'll soon learn that real-life calculus isn't nearly the monster it's made out to be. Calculus is a required course for many college majors, and for students without a strong math foundation, it can be a real barrier to graduation. Breaking that barrier down means recognizing calculus for what it is—simply a tool for studying the ways in which variables interact. It's the logical extension of the algebra, geometry, and trigonometry you've already taken, and Calculus For Dummies, 2nd Edition proves that if you can master those classes, you can tackle calculus and win. Includes foundations in algebra, trigonometry, and pre-calculus concepts Explores sequences, series, and graphing common functions Instructs you how to approximate area with integration Features things to remember, things to forget, and things you can't get away with Stop fearing calculus, and learn to embrace the challenge. With this comprehensive study guide, you'll gain the skills and confidence that make all the difference. Calculus For Dummies, 2nd Edition provides a roadmap for success, and the backup you need to get there.
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119297435
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 446
Book Description
Slay the calculus monster with this user-friendly guide Calculus For Dummies, 2nd Edition makes calculus manageable—even if you're one of the many students who sweat at the thought of it. By breaking down differentiation and integration into digestible concepts, this guide helps you build a stronger foundation with a solid understanding of the big ideas at work. This user-friendly math book leads you step-by-step through each concept, operation, and solution, explaining the "how" and "why" in plain English instead of math-speak. Through relevant instruction and practical examples, you'll soon learn that real-life calculus isn't nearly the monster it's made out to be. Calculus is a required course for many college majors, and for students without a strong math foundation, it can be a real barrier to graduation. Breaking that barrier down means recognizing calculus for what it is—simply a tool for studying the ways in which variables interact. It's the logical extension of the algebra, geometry, and trigonometry you've already taken, and Calculus For Dummies, 2nd Edition proves that if you can master those classes, you can tackle calculus and win. Includes foundations in algebra, trigonometry, and pre-calculus concepts Explores sequences, series, and graphing common functions Instructs you how to approximate area with integration Features things to remember, things to forget, and things you can't get away with Stop fearing calculus, and learn to embrace the challenge. With this comprehensive study guide, you'll gain the skills and confidence that make all the difference. Calculus For Dummies, 2nd Edition provides a roadmap for success, and the backup you need to get there.
Noise
Author: Daniel Kahneman
Publisher: Little, Brown
ISBN: 031645138X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 429
Book Description
From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.
Publisher: Little, Brown
ISBN: 031645138X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 429
Book Description
From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.
Noise Theory and Application to Physics
Author: Philippe Réfrégier
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780387201542
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 306
Book Description
This is a unique approach to noise theory and its application to physical measurements that will find its place among the graduate course books. In a very systematic way, the foundations are laid and applied in a way that the book will also be useful to those not focusing on optics. Exercises and solutions help students to deepen their knowledge.
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780387201542
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 306
Book Description
This is a unique approach to noise theory and its application to physical measurements that will find its place among the graduate course books. In a very systematic way, the foundations are laid and applied in a way that the book will also be useful to those not focusing on optics. Exercises and solutions help students to deepen their knowledge.
Signal
Author: Stephen Few
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781938377051
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 225
Book Description
Teaches the analytical skills necessary to glean value from the warehouses of accumulating data In this age of so-called Big Data, organizations are scrambling to implement new software and hardware to increase the amount of data they collect and store. However, in doing so they are unwittingly making it harder to find the needles of useful information in the rapidly growing mounds of hay. If you don't know how to differentiate signals from noise, adding more noise only makes things worse. When we rely on data for making decisions, how do we tell what qualifies as a signal and what is merely noise? In and of itself, data is neither. Assuming that data is accurate, it is merely a collection of facts. When a fact is true and useful, only then is it a signal. When it's not, it's noise. It's that simple. In "Signal," Stephen Few provides the straightforward, practical instruction in everyday signal detection that has been lacking until now. Using data visualization methods, he teaches how to apply statistics to gain a comprehensive understanding of one's data and adapts the techniques of Statistical Process Control in new ways to detect not just changes in the metrics but also changes in the patterns that characterize data.
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781938377051
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 225
Book Description
Teaches the analytical skills necessary to glean value from the warehouses of accumulating data In this age of so-called Big Data, organizations are scrambling to implement new software and hardware to increase the amount of data they collect and store. However, in doing so they are unwittingly making it harder to find the needles of useful information in the rapidly growing mounds of hay. If you don't know how to differentiate signals from noise, adding more noise only makes things worse. When we rely on data for making decisions, how do we tell what qualifies as a signal and what is merely noise? In and of itself, data is neither. Assuming that data is accurate, it is merely a collection of facts. When a fact is true and useful, only then is it a signal. When it's not, it's noise. It's that simple. In "Signal," Stephen Few provides the straightforward, practical instruction in everyday signal detection that has been lacking until now. Using data visualization methods, he teaches how to apply statistics to gain a comprehensive understanding of one's data and adapts the techniques of Statistical Process Control in new ways to detect not just changes in the metrics but also changes in the patterns that characterize data.
The Signal and the Noise
Author: Nate Silver
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781524704636
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781524704636
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
Summary and Analysis of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't
Author: Worth Books
Publisher: Open Road Media
ISBN: 1504043693
Category : Study Aids
Languages : en
Pages : 43
Book Description
So much to read, so little time? This brief overview of The Signal and the Noise tells you what you need to know—before or after you read Nate Silver’s book. Crafted and edited with care, Worth Books set the standard for quality and give you the tools you need to be a well-informed reader. This short summary and analysis of The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver includes: Historical context Chapter-by-chapter summaries Important quotes Fascinating trivia Glossary of terms Supporting material to enhance your understanding of the original work About The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver: Drawing on groundbreaking research, The Signal and the Noise, written by the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight.com, examines how data has been used in prediction and forecasting, and how to find the true signals—the points that indicate that something will happen—amidst noisy and distracting data. Addressing different fields of forecasting and predictions—from politics to earthquakes to poker—Silver explores the reasons why some things are easier to forecast, like the weather, while others are so difficult, such as terrorism. From one of the country’s smartest thinkers. The Signal and the Noise provides vital insights into how to think about probability and predictions on the economy, climate change, sports, and other subjects that impact our lives. The summary and analysis in this ebook are intended to complement your reading experience and bring you closer to a great work of nonfiction.
Publisher: Open Road Media
ISBN: 1504043693
Category : Study Aids
Languages : en
Pages : 43
Book Description
So much to read, so little time? This brief overview of The Signal and the Noise tells you what you need to know—before or after you read Nate Silver’s book. Crafted and edited with care, Worth Books set the standard for quality and give you the tools you need to be a well-informed reader. This short summary and analysis of The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver includes: Historical context Chapter-by-chapter summaries Important quotes Fascinating trivia Glossary of terms Supporting material to enhance your understanding of the original work About The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver: Drawing on groundbreaking research, The Signal and the Noise, written by the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight.com, examines how data has been used in prediction and forecasting, and how to find the true signals—the points that indicate that something will happen—amidst noisy and distracting data. Addressing different fields of forecasting and predictions—from politics to earthquakes to poker—Silver explores the reasons why some things are easier to forecast, like the weather, while others are so difficult, such as terrorism. From one of the country’s smartest thinkers. The Signal and the Noise provides vital insights into how to think about probability and predictions on the economy, climate change, sports, and other subjects that impact our lives. The summary and analysis in this ebook are intended to complement your reading experience and bring you closer to a great work of nonfiction.