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Author: Aragie, Emerta
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 17
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Book Description
The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to considerably affect the Ethiopian economy directly and indirectly due to global shocks and to the different restrictive preventative measures the country is taking. We analyze these economic effects using multisector economywide income multiplier models built on the two latest Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) developed for Ethiopia. Three external sector channels are the focus of the analysis: commodity exports, strategic imports, and remittances. Results indicate that in the absence of any policy responses, the Ethiopian economy is expected to experience a loss of approximately 4.3 to 5.5 percent of its annual GDP due to exports, strategic imports, and remittances that are one-third lower relative to the no-COVID situation over a period of six-months. This translates into estimated reductions in labor income of between 4.2 and 5.2 percent. The SAM multiplier model estimates also imply that these negative shocks lead to household income losses that amount to between 3.9 and 6.4 percent. In particular, the urban poor will be the most affected as they lose real incomes in the range of 6.6 to 8.5 percent. These income losses are estimated to result in a 3.5 percentage point rise in the national poverty headcount.
Author: Aragie, Emerta
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 17
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Book Description
The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to considerably affect the Ethiopian economy directly and indirectly due to global shocks and to the different restrictive preventative measures the country is taking. We analyze these economic effects using multisector economywide income multiplier models built on the two latest Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) developed for Ethiopia. Three external sector channels are the focus of the analysis: commodity exports, strategic imports, and remittances. Results indicate that in the absence of any policy responses, the Ethiopian economy is expected to experience a loss of approximately 4.3 to 5.5 percent of its annual GDP due to exports, strategic imports, and remittances that are one-third lower relative to the no-COVID situation over a period of six-months. This translates into estimated reductions in labor income of between 4.2 and 5.2 percent. The SAM multiplier model estimates also imply that these negative shocks lead to household income losses that amount to between 3.9 and 6.4 percent. In particular, the urban poor will be the most affected as they lose real incomes in the range of 6.6 to 8.5 percent. These income losses are estimated to result in a 3.5 percentage point rise in the national poverty headcount.
Author: Aragie, Emerta
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
In this paper, we analyze the economic impacts of response measures adopted in Ethiopia to curtail the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We carry out simulations using an economywide multiplier model based on a 2017 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the country that properly depicts interactions between economic agents. The pandemic’s impact on the global economy combined with disruptions it causes in Ethiopia represents a large, unprecedented shock to the country’s economy. In such situations, a SAM-based multiplier model provides an ideal tool for measuring the short-term direct and indirect impacts of a shock on an economic system since there is limited room for proper adjustment of economic decisions. We model the seven-week partial lockdown policy implemented in Ethiopia from mid-March to early May 2020. We also consider two possible economic recovery scenarios that may emerge as the COVID-19 control policies are relaxed during the latter part of 2020 in order to generate insights on the potential continuing impact of the virus at the end of 2020. Although the country took early swift measures, our assessment of the partial lockdown measures suggests that they were not as strict as those observed in other Africa countries. Accordingly, our estimates of the economic costs of COVID-19 on Ethiopia are significantly lower than those reported for other countries on the continent. We estimate that during the lockdown period Ethiopia’s GDP suffered a 14 percent loss (43.5 billion Birr or 1.9 billion USD) compared to a no-COVID case over the same period. Nearly two-thirds of the losses were in the services sector. Although no direct restrictions were imposed on the agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Ethiopians, the sector faced a 4.7 percent loss in output due to its linkages with the rest of the economy. Poor export performance due to a slowdown in global trade and restrictions on the transport sector also partly explain the decline in agricultural output. The broader agri-food system also was affected considerably because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. In terms of the welfare of Ethiopians, we estimate that the economic impacts during the lockdown caused 10.1 million additional people to fall below the poverty line. These findings have implications for better understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 and for policy design during the recovery period to return Ethiopia’s economy to a normal growth trajectory and to protect the livelihoods of the most vulnerable in the process.
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513536990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author: Andreas Velthuizen
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1040014755
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 170
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Book Description
This book examines the impact of epidemics in Africa, exploring some of the adaptation and crisis management strategies adopted to tackle COVID-19, Ebola, and HIV-AIDS. The authors reflect on lessons learned from solving complex problems and difficult decisions made by leaders on pandemic management to shape the security environment and, thus, the well-being of people living in Africa for years to come. Drawing on cases from across the continent, the book demonstrates that, significantly, during the COVID-19 pandemic, African countries and communities frequently displayed regional solidarity, creativity in decision-making, decisiveness in dealing with corruption and opportunism, and resilience and discipline in implementation. Adopting a human security framework, the authors share their lived experiences and explore the impact of epidemics on public policy decision-making, foreign policy implementation, global relations, collaboration in the community dimension, and, ultimately, the future of socio-economic development in Africa. This book will be a welcome addition for practitioners and researchers across the fields of security studies, health management, and African studies, making an essential contribution to the security discourse in a post-COVID world.
Author: Eduardo A. Cavallo
Publisher: Inter-American Development Bank
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 121
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Book Description
The 2018 Macroeconomic Report, A Mandate to Grow, revisits the growth debate that has been raging in the region for the past half century. Viewing the debate from this long-term perspective allows for a focus on the structural factors that have prevented Latin America and the Caribbean from reaching the growth potential required to keep pace with faster growing regions and to fulfill the aspirations of its population.
Author: Baulch, Bob
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
This working paper builds on a report which was prepared for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference in November 2020. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by the International Food Policy Research Institute to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade and tourism, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium-term paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Using a Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model, we estimate GDP declines by around 16.5 percent during April/May 2020 due to social distancing measures. This leads to around 1.6 million people, mainly in rural areas, temporarily falling into poverty, although urban households suffer the largest income losses. We also model the impact of a faster and a slower lifting of restrictions and external shocks during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. With faster easing of restrictions, cumulative GDP gains turn positive by the third quarter of 2021 under the fast recovery scenario and exceed their pre-COVID-19 levels by US$178 million before the end of 2021. However, under the slow recovery scenario, Malawi’s GDP continues to decline until the end of 2020 before recovering during quarters 1 and 4 of 2021. However, this is not sufficient to wipe out the losses in quarters 2 to 4 of 2020, resulting in cumulative losses under the slow recovery scenario of US$332 million over the two years. Relative to the without COVID-19 scenario, US$937 million of GDP is lost under the fast recovery scenario and US$1,447 million under the slow recovery one. As both the development of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic situation in Malawi are highly uncertain at the present time, the results reported in this paper should be regarded as interim estimates, which are subject to revision as the underlying health and economic data change.
Author: Ms.Manuela Goretti
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513561901
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 115
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Book Description
This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies.
Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616356154
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Author: Richard Hemming
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 62
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Book Description
This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
Author: Andrea Ciani
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464815585
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 187
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Book Description
Economic and social progress requires a diverse ecosystem of firms that play complementary roles. Making It Big: Why Developing Countries Need More Large Firms constitutes one of the most up-to-date assessments of how large firms are created in low- and middle-income countries and their role in development. It argues that large firms advance a range of development objectives in ways that other firms do not: large firms are more likely to innovate, export, and offer training and are more likely to adopt international standards of quality, among other contributions. Their particularities are closely associated with productivity advantages and translate into improved outcomes not only for their owners but also for their workers and for smaller enterprises in their value chains. The challenge for economic development, however, is that production does not reach economic scale in low- and middle-income countries.Why are large firms scarcer in developing countries? Drawing on a rare set of data from public and private sources, as well as proprietary data from the International Finance Corporation and case studies, this book shows that large firms are often born large—or with the attributes of largeness. In other words, what is distinct about them is often in place from day one of their operations. To fill the “missing top” of the firm-size distribution with additional large firms, governments should support the creation of such firms by opening markets to greater competition. In low-income countries, this objective can be achieved through simple policy reorientation, such as breaking oligopolies, removing unnecessary restrictions to international trade and investment, and establishing strong rules to prevent the abuse of market power. Governments should also strive to ensure that private actors have the skills, technology, intelligence, infrastructure, and finance they need to create large ventures. Additionally, they should actively work to spread the benefits from production at scale across the largest possible number of market participants.This book seeks to bring frontier thinking and evidence on the role and origins of large firms to a wide range of readers, including academics, development practitioners and policy makers.
