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Author: Tsu-ting Tim Lin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The three most recent downturns, in contrast with other post-war recessions, are characterized by slow recoveries in employment despite positive economic growth. I find that recent recoveries coincide with high uncertainty about economy-wide corporate profits at a time when output begins to rebound, a pattern that was not observed in the earlier recessions. To examine the role of uncertainty in jobless recoveries, I develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with search and matching frictions in the labor market and an intensive labor margin. The model is driven by productivity and time-varying volatility shocks. The uncertainty agents face is captured by time-varying volatility. Labor market search frictions generate costly labor adjustment. When an uncertainty shock hits the economy, firms reduce the number of vacancies posted because they are reluctant to make costly adjustments along the extensive margin. Instead, firms require more effort from their employees. This, along with positive productivity shocks, can result in jobless recoveries. I calibrate the model and show that, with the addition of uncertainty shocks, this model produces labor market dynamics that allows it to address recent episodes of jobless recoveries.
Author: Tsu-ting Tim Lin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The three most recent downturns, in contrast with other post-war recessions, are characterized by slow recoveries in employment despite positive economic growth. I find that recent recoveries coincide with high uncertainty about economy-wide corporate profits at a time when output begins to rebound, a pattern that was not observed in the earlier recessions. To examine the role of uncertainty in jobless recoveries, I develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with search and matching frictions in the labor market and an intensive labor margin. The model is driven by productivity and time-varying volatility shocks. The uncertainty agents face is captured by time-varying volatility. Labor market search frictions generate costly labor adjustment. When an uncertainty shock hits the economy, firms reduce the number of vacancies posted because they are reluctant to make costly adjustments along the extensive margin. Instead, firms require more effort from their employees. This, along with positive productivity shocks, can result in jobless recoveries. I calibrate the model and show that, with the addition of uncertainty shocks, this model produces labor market dynamics that allows it to address recent episodes of jobless recoveries.
Author: Jamie Shu Hui Poh
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Labor market
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
Examines the trends of employment during a jobless recovery and observe a substitution effect between contingent employment and full-time employment.
Author: Sangyup Choi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498356303
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
Author: Sangyup Choi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498328539
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
Author: Sarah Damaske
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691200149
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 336
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Book Description
"Although media outlets dubbed the Great Recession of 2007-2009 a 'man-cession' because men's job losses were double women's at first, women experienced greater job loss after the so-called 'conclusion' of the recession and recovered jobs at a slower rate than men. Women also appeared to face greater economic consequences of job loss: they were more likely than men to experience hunger and deprivation. These trends bring us to the first puzzle at the heart of this book: do women and men experience job loss and its effects differently? Using in-depth interviews from 100 people from rural and urban counties in Pennsylvania, Sarah Damaske investigates how men and women of different classes lose jobs, experience the economic and social ramifications of their unemployment in their own lives and their family life, and begin to search for work again"--
Author: Laurie Thomas Vass
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Our interest in writing this article is to create a bridge between the scholarly and academic research on technological innovation and a private sector, for-profit business model that implements the ideas on small business innovation and entrepreneurship, primarily in metro regional economies. Larry Summers made his initial economic splash as an academic back in the late 1970s with his analysis on the causes of unemployment in the moribund European economies. (Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem, 1986). Recently, he has been expressing uncertainty about the cause of the jobless economic recovery. Summers had written that unemployment in Europe could be explained as an outcome of improved productivity that occurred without causing job creation. The productivity improvements occurred during a time of great economic upheaval in Europe, which Summers called “hysteresis,” meaning a sharp break with historical conditions. Summers' discomfort about understanding the current jobless recovery can be eased considerably if he would simply apply his theory of hysteresis to the consolidation that has occurred in the global financial and capital markets. Jobless economic growth in the U.S. is the outcome when the Fed becomes banker-for-the-world.
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513536990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author: Robert Leahy
Publisher: Behler Publications, LLC
ISBN: 1933016620
Category : Self-Help
Languages : en
Pages : 290
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Book Description
A self-help book to help the unemployed and their families cope more effectively during a time when they feel helpless.
Author: Erik Brynjolfsson
Publisher: Brynjolfsson and McAfee
ISBN: 0984725113
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 86
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Book Description
Examines how information technologies are affecting jobs, skills, wages, and the economy.
Author: Mr.Cristiano Cantore
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475595891
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 53
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Book Description
We analyse the effects of a government spending expansion in a DSGE model with Mortensen-Pissarides labour market frictions, deep habits in private and public consumption, investment adjustment costs, a constant-elasticity-of-substitution (CES) production function, and adjustments in employment both at the intensive as well as the extensive margin. The combination of deep habits and CES technology is crucial. The presence of deep habits magnifies the responses of macroeconomic variables to a fiscal stimulus, while an elasticity of substitution between capital and labour in the range of available estimates allows the model to produce a scenario compatible with the observed jobless recovery.
