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Author: Edgar M. Johnson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Military intelligence
Languages : en
Pages : 52
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Book Description
Author: Edgar M. Johnson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Military intelligence
Languages : en
Pages : 52
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Edgar M. Johnson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Military intelligence
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
As part of an effort to provide improved techniques and methods for intelligence collection planning and intelligence analysis, an experiment was conducted to assess the effectiveness of traditional tactical intelligence indications for the analysis of conventional military operations. Forty-six captains in the Intelligence Officers Advanced Course each assumed the role of staff officer in a G-2 section of an Infantry Division conducting a mobile defense in north-central West Germany. Each officer estimated the probability that each of 49 separate indications listed in Field Manual 30-5, Combat Intelligence, would occur, given the aggressor's known course of action. Each indication was evaluated with four separate courses of action--Attack, Defend, Delay, and Withdraw. Eleven indications were evaluated twice with each course of action to provide an estimate of reliability. The estimates made by individual officers were highly reliable. However, the variability in the estimates made by different officers for the same indication was extremely high, with an average range of estimates greater than .7 on a 0 to 1.0 scale. The logic underlying clusters of related indications could not be clearly identified for any of the four courses of action. The findings reveal that current indications of conventional military operations are either poorly understood or intrinsically inadequate for use in contemporary intelligence operations, or both.
Author: Edgar M. Johnson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Military intelligence
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
As part of an effort to provide improved techniques and methods for planning the collection and analysis of intelligence information, an experiment was replicated which showed that tactical intelligence indications, as currently used, are of doubtful effectiveness. In the present experiment, 28 intelligence specialists (primarily from the 163d Military Intelligence Battalion) each assumed the role of an intelligence analyst in a G-2 section of an infantry division conducting a mobile defense in north central West Germany. Each individual estimated the probability that each of the 49 indications of conventional military operations listed in Field Manual 30-5, Combat Intelligence, would occur, given a known aggressor course of action. Each indication was evaluated with four separate enemy courses of action-Attack, Defend, Delay, and Withdraw. Eleven indications were evaluated twice with each course of action to provide an estimate of reliability. The previous experiment had used the same procedure with 44 students in the Intelligence Officers Advanced Course. In both experiments, individual estimates were highly reliable. However, variability in the estimates made by different individuals for the same indication was extremely high (greater than .7 on a 0-1.0 scale in both experiments). Only 12 indications were perceived by this group and 19 by the previous group as effective discriminators of the course of action with which they are doctrinally associated. Estimates made by officers and enlisted men in the present experiment did not differ significantly.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Military research
Languages : en
Pages : 654
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Military research
Languages : en
Pages : 550
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Government publications
Languages : en
Pages : 1152
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Author: Ralph E. Geiselman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Communications, Military
Languages : en
Pages : 140
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Author: Department of Defense
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781520763811
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 128
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Book Description
This unique and informative paper was produced by the National Intelligence University / National Defense Intelligence College. This updated and revised edition of an earlier, classified publication is an excellent primer for both intelligence analysts and policymakers. Events have shown that accurate and timely warning has most often been produced by a minority viewpoint brought to the attention of decisionmakers in some way; it is not the product of a majority consensus. In an era of asymmetric warfare in which our national security and wellbeing can be seriously threatened by hostile groups as well as nations, it is imperative that lessons from the past not be forgotten but be brought up to date and the discipline of warning reinvigorated. Warning intelligence differs significantly from current intelligence and the preparation of long-range estimates. It accepts the presumption of surprise and incomplete intelligence and requires exhaustive research upon which to build the case for specific warning. Relationships among events or involving the players may not be readily evident at first and initial signs often consist of fragmentary evidence, conflicting reports, or an absence of something. It is not merely a compilation of facts. It is an abstraction, an intangible, a perception or a belief. While a specific methodology for developing warning may have been tailored to the needs of the Cold War, the same principles apply even to asymmetric conflict. In the rush to build new intelligence mechanisms to combat terrorist attacks and to provide warning for the homeland as well as for forces deployed, the nation and the Intelligence Community would be well served by reviewing this book to gain an understanding of what constitutes warning and how it is arrived at. As the author points out, "warning does not exist until it has been conveyed to the policymaker, and ...he must know that he has been warned." All intelligence professionals and key policymakers must understand the principles outlined in this very relevant publication. Topics and subjects: Factors influencing Warning; warning intelligence; analytical method; political and military factors for warning; surprise and timing; deception; inference; induction; deduction; strategic versus tactical; indicator lists; long-term warning files; logistical preparations; DEFCON status; Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia 1968; Cuban Missile Crisis 1962; Korean War; World War II; Six-day war; Vietnam War; cover plans or cover stories. Chapter 1 * The Role of Warning Intelligence * General Nature of the Problem * What Is Warning? * Intentions versus Capabilities * Chapter 2 * Introduction to the Analytical Method * Indicator Lists: Compiling Indications * Fundamentals of Indications Analysis * Specifics of the Analytical Method * Chapter 3 * Military Indications and Warning * The Nature of Military Indicators * Order-of-Battle Analysis in Crisis Situations * Logistics is the Queen of Battles * Other Factors In Combat Preparations * Chapter 4 * Political Factors for Warning * Ambiguity of Political Indicators * A Problem of Perception * Considerations in Political Warning * Chapter 5 * Warning from the Totality of Evidence * The Relative Weight of Political and Military Factors * Isolating the Critical Facts and Indications * Some Guidelines for Assessing the Meaning of Evidence * Reconstructing the Adversary's Decisionmaking Process * Chapter 6 * Surprise and Timing * Principal Factors in Timing and Surprise * Examples of Assessing Timing * Warning is Not a Forecast of Imminence * Chapter 7 * The Problem of Deception * Infrequency and Neglect of Deception * Principles, Techniques and Effectiveness of Deception * Types of Deception * What Can We Do About It? * Chapter 8 * Judgments and Policy * Facts Don't "Speak For Themselves'' * What Do Top Consumers Need, and Want, to Know? * Intelligence in Support of Policy? Assessing Probabilities
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Social sciences
Languages : en
Pages : 978
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Author: Edgar M. Johnson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Command and control systems
Languages : en
Pages : 174
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