The Information Content of Option Ratios PDF Download
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Author: Benjamin M. Blau
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
A broad stream of research shows that information flows into underlying stock prices through the options market. For instance, prior research shows that both the Put-Call Ratio (P/C) and the Option-to-Stock Volume Ratio (O/S) predict negative future stock returns. In this paper, we compare the level of information contained in these two commonly used option volume ratios. Our comparison of the return predictability contained in these ratios yields some new results. First, we find that P/C ratios contain more predictability about future stock returns at the daily level than O/S ratios. Second, in contrast to our first set of results, O/S ratios contain more predictability about future returns at the weekly and monthly levels than P/C ratios. In fact, our tests show that while P/C ratios contain predictability about future daily returns and, to some extent, future weekly returns, the return predictability in P/C ratios is fleeting. O/S ratios, on the other hand, significantly predict negative returns at both the weekly and monthly levels, respectively.
Author: Benjamin M. Blau
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
A broad stream of research shows that information flows into underlying stock prices through the options market. For instance, prior research shows that both the Put-Call Ratio (P/C) and the Option-to-Stock Volume Ratio (O/S) predict negative future stock returns. In this paper, we compare the level of information contained in these two commonly used option volume ratios. Our comparison of the return predictability contained in these ratios yields some new results. First, we find that P/C ratios contain more predictability about future stock returns at the daily level than O/S ratios. Second, in contrast to our first set of results, O/S ratios contain more predictability about future returns at the weekly and monthly levels than P/C ratios. In fact, our tests show that while P/C ratios contain predictability about future daily returns and, to some extent, future weekly returns, the return predictability in P/C ratios is fleeting. O/S ratios, on the other hand, significantly predict negative returns at both the weekly and monthly levels, respectively.
Author: Scott Murray
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 61
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Book Description
I investigate the relation between option prices and daily stock return serial correlation. I demonstrate that the variance ratio, calculated as the ratio of realized to implied stock return variance, has both a contemporaneous and predictive relation with stock return serial correlation. The ability of the variance ratio to predict future stock return serial correlation gives rise to a daily trading strategy that implements reversal trading on stocks predicted to exhibit large negative serial correlation and momentum trading on stocks with high predicted serial correlation. The trading strategy generates risk-adjusted returns in excess of 6.5% per year.
Author: Allen M. Poteshman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
We present strong evidence that option trading volume contains information about future stock prices. Taking advantage of a unique data set, we construct put-call ratios from option volume initiated by buyers to open new positions. Stocks with low put-call ratios outperform stocks with high put-call ratios by more than 40 basis points on the next day and more than 1% over the next week. Partitioning our option signals into components that are publicly and nonpublicly observable, we find that the economic source of this predictability is nonpublic information possessed by option traders rather than market inefficiency. We also find greater predictability for stocks with higher concentrations of informed traders and from option contracts with greater leverage.
Author: Allen M. Poteshman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
We find strong evidence of information transmission from the options market to underlying stock prices. Taking advantage of a unique dataset from the Chicago Board Options Exchange, we construct put to call volume ratios for underlying stocks, using only volume initiated by buyers to open new positions. Performing daily cross-sectional analyses from 1990 to 2001, we find that buying stocks with low put/call ratios and selling stocks with high put/call ratios generates an expected return of 40 basis points per day and 1 percent per week. This result is present during each year of our sample period, and is not affected by the exclusion of earnings announcement windows. Moreover, the result is stronger for smaller stocks, indicating that the options market may be a more important avenue for information transmission for stocks with less efficient information flow. Our analysis also sheds light on the type of investor behind the informed option trading. Specifically, we find that option trading from customers of full service brokers provides the strongest predictability, while that from firm proprietary traders is not informative. Furthermore, our analysis shows that while public customers on average trade in the options market as contrarians -- buying fresh new puts on stocks that have done well and calls on stocks that have done poorly, firm proprietary traders exhibit the opposite behavior. Finally, in contrast to the equity options market, we do not find any evidence of informed trading in the index options market.
Author: Yen-Hsien Lee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 21
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Book Description
In this study, we analyze the information content of the TXO market using decoupled O/S ratio. First, we find that, among four classes of traders, only foreign institutional investors have significant predictive power in the TXO market, thereby providing evidence that foreign investor flows do indeed have an impact on host-country stock returns. Second, the decoupled O/S (specifically, call O/S) ratio appears to outperform the overall O/S and put-call ratios as an information-content variable. Third, we find that foreign institutional investors exhibit greater predictive ability with regard to the OTM and short-horizon TXO options, which implies that leverage, rather than liquidity, is considered by the informed traders. To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first of its kind to investigate the information content of decoupled O/S ratios in the index-option market.
Author: John C. Cox
Publisher: Prentice Hall
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 518
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Book Description
Includes the first published detailed description of option exchange operations, the first published treatment using only elementary mathematics and the first step-by-step procedure for implementing the Black-Scholes formula in actual trading.
Author: Jun Pan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Stock price forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
We present strong evidence that option trading volume contains information about future stock price movements. Taking advantage of a unique dataset from the Chicago Board Options Exchange, we construct put-call ratios from option volume initiated by buyers to open new positions. On a risk-adjusted basis, stocks with low put-call ratios outperform stocks with high put-call ratios by more than 40 basis points on the next day and more than 1% over the next week. Partitioning our option signals into components that are publicly and non-publicly observable, we find that the economic source of this predictability is non-public information possessed by option traders rather than market inefficiency. We also find greater predictability from option signals for stocks with higher concentrations of informed traders and from option contracts with greater leverage.
Author: Andrew Smithers
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN: 9780071387835
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 374
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Book Description
Valuing Wall Street is a book on investments.
Author: Rob Quail
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780471085546
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 420
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Book Description
It's not hard to understand why options trading continues to growin popularity, especially among sophisticated investors with largestock portfolios. Options are a cheaper and therefore, inherentlyless risky way of speculating on the price movements of stocks orother under-lying goods, yet, due to their volatility, they providemore price action per dollar than do stocks. And, when traded inconjunction with stock portfolios, options can significantlyenhance an investor's ability to manipulate the risk and returncharacteristics of their entire investment. Yet, despite these andother advantages of options, many investors shy away from thishighly lucrative type of speculation because of the seemingimpenetrability of many of its underlying concepts and technicalprinciples. Now in a book that demystifies options for financial professionals,Professor Robert W. Kolb, one of the nation's leading authoritieson the subject, provides readers with a solid grounding in theprinciples and practices of options trading. An excellent resourcefor investors who need to quickly get up to speed in options,Understanding Options offers a balanced presentation that buildsswiftly from the most basic concepts and terms to advanced tradingstrategies and techniques. Written in plain English and filled withreal-life examples and case studies, it schools readers in: * All essential terms, concepts, principles, and practices * Popular trading techniques and their payoffs * Option strategies * Option hedging * Formal trading models, including the Binomial and Merton models * Options on stock indexes, foreign currency, and futures * Option pricing in both the American and European markets * The options approach to corporate securities * And much more Concise yet comprehensive, authoritative yet highly accessible,Understanding Options gives you everything you need to feel rightat home in the lucrative world of options. Comprehensive, practical, authoritative--the fastest, mostaccessible route to the lucrative world of options From the basics of what an option is to advanced techniques forprofiting from options in a variety of markets, UnderstandingOptions covers all the bases. Written by a leading internationalauthority on options trading, this practical, hands-on guide offersdetailed, step-by-step coverage of option trading techniques andtheir payoffs, option strategies, European and American optionpricing, option hedging, and much more. It also explores options onstock indexes, foreign currency, and futures, and takes a closelook at the options approach to corporate securities. A concise, yet comprehensive, introduction to options for financialprofessionals * Gets you quickly up and running with all the essential knowledgeyou need to break into the options markets * Featuring a balanced presentation that moves swiftly from basicterms and concepts to advanced trading models * Packed with easy-to-follow examples and case studies that lucidlyillustrate all points covered
Author: Michael Ruhlman
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
ISBN: 1416566120
Category : Cooking
Languages : en
Pages : 307
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Book Description
Michael Ruhlman’s groundbreaking New York Times bestseller takes us to the very “truth” of cooking: it is not about recipes but rather about basic ratios and fundamental techniques that makes all food come together, simply. When you know a culinary ratio, it’s not like knowing a single recipe, it’s instantly knowing a thousand. Why spend time sorting through the millions of cookie recipes available in books, magazines, and on the Internet? Isn’t it easier just to remember 1-2-3? That’s the ratio of ingredients that always make a basic, delicious cookie dough: 1 part sugar, 2 parts fat, and 3 parts flour. From there, add anything you want—chocolate, lemon and orange zest, nuts, poppy seeds, cinnamon, cloves, nutmeg, almond extract, or peanut butter, to name a few favorite additions. Replace white sugar with brown for a darker, chewier cookie. Add baking powder and/or eggs for a lighter, airier texture. Ratios are the starting point from which a thousand variations begin. Ratios are the simple proportions of one ingredient to another. Biscuit dough is 3:1:2—or 3 parts flour, 1 part fat, and 2 parts liquid. This ratio is the beginning of many variations, and because the biscuit takes sweet and savory flavors with equal grace, you can top it with whipped cream and strawberries or sausage gravy. Vinaigrette is 3:1, or 3 parts oil to 1 part vinegar, and is one of the most useful sauces imaginable, giving everything from grilled meats and fish to steamed vegetables or lettuces intense flavor. Cooking with ratios will unchain you from recipes and set you free. With thirty-three ratios and suggestions for enticing variations, Ratio is the truth of cooking: basic preparations that teach us how the fundamental ingredients of the kitchen—water, flour, butter and oils, milk and cream, and eggs—work. Change the ratio and bread dough becomes pasta dough, cakes become muffins become popovers become crepes. As the culinary world fills up with overly complicated recipes and never-ending ingredient lists, Michael Ruhlman blasts through the surplus of information and delivers this innovative, straightforward book that cuts to the core of cooking. Ratio provides one of the greatest kitchen lessons there is—and it makes the cooking easier and more satisfying than ever.
