The Impact of the COVID-19 Shock on Euro Area Potential Output PDF Download
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789289953047
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The COVID-19 crisis has affected economic sectors very heterogeneously, with possible risks for permanent losses in some sectors. This paper presents a sectoral-level, bottom-up method to estimate euro area potential output in order to assess the impact of the crisis on it. The estimates are based on a supply-demand shock decomposition and are meant to quantitatively support the estimation of scarring effects stemming from the pandemic. The results show that sectors of "trade, transport and accommodation", "other services" and "industry" may suffer a loss in trend output of around 1.4-1.6% by 2025. Aggregate potential output in 2025 might be about 0.8% lower than it would have been without the crisis, and importantly, without support from the Next Generation EU (NGEU), signalling somewhat larger losses than embedded in the Autumn 2021 forecast of the European Commission (which takes the NGEU into account).
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789289953047
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book Here
Book Description
The COVID-19 crisis has affected economic sectors very heterogeneously, with possible risks for permanent losses in some sectors. This paper presents a sectoral-level, bottom-up method to estimate euro area potential output in order to assess the impact of the crisis on it. The estimates are based on a supply-demand shock decomposition and are meant to quantitatively support the estimation of scarring effects stemming from the pandemic. The results show that sectors of "trade, transport and accommodation", "other services" and "industry" may suffer a loss in trend output of around 1.4-1.6% by 2025. Aggregate potential output in 2025 might be about 0.8% lower than it would have been without the crisis, and importantly, without support from the Next Generation EU (NGEU), signalling somewhat larger losses than embedded in the Autumn 2021 forecast of the European Commission (which takes the NGEU into account).
Author: Jakob de Haan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Using the measures proposed by Mink et al. (2012), we reexamine the coherence of business cycles in the euro area using a long sample period. We also analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business cycle coherence and examine whether our measures for business cycle coherence indicate a core versus periphery within EMU. Our results suggest that business cycle coherence did not increase monotonically. The COVID-19 pandemic made that the signs of the output gaps of euro area countries became more similar, but we find large differences in the amplitude of the output gaps across countries.
Author: Mr. Sakai Ando
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 96
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Book Description
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic caused by far the largest shock to European economies since World War II. Yet, astonishingly, the EU unemployment rate had already declined to its pre-crisis level by 2021Q3, and in some countries the labor force participation rate is at a record high. This paper documents that the widespread use of job retention schemes has played an essential role in mitigating the pandemic’s impact on labor markets and thereby facilitating the restart of European economies after the initial lockdowns.
Author: Katarzyna Mroczek-Dąbrowska
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1000893928
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 170
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Book Description
This book addresses the economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on Central and East European countries and examines the effect the pandemic has had on organizations in the region. It focuses on the widely understood business environment, covering companies’ responses to the crisis, the role of institutions in stabilizing markets, and the reshaping of global business trends. The book is a complex and multidimensional work that draws its roots from distinct yet simultaneously interlinked research areas. All of the chapters, whether they refer to macro-, meso-, or micro-perspectives, always highlight how crises – global and regional – change the global trends we have observed in business in the last 20 years. The book includes the most topical issues that delineate public discourse on firms’ resilience. In this way, it ‘connects the dots’ and uncovers the missing links necessary for any reader wishing to understand the specificity of contemporary companies’ responses to unexpected events such as pandemics or geopolitical crises. Further, it tackles questions such as what role institutions play in building the adaptive capacity of companies, how companies build their resilience capacity for 21st-century crises, and what the significance is of the uncertainty, the information asymmetry, and the bounded rationality concept on the company’s decision-making process. The book will find a broad audience among academics and students across diverse fields of study, as well as practitioners and policymakers. It is a key reference for all those who want to better understand the complex nature of uncertainty, crisis management, and its implications, not only for CEE countries but, first and foremost, the business environment.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789276446279
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The COVID-19 crisis was a major economic shock to both the euro area and the United States. The US experienced a larger impact on human health but suffered a smaller economic contraction. Both regions experienced a faster pace of the recovery than during the global financial crisis. In spite of the larger decline in GDP, the labour market in the euro area remained resilient as job retention schemes and other measures have protected employment, while the US saw sharp changes in employment and unemployment and participation rates. There remains also significant uncertainty over the possible impact of COVID-19 on productivity growth. The latest developments should be seen in the context of longer-term trends. Divergence in per capita incomes between the euro area and the US grew after the global financial crisis, with a decline in euro area TFP growth being the most important factor. Despite the employment rate reaching historically high levels in the euro area before COVID-19, it remained lower than in the US, weighing on the relative growth performance. Capital deepening has stagnated in both regions since the global financial crisis, although private investment in the US has proven more dynamic overall. In stark contrast with the period after the global financial crisis, many euro area governments have now delivered substantial public investment, supported by the Recovery and Resilience Facility. Finally, this paper highlights some tentative lessons for the euro area and it puts forward some issues for further research.
Author: Neven Vidaković
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030754448
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 379
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Book Description
This book examines economic policies utilized within Southeast Europe in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Covering countries both within and outside the European Union, the human and economic cost of the pandemic is calculated using macroeconomic models from a short and longer term perspective. The economic policies used during the pandemic are analyzed, alongside crisis management approaches, to highlight the effectiveness of monetary policy, fiscal policies and potential future economic solutions for the post COVID-19 period. This book aims to provide policy recommendations based on findings from Southeast Europe. It is relevant to researchers and policymakers involved in economic policy and the political economy, as well as anyone interested in the responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Author: Mr.Christian H Ebeke
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513570919
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
The spread of COVID-19, containment measures, and general uncertainty led to a sharp reduction in activity in the first half of 2020. Europe was hit particularly hard—the economic contraction in 2020 is estimated to have been among the largest in the world—with potentially severe repercussions on its nonfinancial corporations. A wave of corporate bankruptcies would generate mass unemployment, and a loss of productive capacity and firm-specific human capital. With many SMEs in Europe relying primarily on the banking sector for external finance, stress in the corporate sector could easily translate into pressures in the banking system (Aiyar et al., forthcoming).
Author: Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475576447
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.
Author: Magdalena Tomala
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1000619966
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 82
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Book Description
This book analyses Europe’s COVID-19 response provided by governments and societies, to assess its influence on the economy from both a short- and long-term perspective. The authors argue that there are three key factors that determine how successful a given country is. The first is the determination and effectiveness of the government. The second is the capacity of states and their healthcare systems in times of crisis. The third is society’s willingness to adhere to emergency measures and to cooperate with authorities. The book examines the government policy of EU states during the pandemic; studies the behaviour of EU societies; reveals the influence of the pandemic crisis on the economy of EU states and formulates a successful strategy to counteract the challenges wrought by the pandemic. The book will appeal to scholars and researchers engaged in the fields of economic and political science, global studies and international relations. Furthermore, it will also be addressed to policy makers of European States as it contains a complex analysis of their policy responses and the corresponding impact on European economy and society.
Author: Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513555839
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years in 23 countries. We find that a high proportion of them have been followed by lower output or even lower growth. To examine the second, we estimate a Phillips curve relation over the past 50 years for 20 countries. We find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then. We draw implications of our findings for monetary policy.
