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Author: Irving Fisher
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781987817782
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
Following the stock market crash of 1929 and the ensuing Great Depression, Fisher developed a theory of economic crises called "debt-deflation," which rejected general equilibrium theory and attributed crises to the bursting of a credit bubble. According to the debt deflation theory, a sequence of effects of the debt bubble bursting occurs: 1. Debt liquidation and distress selling. 2. Contraction of the money supply as bank loans are paid off. 3. A fall in the level of asset prices. 4. A still greater fall in the net worth of businesses, precipitating bankruptcies. 5. A fall in profits. 6. A reduction in output, in trade and in employment. 7. Pessimism and loss of confidence. 8. Hoarding of money. 9. A fall in nominal interest rates and a rise in deflation adjusted interest rates. This theory was ignored in favor of Keynesian economics, partly due to the damage to Fisher's reputation from his overly optimistic attitude prior to the crash, but has experienced a revival of mainstream interest since the 1980s, particularly since the Late-2000s recession, and is now a main theory with which he is popularly associated.
Author: Atif Mian
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022627750X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 238
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Book Description
“A concise and powerful account of how the great recession happened and what should be done to avoid another one . . . well-argued and consistently informative.” —Wall Street Journal The Great American Recession of 2007-2009 resulted in the loss of eight million jobs and the loss of four million homes to foreclosures. Is it a coincidence that the United States witnessed a dramatic rise in household debt in the years before the recession—that the total amount of debt for American households doubled between 2000 and 2007 to $14 trillion? Definitely not. Armed with clear and powerful evidence, Atif Mian and Amir Sufi reveal in House of Debt how the Great Recession and Great Depression, as well as less dramatic periods of economic malaise, were caused by a large run-up in household debt followed by a significantly large drop in household spending. Though the banking crisis captured the public’s attention, Mian and Sufi argue strongly with actual data that current policy is too heavily biased toward protecting banks and creditors. Increasing the flow of credit, they show, is disastrously counterproductive when the fundamental problem is too much debt. As their research shows, excessive household debt leads to foreclosures, causing individuals to spend less and save more. Less spending means less demand for goods, followed by declines in production and huge job losses. How do we end such a cycle? With a direct attack on debt, say Mian and Sufi. We can be rid of painful bubble-and-bust episodes only if the financial system moves away from its reliance on inflexible debt contracts. As an example, they propose new mortgage contracts that are built on the principle of risk-sharing, a concept that would have prevented the housing bubble from emerging in the first place. Thoroughly grounded in compelling economic evidence, House of Debt offers convincing answers to some of the most important questions facing today’s economy: Why do severe recessions happen? Could we have prevented the Great Recession and its consequences? And what actions are needed to prevent such crises going forward?
Author: Irving Fisher
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781987817782
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 28
Get Book Here
Book Description
Following the stock market crash of 1929 and the ensuing Great Depression, Fisher developed a theory of economic crises called "debt-deflation," which rejected general equilibrium theory and attributed crises to the bursting of a credit bubble. According to the debt deflation theory, a sequence of effects of the debt bubble bursting occurs: 1. Debt liquidation and distress selling. 2. Contraction of the money supply as bank loans are paid off. 3. A fall in the level of asset prices. 4. A still greater fall in the net worth of businesses, precipitating bankruptcies. 5. A fall in profits. 6. A reduction in output, in trade and in employment. 7. Pessimism and loss of confidence. 8. Hoarding of money. 9. A fall in nominal interest rates and a rise in deflation adjusted interest rates. This theory was ignored in favor of Keynesian economics, partly due to the damage to Fisher's reputation from his overly optimistic attitude prior to the crash, but has experienced a revival of mainstream interest since the 1980s, particularly since the Late-2000s recession, and is now a main theory with which he is popularly associated.
Author: Peter Temin
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262261197
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 220
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Book Description
Lessons from the Great Depression provides an integrated view of the depression, covering the experience in Britain, France, Germany, and the United States. Do events of the 1930s carry a message for the 1990s? Lessons from the Great Depression provides an integrated view of the depression, covering the experience in Britain, France, Germany, and the United States. It describes the causes of the depression, why it was so widespread and prolonged, and what brought about eventual recovery. Peter Temin also finds parallels in recent history, in the relentless deflationary course followed by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and the British government in the early 1980s, and in the dogged adherence by the Reagan administration to policies generated by a discredited economic theory—supply-side economics.
Author: Stathis
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780975577653
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
For nearly three decades, America has been gradually losing ground to the developed world in many critical areas. The result is that the American standard of living has been in decline for over two decades, with the middle class having been affected the most. Meanwhile, the rich have gotten wealthier and now America is a nation controlled by corporate America. Hidden by two-income households and open access to credit, declining living standards have gone unnoticed by most Americans. Spending beyond one's means has become the American way of life and is encouraged by the government. In contrast, saving is almost unheard of in America. As a result, this once power nation has changed from the world's largest creditor to the world's largest debtor. Decades of over consumption by Americans can only last so long before a day of reckoning occurs. The deflation of the Internet Bubble resulted in the paper loss of over $7 trillion dollars, yet most people seem to have already forgotten the most scandalous charades in U.S. history by Wall Street and corporate America. And now, as the retirement assets of tens of millions of Americans are in question, an even larger number are caught up in the largest real estate bubble in our history. As we enter the two next decades, 76 million baby boomers will retire, most of them in poverty. Thus, the generation that was responsible for creating the greatest bull market in U.S. history may, through no choice of its own, also be the same group that causes an economic meltdown due to decades of government mismanagement, inadequate planning, and overconsumption. During this same time frame, many expect the global oil production is gradually decline due to what is known as the peak oil theory. Obviously, this has enormous consequences of its own. Today, America is in the final preparatory stages that will lead to a massive economic meltdown resulting in the Next Great Depression, as over 46 million Americans already have no healthcare insurance, Social Security will be inadequate for the 76 million baby boomers who will retire over the next several years, energy prices will remain high for some time, and for the first time ever, Americans can no longer live with the comfort knowing that they are safe on their own soil. These issues will only get worse and when the appropriate triggers are set off, a domino effect will commence, sending the stock and bond markets into a downward spiral. This book claims to represent the most detailed and exhaustive analysis of America's current and future economic plight, as well as that of its capital markets. Rather than making bold claims supported by scant data, this book makes use of several hundred figures, tables, and charts, as well as over 700 references to support the premise that a depression is inevitable for America. Finally, the final three chapters address economic and market risks and provide investment guidance and strategy for investors to position themselves to profit before and during America's next great depression.
Author: Mr.Barry J. Eichengreen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484392892
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
We consider public debt from a long-term historical perspective, showing how the purposes for which governments borrow have evolved over time. Periods when debt-to-GDP ratios rose explosively as a result of wars, depressions and financial crises also have a long history. Many of these episodes resulted in debt-management problems resolved through debasements and restructurings. Less widely appreciated are successful debt consolidation episodes, instances in which governments inheriting heavy debts ran primary surpluses for long periods in order to reduce those burdens to sustainable levels. We analyze the economic and political circumstances that made these successful debt consolidation episodes possible.
Author: Moritz Schularick
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022681694X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 318
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Book Description
An authoritative guide to the new economics of our crisis-filled century. Published in collaboration with the Institute for New Economic Thinking. The 2008 financial crisis was a seismic event that laid bare how financial institutions’ instabilities can have devastating effects on societies and economies. COVID-19 brought similar financial devastation at the beginning of 2020 and once more massive interventions by central banks were needed to heed off the collapse of the financial system. All of which begs the question: why is our financial system so fragile and vulnerable that it needs government support so often? For a generation of economists who have risen to prominence since 2008, these events have defined not only how they view financial instability, but financial markets more broadly. Leveraged brings together these voices to take stock of what we have learned about the costs and causes of financial fragility and to offer a new canonical framework for understanding it. Their message: the origins of financial instability in modern economies run deeper than the technical debates around banking regulation, countercyclical capital buffers, or living wills for financial institutions. Leveraged offers a fundamentally new picture of how financial institutions and societies coexist, for better or worse. The essays here mark a new starting point for research in financial economics. As we muddle through the effects of a second financial crisis in this young century, Leveraged provides a road map and a research agenda for the future.
Author: Carlos Marichal
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Debts, External
Languages : en
Pages : 312
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Book Description
Carlos Marichal contends that the boom-and-bust cycles of Latin American foreign loans result mainly from the fluctuations of the world economy, rather than from errors made in Latin America itself. Marichal shows that the present debt crisis is only a part of an overall pattern in Latin American history--cycles of loan boom and subsequent debt crisis that are heavily influenced by fluctuations of international trade and capital flows. He also reveals the significant role played by those who implement debt policies. Examining the strategies of both lenders and borrowers, he makes it clear that foreign loan negotiations are not only financial tools but also political instruments with broad economic and social consequences. The book analyzes in detail the four major debt crises that took place in Latin America during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Marichal's focus is comparative, since the contracting of foreign loans and their repayment were problems common to virtually all nations of the region. He devotes special attention to explaining the links of these debt crises to the international financial panics of 1825, 1873, 1890, and 1929. The epilogue compares the debt crises of the past with the contemporary Latin American debt crisis.
Author: Ben S. Bernanke
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400820278
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 321
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Book Description
From the Nobel Prize–winning economist and former chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, a landmark book that provides vital lessons for understanding financial crises and their sometimes-catastrophic economic effects As chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve during the Global Financial Crisis, Ben Bernanke helped avert a greater financial disaster than the Great Depression. And he did so by drawing directly on what he had learned from years of studying the causes of the economic catastrophe of the 1930s—work for which he was later awarded the Nobel Prize. This influential work is collected in Essays on the Great Depression, an important account of the origins of the Depression and the economic lessons it teaches.
Author: R. Boyce
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230280765
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 623
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Book Description
Challenging the standard narrative of Interwar International History, this account establishes the causal relationship between the global political and economic crises of the period, and offers a radically new look at the role of ideology, racism and the leading liberal powers in the events between the First and Second World Wars.
Author: Kenneth D. Garbade
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262297795
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 407
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Book Description
The evolution of “a marvel of modern finance,” the market for U.S. Treasury securities, from 1917 to 1939. The market for U.S. Treasury securities is a marvel of modern finance. In 2009 the Treasury auctioned $8.2 trillion of new securities, ranging from 4-day bills to 30-year bonds, in 283 offerings on 171 different days. By contrast, in the decade before World War I, there was only about $1 billion of interest-bearing Treasury debt outstanding, spread out over just six issues. New offerings were rare, and the debt was narrowly held, most of it owned by national banks. In Birth of a Market, Kenneth Garbade traces the development of the Treasury market from a financial backwater in the years before World War I to a multibillion dollar market on the eve of World War II. Garbade focuses on Treasury debt management policies, describing the origins of several pillars of modern Treasury practice, including “regular and predictable” auction offerings and the integration of debt and cash management. He recounts the actions of Secretaries of the Treasury, from William McAdoo in the Wilson administration to Henry Morgenthau in the Roosevelt administration, and their responses to economic conditions. Garbade's account covers the Treasury market in the two decades before World War I, how the Treasury financed the Great War, how it managed the postwar refinancing and paydowns, and how it financed the chronic deficits of the Great Depression. He concludes with an examination of aspects of modern Treasury debt management that grew out of developments from 1917 to 1939.
