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Author: Robert McNally
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 0231543689
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 336
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Book Description
As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations. Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how—even from the oil industry's first years—wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions—first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC—succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations—including mistakes to avoid—as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.
Author: Robert McNally
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 0231543689
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 336
Get Book Here
Book Description
As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations. Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how—even from the oil industry's first years—wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions—first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC—succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations—including mistakes to avoid—as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 72
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Book Description
Author: Kenneth L. Kincel
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Gasoline
Languages : en
Pages : 92
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475572360
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Author: Roberto F. Aguilera
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107110017
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 253
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Book Description
This book explains why oil prices rose so spectacularly in the past and examines how they will be suppressed in the future.
Author: Morris Albert Adelman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Oil and gas leases
Languages : en
Pages : 152
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Book Description
Author: Robert A. Marshalla
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Petroleum
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Michael Kumhof
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475539975
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult.
Author: Mr.Jaromir Benes
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475567405
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has plateaued since 2005 despite historically high prices, and that spare capacity has been near historic lows. The technological view of oil expects that higher oil prices must eventually have a decisive effect on oil output, by encouraging technological solutions. It is supported by the fact that high prices have, since 2003, led to upward revisions in production forecasts based on a purely geological view. We present a nonlinear econometric model of the world oil market that encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing empirical models in forecasting oil prices and oil output out of sample. Its point forecast is for a near doubling of the real price of oil over the coming decade. The error bands are wide, and reflect sharply differing judgments on ultimately recoverable reserves, and on future price elasticities of oil demand and supply.
Author: Rauli Partanen
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317615972
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 213
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Book Description
Substantial evidence suggests that we are currently living at the peak of oil production with few prospects for cheap oil ever returning. Yet the media, politicians and regular people have hardly started to talk about what this means. Oil literally runs our societies from transportation to food production to economic activity. Without oil, everything stops. There are powerful arguments that if we fail to increase oil production, we will also fail to grow our economy as a whole. For oil importing western nations the news is bleak; higher oil prices seem to put a glass ceiling on their economic growth, making current debt problems worse no matter what monetary and economic policies we might choose. The World After Cheap Oil offers a thorough package of information about oil; its uses and its role in our society’s important sectors. It presents the most prominent substitutes and alternatives, and their limits and promises. It also delves deep into the many risks, problems and mechanisms that can make the world after cheap oil a much more unstable place for nations and humanity as a whole. The book also explains why there has been so little public debate on the subject, and what the future might look like after oil production starts its final, terminal decline.
