The Exposure to Routinization: Labor Market Implications for Developed and Developing Economies PDF Download
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Author: Ms.Mitali Das
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 148436340X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 39
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Book Description
Evidence that the automation of routine tasks has contributed to the polarization of labor markets has been documented for many developed economies, but little is known about its incidence in developing economies. We propose a measure of the exposure to routinization—that is, the risk of the displacement of labor by information technology—and assemble several facts that link the exposure to routinization with the prospects of polarization. Drawing on exposures for about 85 countries since 1990, we establish that: (1) developing economies are significantly less exposed to routinization than their developed counterparts; (2) the initial exposure to routinization is a strong predictor of the long-run exposure; and (3) among countries with high initial exposures to routinization, polarization dynamics have been strong and subsequent exposures have fallen; while among those with low initial exposure, the globalization of trade and structural transformation have prevailed and routine exposures have risen. Although we find little evidence of polarization in developing countries thus far, with rapidly rising exposures to routinization, the risks of future labor market polarization have escalated with potentially significant consequences for productivity, growth and distribution.
Author: Ms.Mitali Das
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 148436340X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 39
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Book Description
Evidence that the automation of routine tasks has contributed to the polarization of labor markets has been documented for many developed economies, but little is known about its incidence in developing economies. We propose a measure of the exposure to routinization—that is, the risk of the displacement of labor by information technology—and assemble several facts that link the exposure to routinization with the prospects of polarization. Drawing on exposures for about 85 countries since 1990, we establish that: (1) developing economies are significantly less exposed to routinization than their developed counterparts; (2) the initial exposure to routinization is a strong predictor of the long-run exposure; and (3) among countries with high initial exposures to routinization, polarization dynamics have been strong and subsequent exposures have fallen; while among those with low initial exposure, the globalization of trade and structural transformation have prevailed and routine exposures have risen. Although we find little evidence of polarization in developing countries thus far, with rapidly rising exposures to routinization, the risks of future labor market polarization have escalated with potentially significant consequences for productivity, growth and distribution.
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 926434697X
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 148
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Book Description
COVID-19 has led to a labour market shock in Canada and is likely to generate a profound reflection on production and consumption habits. COVID‐19 is also likely to accelerate automation as firms look to new technologies to pandemic proof their operations.
Author: Ceyhun Elgin
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1040096808
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 458
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Book Description
Delve into the complex landscape of the informal economy with the Routledge Handbook of the Informal Economy, a groundbreaking volume that transcends conventional economic analysis by contextualizing it within a broader regulatory and social framework. This comprehensive handbook offers cutting-edge categorical, thematic, and regional analyses of the informal, or shadow, economy. An esteemed international ensemble of contributors draws on diverse economic perspectives, exploring a spectrum of definitions and measures, including household, firm-level, and employment-based metrics, alongside perceptional and model-based estimates. Employing a variety of econometric and methodological approaches, the volume provides both regional and global estimates of the informal economy's extent. Beyond conventional boundaries, it unveils various facets of informality, from child labor, tax evasion, and self-employment to precarious and undeclared work. In-depth examinations of the determinants and consequences of informality enhance the volume's robust analysis. As a forward-looking compendium, the handbook also offers insights into the future trajectory of the informal economy as we journey further into the 21st century. This definitive and up-to-date reference work is indispensable for readers in labor economics, development economics, political economy, policy studies, and sociology, offering a nuanced understanding of the multifaceted dimensions and dynamics of the informal economy.
Author: Mr.JaeBin Ahn
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484393902
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
Economic development and growth depend on a country’s young people. With most of their working life ahead of them they make up about a third of the working-age population in the typical emerging market and developing economy. But the youth in these economies face a daunting labor market—about 20 percent of them are neither employed, in school, nor in training (the youth inactivity rate). This is double the share in the average advanced economy. Were nothing else to change, bringing youth inactivity in these economies down to what it is in advanced economies and getting those inactive young people into new jobs would have a striking effect. The working-age employment rate in the average emerging market and developing economy would rise more than 3 percentage points, and real output would get a 5 percent boost.
Author: Andy Sumner
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 019259446X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 176
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Book Description
The term rust belt has rarely been associated with developing countries. In fact, it is commonly used to discuss deindustrialization in advanced nations, particularly the US. However, this book argues that such a belt is now threatening the middle-income developing world, spreading across Brazil and other countries in Latin America, running down across South Africa, and then upwards to Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines in South East Asia. Deindustrialization, Distribution, and Development: Structural Change in the Global South explores the emergent processes of stalled industrialization and the spectre of deindustrialization in these developing countries. Building upon the author's previous work on economic development, structural change, and income inequality, this book examines the causes and consequences of these new issues, focusing on inequality both between and within countries since the Cold War. Providing a comparative, in-depth analysis of the varieties of contemporary structural change in the Global South and challenging many long-standing myths, this work explains why late development remains a crucial concept in understanding contemporary development and explores what deindustrialization means for the future of global development.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513508210
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 208
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Book Description
Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook.
Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464815089
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 180
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Book Description
Growth in the developing East Asia and Pacific region slowed in the first half of 2019 given weakening global demand and heightened policy uncertainty amid ongoing trade tensions. Steady consumption growth helped to partly offset the effects of weakening exports and investment on growth. The region’s growth prospects face intensified downside risks, including further escalation of trade disputes, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China, the United States and the Euro Area, along with a disorderly Brexit, and an abrupt change in global financing conditions. In some countries, rising indebtedness and other vulnerabilities, such as the constrained capacity for foreign debt rollover, could amplify the negative effects of external shocks. The regional growth moderation underscores the need to address key vulnerabilities and preserve economic dynamism among developing East Asia and Pacific economies. In the short run, countries with sufficient policy space should use available policy tools to stimulate domestic activities. Better quality spending, together with prudent debt management, is needed to safeguard fiscal sustainability. Deepening regional integration would help offset the negative impact of global protectionism. In the medium to long term, pursuing structural reforms that raise competitiveness, support trade and investment, and encourage innovation is critical to boosting productivity and growth.
Author: Mariya Brussevich
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484379764
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
New technologies?digitalization, artificial intelligence, and machine learning?are changing the way work gets done at an unprecedented rate. Helping people adapt to a fast-changing world of work and ameliorating its deleterious impacts will be the defining challenge of our time. What are the gender implications of this changing nature of work? How vulnerable are women’s jobs to risk of displacement by technology? What policies are needed to ensure that technological change supports a closing, and not a widening, of gender gaps? This SDN finds that women, on average, perform more routine tasks than men across all sectors and occupations?tasks that are most prone to automation. Given the current state of technology, we estimate that 26 million female jobs in 30 countries (28 OECD member countries, Cyprus, and Singapore) are at a high risk of being displaced by technology (i.e., facing higher than 70 percent likelihood of being automated) within the next two decades. Female workers face a higher risk of automation compared to male workers (11 percent of the female workforce, relative to 9 percent of the male workforce), albeit with significant heterogeneity across sectors and countries. Less well-educated and older female workers (aged 40 and above), as well as those in low-skill clerical, service, and sales positions are disproportionately exposed to automation. Extrapolating our results, we find that around 180 million female jobs are at high risk of being displaced globally. Policies are needed to endow women with required skills; close gender gaps in leadership positions; bridge digital gender divide (as ongoing digital transformation could confer greater flexibility in work, benefiting women); ease transitions for older and low-skilled female workers.
Author: Panagiotis E. Petrakis
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3031049381
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 321
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Book Description
The role of human capital has diversified considerably in the last 100 years. Today, the prevailing perception seeks a sustainable, integrated development which is based on the triptych of environment, economy, and society. In this mode of development, human capital has a positive effect on the economy, on social cohesion and optimal governance, as well as on the ecological footprint. This book studies the critical role of human capital in the Greek economy and its production structure. In doing so, this book analyzes the Greek labor market, employment, and structural changes, among other facets of this vibrant economy.
Author: Mariya Brussevich
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498303749
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 37
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Book Description
Using individual level data on task composition at work for 30 advanced and emerging economies, we find that women, on average, perform more routine tasks than men?tasks that are more prone to automation. To quantify the impact on jobs, we relate data on task composition at work to occupation level estimates of probability of automation, controlling for a rich set of individual characteristics (e.g., education, age, literacy and numeracy skills). Our results indicate that female workers are at a significantly higher risk for displacement by automation than male workers, with 11 percent of the female workforce at high risk of being automated given the current state of technology, albeit with significant cross-country heterogeneity. The probability of automation is lower for younger cohorts of women, and for those in managerial positions.
