The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics under Model Uncertainty - Evidence from the US and the Euro Area PDF Download
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Author: Carlo Altavilla
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
This paper explores the role that the imperfect knowledge of the structure of the economy plays in the uncertainty surrounding the effects of rule-based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure on a wide range of models which differ in several dimensions to account for the uncertainty that the policymaker faces when setting the monetary policy and evaluating its effect on real economy. We find evidence of a high degree of dispersion across models in both policy rule parameters and impulse response functions. Moreover, monetary policy shocks have very similar recessionary effects on the two economies with a different role played by the participation rate in the transmission mechanism. Finally, we show that a policy maker who does not take model uncertainty into account and selects the results on the basis of a single model may come to misleading conclusions not only about the transmission mechanism, but also about the differences between the euro area and the US, which are on average essentially small.
Author: Carlo Altavilla
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
This paper explores the role that the imperfect knowledge of the structure of the economy plays in the uncertainty surrounding the effects of rule-based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure on a wide range of models which differ in several dimensions to account for the uncertainty that the policymaker faces when setting the monetary policy and evaluating its effect on real economy. We find evidence of a high degree of dispersion across models in both policy rule parameters and impulse response functions. Moreover, monetary policy shocks have very similar recessionary effects on the two economies with a different role played by the participation rate in the transmission mechanism. Finally, we show that a policy maker who does not take model uncertainty into account and selects the results on the basis of a single model may come to misleading conclusions not only about the transmission mechanism, but also about the differences between the euro area and the US, which are on average essentially small.
Author: Carlo Altavilla
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Carlo Altavilla
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : de
Pages :
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Author: Sangyup Choi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498328539
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
Author: Tobias Adrian
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484344480
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 297
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Book Description
Inflation-forecast targeting is state of the art for monetary policy. This book explores first principles, including managing short-term policy trade-offs. The book also outlines efficient operational procedures and reviews the experiences of Canada, the Czech Republic, and India. The analysis highlights the need for assertive policies and maximum transparency.
Author: Janet Louise Yellen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498344267
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
The issue of using monetary policy for financial stability purposes is hotly contested. The crisis was a reminder that price stability is not sufficient for financial stability, financial crises are costly, and policy should aim to decrease the likelihood of crises, not only rely on dealing with their repercussions once they occur. It is clear that well-targeted prudential policies (including micro and macroprudential regulation and supervision) should be pursued actively to attenuate the buildup of financial risks. The question is whether monetary policy should be altered to contain financial stability risks. Should it lend a hand by temporarily raising interest rates more than warranted by price and output stability objectives? Keeping rates persistently higher is also possible, but more costly.
Author: Yevgeniy Teryoshin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This thesis consists of three chapters that study the effects of monetary policy uncertainty and deviations from rule-based policy. In the first chapter, I develop an extension of the standard New Keynesian model to monetary policy regime switching to study the impact of uncertainty around the future inflation target. First, I fully characterize how the responses of current inflation and output to inflation target uncertainty depend on the monetary policy rule. If monetary policy is passive, inflation may increase far beyond the anticipated increase in the inflation target, while a strong monetary response to expected inflation results in an immediate drop in the inflation rate. Next, I derive the optimal response of the central bank, which can be achieved by adjusting the current inflation target. A central bank unwilling to adjust the inflation target can optimally adjust other policy rule parameters and can often obtain comparatively similar welfare benefits. Finally, I examine the implications of a perfectly anticipated change in the inflation target and find it is likely to generate cyclical dynamics for inflation and output under a constant policy rule. An optimal time varying policy rule or uncertainty in the period of the inflation target change eliminates cyclical fluctuations and improves welfare. In the second chapter, I apply the New Keynesian model with regime switching of the policy rule to study other dimensions of monetary policy uncertainty. I find that expectations of a regime shift in the future affect current inflation stability in the direction of the expected policy shift, but paradoxically expectations of a shift to a sub-optimal regime may result in better outcomes under the current regime due to the asymmetric effect on output and inflation stability. Additionally, I find that the central bank's first best response is to completely eliminate the uncertainty and that regime switching can only be part of an optimal policy if eventually monetary policy converges to the optimal single regime policy. In the final chapter, I construct the differences between rule-based monetary policy for multiple interest rate rules and the actual interest rates for nine countries using real-time data available to policymakers at the time. I document that more rule-like policy is associated with greater economic stability. Additionally, I find evidence that the association between rule-like policy and greater economic stability is causal by examining the timing of the structural breaks and the changes in central bank policy, using vector autoregressions, and regression specifications relying on the temporal ordering of lagged deviations from the policy rules.
Author: Ansgar Belke
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783867887991
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Mr. Pietro Garibaldi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451894589
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
This paper presents theory and evidence on the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on job creation and job destruction. First, it solves a dynamic matching model and it shows how interest rate changes result in an asymmetric response of job creation and destruction. Second, it looks at how changes in the federal fund rate affect gross job flows in the U.S. manufacturing industry, and it finds evidence of asymmetry. Tight policy increases job destruction and reduces net employment changes. Conversely, easy policy appears ineffective in stimulating job creation.
Author: Oliver Hülsewig
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We examine the impact of the European Central Bank's monetary policy on the euro area labor markets over the period 2010-2018. Using Jordà's (2005) local projection method, we find that unemployment rates decline in response to expansionary monetary policy surprises that can be related to unconventional policy measures. At the same time, hours worked rise. In the periphery countries, the reduction in unemployment rates is relatively pronounced, while in the core countries it is only minor. Thus, labor markets in the euro area were impacted differently by unconventional monetary policy measures.
