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Author: Olivier Blanchard
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : es
Pages : 24
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Author: Olivier Blanchard
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : es
Pages : 24
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Olivier J. Blanchard
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Author: Helmut Hofer
Publisher:
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Category : Autoregression (Statistics)
Languages : en
Pages : 21
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Author: John W. Keating
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 20
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Author: Marco Lippi
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Author: Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques
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Category :
Languages : fr
Pages : 12
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Author: Hilde C. Bjørnland
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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This paper analyses the dynamic effects of aggregate demand, supply and oil price shocks on GDP and unemployment in Germany, Norway, the UK and the USA, and establishes the role of the different shocks in explaining output fluctuations over time. Symmetries of economic fluctuations across countries are also examined. The different shocks are identified by imposing dynamic restrictions on a structural vector autoregression model. For all countries except Norway, oil price shocks have significant negative effects on output. However, whereas the oil price shock in 1973-74 triggered off a global recession, the recession in the early 1980s was largely caused by other disturbances.
Author: Olivier J. Blanchard
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ISBN:
Category : Gross national product
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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We interpret fluctuations in GNP and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances: disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not. We interpret the first as supply disturbances, the second as demand disturbances. We find that demand disturbances have a hump shaped effect on both output and unemployment; the effect peaks after a year and vanishes after two to five years. Up to a scale factor, the dynamic effect on unemployment of demand disturbances is a mirror image of that on output. The effect of supply disturbances on output increases steadily over time, to reach a peak after two years and a plateau after five years. 'Favorab1e supply disturbances may initially increase unemployment. This is followed by a decline in unemployment, with a slow return over time to its original value. While this dynamic characterization is fairly sharp, the data are not as specific as to the relative contributions of demand and supply disturbances to output fluctuations. We find that the time series of demand-determined output fluctuations has peaks and troughs which coincide with most of the NBER troughs and peaks. But variance decompositions of output at various horizons giving the respective contributions of supply and demand disturbances are not precisely estimated. For instance, at a forecast horizon of four quarters, we find that, under alternative assumptions, the contribution of demand disturbances ranges from 40 to over 95 per cent.
Author: Johanna Hartikainen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Tiivistelmä.
