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Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Devaluation of currency
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
In this paper, we investigate the link between the real foreign exchange value of the dollar and real interest rates since 1979. We argue that it is important to consider the possibility that real exchange rate movements reflect movements of the long-run equilibrium exchange rate as well as real interest differentials. We use a state-space approach to estimate the importance of shifts in the long-run equilibrium exchange rate, the persistence of the ex ante short-term real interest differential, and the effect of this differential on the exchange rate. Using U.S., Canadian, British, German and Japanese data from October 1979 to March 1986, we find that movements in the dollar real exchange rate have been dominated by unanticipated shifts in the expected long-run real exchange rate. Ex ante real interest differentials have not been persistent or variable enough to account for a major part of exchange rate variation. We use Mussa's (1984) rational expectations model of the real exchange rate and the current account to interpret our results
Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Devaluation of currency
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
In this paper, we investigate the link between the real foreign exchange value of the dollar and real interest rates since 1979. We argue that it is important to consider the possibility that real exchange rate movements reflect movements of the long-run equilibrium exchange rate as well as real interest differentials. We use a state-space approach to estimate the importance of shifts in the long-run equilibrium exchange rate, the persistence of the ex ante short-term real interest differential, and the effect of this differential on the exchange rate. Using U.S., Canadian, British, German and Japanese data from October 1979 to March 1986, we find that movements in the dollar real exchange rate have been dominated by unanticipated shifts in the expected long-run real exchange rate. Ex ante real interest differentials have not been persistent or variable enough to account for a major part of exchange rate variation. We use Mussa's (1984) rational expectations model of the real exchange rate and the current account to interpret our results
Author: Richard Clarida
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
In this paper, we investigate the link between the real foreign exchange value of the dollar and real interest rates since 1979. We argue that it is important to consider the possibility that real exchange rate movements reflect movements of the long-run equilibrium exchange rate as well as real interest differentials. We use a state-space approach to estimate the importance of shifts in the long-run equilibrium exchange rate, the persistence of the ex ante short-term real interest differential, and the effect of this differential on the exchange rate. Using U.S., Canadian, British, German and Japanese data from October 1979 to March 1986, we find that movements in the dollar real exchange rate have been dominated by unanticipated shifts in the expected long-run real exchange rate. Ex ante real interest differentials have not been persistent or variable enough to account for a major part of exchange rate variation. We use Mussa's (1984) rational expectations model of the real exchange rate and the current account to interpret our results.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Francisco Nadal De Simone
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451856164
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
This paper reexamines some unsettled theoretical and empirical issues regarding the relationship between nominal exchange rates and interest rate differentials and provides a model for the behavior of exchange rates in the long run, where interest rates are determined in the bond market. The model predicts that an increase in the interest rate differential appreciates the home currency. We test the model for the U.S. dollar against the Deutsche mark, the British pound, the Japanese yen, and the Canadian dollar. The first two pairs of exchange rates—for which purchasing power parity seems to hold—display a strong relationship with interest rate differentials.
Author: Edmar L. Bacha
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
We investigate the role of financial dollarization in the determination of real interest rates in emerging economies. In a simple analytical model, we show that a strategy of "dedollarizing" the economy, if it fails to address fundamental macroeconomic risks, leads to higher domestic real interest rates. We confirm this prediction in an empirical model, but find that the effect is small after controlling for the risks of dilution and default. Brazil provides a natural case study given its low degree of financial dollarization and very high real interest rates. The estimated model is unable to explain the high interest rate levels in the aftermath of Brazil's 1994 inflation stabilization. However, since the adoption in 1999 of inflation targeting and floating exchange rates, Brazil's real interest rates are gradually converging to the model's predicted values. The estimation also shows that further drops in Brazil's real interest rates could be achieved more effectively through improvements in fundamentals that lead to investment-grade status rather than through financial dollarization.
Author: John E. Floyd
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642102808
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 406
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Book Description
A careful basic theoretical and econometric analysis of the factors determining the real exchange rates of Canada, the U.K., Japan, France and Germany with respect to the United States is conducted. The resulting conclusion is that real exchange rates are almost entirely determined by real factors relating to growth and technology such as oil and commodity prices, international allocations of world investment across countries, and underlying terms of trade changes. Unanticipated money supply shocks, calculated in five alternative ways have virtually no effects. A Blanchard-Quah VAR analysis also indicates that the effects of real shocks predominate over monetary shocks by a wide margin. The implications of these facts for the conduct of monetary policy in countries outside the U.S. are then explored leading to the conclusion that all countries, to avoid exchange rate overshooting, have tended to automatically follow the same monetary policy as the United States. The history of world monetary policy is reviewed along with the determination of real exchange rates within the Euro Area.
Author: Birgitta Ryberg
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 14
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Book Description
Author: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Balance of payments
Languages : en
Pages : 270
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Book Description
Author: James R Lothian
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9813148314
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 820
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Book Description
The aim of the book is to make the author's scholarly research in the areas of international finance and monetary economics easily accessible to other researchers and students. The articles included in the book span a wide range. The topics include the behavior of the three key relations in international finance, purchasing power parity, interest rate parity and real interest rate equality, the relation between money and other key economic variables, financial globalization and the transmission of economic disturbances internationally.
Author: Hali J. Edison
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
