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Author: Mr. Alberto Behar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
In terms of size, the net income balance (IB) is comparable to the trade balance (TB) for many countries. Yet the role of the IB in mitigating external vulnerabilities or complicating external adjustment remains underexplored. This paper studies the role of the IB in stabilizing or destabilizing the current account over the cycle and in crises. Our results show that, due to a negative correlation with the TB, the IB significantly dampens the time series volatility of the current account for most countries. However, the IB generally does not improve during crisis episodes, so current account adjustment occurs entirely through improvements in the TB. The paper also estimates IB semi-elasticities with respect to the exchange rate (ER). Semi-elasticities are small for most countries, so the IB is generally not a significant channel through which the ER stabilizes the current account, and trade-based semi-elasticities are, with some important exceptions, good proxies for current account semi-elasticities used in external sector assessments.
Author: Mr. Alberto Behar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46
Get Book Here
Book Description
In terms of size, the net income balance (IB) is comparable to the trade balance (TB) for many countries. Yet the role of the IB in mitigating external vulnerabilities or complicating external adjustment remains underexplored. This paper studies the role of the IB in stabilizing or destabilizing the current account over the cycle and in crises. Our results show that, due to a negative correlation with the TB, the IB significantly dampens the time series volatility of the current account for most countries. However, the IB generally does not improve during crisis episodes, so current account adjustment occurs entirely through improvements in the TB. The paper also estimates IB semi-elasticities with respect to the exchange rate (ER). Semi-elasticities are small for most countries, so the IB is generally not a significant channel through which the ER stabilizes the current account, and trade-based semi-elasticities are, with some important exceptions, good proxies for current account semi-elasticities used in external sector assessments.
Author: Alberto Behar
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The role of the income balance in mitigating external vulnerabilities remains underexplored. We estimate income balance semi-elasticities with respect to the exchange rate. Semi-elasticities are small for most countries. Therefore, the income balance is generally not a significant channel through which the exchange rate stabilizes the current account and most exchange rate misalignment estimates can focus on trade, but there is a significant minority of exceptions.
Author: Maurice Obstfeld
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Balance of trade
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
"Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets -- the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position -- the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations"--NBER website
Author: Mr. Cian Allen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
The assessment of external positions and exchange rates of member countries is a key mandate of the IMF. The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has provided the framework for conducting external sector assessments by Fund staff since its introduction in 2012. This paper provides the latest version of the EBA methodology, updated in 2022 with additional refinements to the current account and real exchange rate regression models, as well as updated estimates for other components of the EBA methodology. The paper also includes an assessment of how estimated current account gaps based on EBA are associated with future external adjustment.
Author: Ruizhi Xie
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange rates
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This thesis investigates the nature of the dynamic relationship between external balances and exchange rate dynamics in a macroeconomy. Specifically, this study focuses on how various measures of external balances serve as economic buffers to mitigate the effect of exchange rate shock to the economy. It examines the dynamic relationship between external balances and exchange rate shock via the application of cointegrated vector autoregression method and innovation accounting with generalized impulse responses and forecast error variance decompositions. The data sample spans the period 1986-2008 and includes three important developing countries: Brazil, China and India. Empirical evidence shows that for China and India, understanding of the exchange rate dynamics is helpful in predicting the movement of external balances. But for Brazil, the reverse path is true. Results of generalized impulse responses suggest that external balances demonstrate a predictable and systematic pattern after a one-time exchange rate shock. Specifically, the results indicate that exchange rate shock generates a positive response in current account adjustment and has a negative impact on capital gains. The latter soon gives rise to a small drop in current account balance due to temporary income shock and capital mobility. Taking account of the overall current account and capital gains adjustment (one positive and one negative), change in net foreign assets (NFA) position is largely cushioned from exchange rate shock. Integrating the results of generalized impulse responses and Granger causality tests, it is easy to find that there exists a feedback mechanism which significantly contributes to the adjustment of external imbalances. Moreover, terms of trade and domestic productivity serve as transmission channels which play a critical role in the system. From a policy perspective, in coping with enlarged global imbalances, exchange rate as well as terms of trade and domestic productivity should receive more attention in policy decisions to stabilize the economy.
Author: Bo Jiang
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498314023
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
Using a new firm-level dataset with comprehensive information on Asian firms’ FX liabilities, we show that Asia’s nonfinancial corporate sector is vulnerable to a tightening of global financial conditions. Higher global interest rates and exchange rate depreciation increase the probability of default of Asian firms. A 30 percent currency depreciation is associated with a two-notch downgrade in the corporate credit rating (e.g., from A to BBB+), resulting in 7 percent of Asian firms falling into bankruptcy. But the impact is nonlinear—as the firms’ FX liability increases, the balance sheet channel of exchange rate offsets, then dominates, the competitiveness channel. The balance sheet channel offsets the competitiveness channel when the share of U.S. dollar debt is between 10 and 20 percent. We also find that currency depreciation increases firm-level investment on average, but for firms with the share of FX liabilities above 20 percent, investment contracts with depreciation.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498342434
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 88
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Book Description
This paper explores how banking sector developments and characteristics influence the propagation of risks from the banking sector to sovereign debt, including how they affect the extent of fiscal costs of banking crises when those occur. It then proposes practices and policies for the fiscal authorities to help manage the risks and enhance crisis preparedness.
Author: Luciana Juvenal
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513525379
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 67
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Book Description
This paper provides a dataset on the currency composition of the international investment position for a group of 50 countries for the period 1990-2017. It improves available data based on estimates by incorporating actual data reported by statistical authorities and refining estimation methods. The paper illustrates current and new uses of these data, with particular focus on the evolution of currency exposures of cross-border positions.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498342620
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 45
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Book Description
This note provides guidance to facilitate the staff’s advice on macroprudential policy in Fund surveillance. It elaborates on the principles set out in the “Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy,” taking into account the work of international standard setters as well as the evolving country experience with macroprudential policy. The main note is accompanied by supplements offering Detailed Guidance on Instruments and Considerations for Low Income Countries
Author: Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484359623
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.
