The Case of Monetary Union in West Africa: Would One Currency Fit All? An Empirical Investigation of the Feasibility of the Proposed Common Currency for the ECOWAS PDF Download
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Author: Moritz Becker
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
In recent years, there has been a notable increase in the efforts to establish a monetary union within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Initially scheduled for implementing a common currency in 2003, ECOWAS had agreed to introduce a common currency called the Eco by 2020. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the implementation of the Eco currency was postponed until 2027. This study adds to the existing research on the feasibility of the Eco as a common currency for ECOWAS. It adopts the framework proposed by Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1997) to operationalize the Optimal Currency Area (OCA) theory. Using OLS estimation, the study models the relationship between OCA conditions and the bilateral nominal exchange rate volatility (BNER) among West African countries from 2000 to 2021. The study's findings indicate that the Eco could be considered feasible for the countries within the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and Cape Verde, The Gambia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone. However, Ghana and especially Nigeria do not meet the OCA conditions to the same extent as the other countries. Consequently, an immediate monetary union encompassing all ECOWAS member countries may not be feasible. Nevertheless, the study's policy implications strongly advocate for a gradual integration approach, similar to the Economic and Monetary Union of the European Union (EMU).
Author: Moritz Becker
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
In recent years, there has been a notable increase in the efforts to establish a monetary union within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Initially scheduled for implementing a common currency in 2003, ECOWAS had agreed to introduce a common currency called the Eco by 2020. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the implementation of the Eco currency was postponed until 2027. This study adds to the existing research on the feasibility of the Eco as a common currency for ECOWAS. It adopts the framework proposed by Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1997) to operationalize the Optimal Currency Area (OCA) theory. Using OLS estimation, the study models the relationship between OCA conditions and the bilateral nominal exchange rate volatility (BNER) among West African countries from 2000 to 2021. The study's findings indicate that the Eco could be considered feasible for the countries within the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and Cape Verde, The Gambia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone. However, Ghana and especially Nigeria do not meet the OCA conditions to the same extent as the other countries. Consequently, an immediate monetary union encompassing all ECOWAS member countries may not be feasible. Nevertheless, the study's policy implications strongly advocate for a gradual integration approach, similar to the Economic and Monetary Union of the European Union (EMU).
Author: Mr.Xavier Debrun
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455201405
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 70
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Book Description
This paper develops a full-fledged cost-benefit analysis of monetary integration, and applies it to the currency unions actively pursued in Africa. The benefits of monetary union come from a more credible monetary policy, while the costs derive from real shock asymmetries and fiscal disparities. The model is calibrated using African data. Simulations indicate that the proposed EAC, ECOWAS, and SADC monetary unions bring about net benefits to some potential members, but modest net gains and sometimes net losses for others. Strengthening domestic macroeconomic frameworks is shown to provide some of the same improvements as monetary integration, reducing the latter’s relative attractiveness.
Author: Paul R. Masson
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781589060142
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
In April 2000 six West African countries declared their intention to proceed to monetary union among the non-CFA franc countries of the region by January 2003, as a first step toward a wider monetary union including all the ECOWAS countries in 2004. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate whether a monetary union makes economic sense, to discuss the institutional requirements for successful monetary union and to consider how best the political momentum for a union can be channeled toward a fundamental improvement in underlying policies.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electronic books
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
Since the inception of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in 1975, the founding members have aimed to introduce a single regional currency as a mechanism to achieve continued economic integration, sustainable economic expansion and poverty reduction. This paper empirically assesses the feasibility of the proposed West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) as an optimum currency area by considering potential benefits and costs of the union using the Gravity Model of Trade and Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis respectively. To perform the assessment, I first employ the Gravity Model of Trade to analyze the trade-creating benefits of adopting a common currency by evaluating the effect of currency risk on bilateral trade flows. I find that currency risk is not a significant trade barrier. Then, I perform a VAR analysis to understand the symmetry of shock responses across the proposed union and discover that both supply and demand shocks are generally asymmetric. This finding indicates that the retention of monetary policy autonomy by member countries will be more beneficial than joining the proposed currency union. The results of both analyses indicate that the proposed monetary zone is not an optimal currency area. Finally, I employ a K-means clustering algorithm to derive a statistically driven cluster of countries best suited to form an optimal currency area in West Africa and find three optimal clusters.
Author: E. Olawale Ogunkola
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66
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Author: Joshua Chinedu UGWU
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 19
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Book Description
There is an ongoing discourse with respect to whether or not the West African Sub Region needs a monetary Union as part of its drive towards a more robust economy and the integration of its people. This discourse is without borders, as it has seen experts from all over the world share their thoughts with respect to this issue. Why is west Africa an important region in global politics and why has immense international attention with respect to her fiscal decisions raised eyebrows? The idea of a Monetary Union as canvassed by the Economic Community Of West African States (ECOWAS) through her various institutions and the proposed Launch of the 'Eco', which was recently adopted as the name for the proposed currency, at the 55th Ordinary Session of the Heads of State and Government of ECOWAS, is one of the reasons for this international attention. ECOWAS will not be the first to float a Monetary Union, as there are other regions of the world with various forms of monetary union. Analysts have argued that west Africa does not need a Single Currency, stating that there are other ways by which the region can meet its intended goal without having to float a uniformed currency regime. Others have argued that it is imperative that a monetary union be launched as soon as possible if the sub-region is to indeed achieve maximum integration of its people and shake off completely, the shackles of Colonialism.The purpose of this article is to examine whether,given the current political and economic realities, the west African sub-region needs a monetary union, while pointing out the importance of a monetary union for the region, with recommendations for policy framers. All these are imperative if indeed the benefits accompanying a monetary union vis-à-vis a single currency,are to be effectively harnessed by west Africa.
Author: William A. Barnett
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 1804557587
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 265
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Book Description
This volume of the International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics explores the latest economic and financial developments in Africa and Asia.
Author: Paul R. Masson
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 9780815797531
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 248
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Book Description
Africa is working toward the goal of creating a common currency that would serve as a symbol of African unity. The advantages of a common currency include lower transaction costs, increased stability, and greater insulation of central banks from pressures to provide monetary financing. Disadvantages relate to asymmetries among countries, especially in their terms of trade and in the degree of fiscal discipline. More disciplined countries will not want to form a union with countries whose excessive spending puts upward pressure on the central bank's monetary expansion. In T he Monetary Geography of Africa, Paul Masson and Catherine Pattillo review the history of monetary arrangements on the continent and analyze the current situation and prospects for further integration. They apply lessons from both experience and theory that lead to a number of conclusions. To begin with, West Africa faces a major problem because Nigeria has both asymmetric terms of trade—it is a large oil exporter while its potential partners are oil importers—and most important, large fiscal imbalances. Secondly, a monetary union among all eastern or southern African countries seems infeasible at this stage, since a number of countries suffer from the effects of civil conflicts and drought and are far from achieving the macroeconomic stability of South Africa. Lastly, the plan by Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda to create a common currency seems to be generally compatible with other initiatives that could contribute to greater regional solidarity. However, economic gains would likely favor Kenya, which, unlike the other two countries, has substantial exports to its neighbors, and this may constrain the political will needed to proceed. A more promising strategy for monetary integration would be to build on existing monetary unions—the CFA franc zone in western and central Africa and the Common Monetary Area in southern Africa. Masson and Pattillo argue that the goal of a creating a s
Author: William Miles
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
A recent proposal to expand the CFA Franc zone in West Africa would create a currency union that, in terms of population, would rival the Euro. This new currency union would include Nigeria, which would have the largest GDP, and which is also, unlike most other current and proposed members, heavily dependent on oil exports. Synchronization of business cycles across the nations of this new monetary union would be important in assuring its feasibility. In this paper, we apply a recently developed set of tools and find, first, that by some salient measures, the proposed nations in this union exhibit less business cycle coherence than those of the euro zone prior to its launch. Secondly, Nigeria seems especially ill-suited for this new currency. Finally, it does not appear, based on the experience of several nations, that the act of joining the currency union increases business cycle synchronization, contrary to the “Endogenous Optimal Currency Area” hypothesis.
Author: Toyimi Médès Frida Adjalala
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Chapter 1- How well-off or worse-off a country can be by joining a currency union in the presence of structural heterogeneity and idiosyncratic shocks? In light of the proposed creation of a currency union for the Economic Community of the West African States (ECOWAS), we develop a three-region DSGE model to explore the question. We divide the ECOWAS into three regions-Nigeria, the existing WAEMU (West-African Economic Monetary Union), and the rest. Considering two monetary regimes (monetary union and monetary independence), we assess the heterogeneity in the responses to country-specific productivity and terms-of-trade shocks in these two regimes, as well as the costs related to the loss of monetary independence. Our results indicate that shocks hitting a given region generate cross-border spillover effects, whose sign and magnitude depend not only on the nature of the disturbance but also on its origin and on the monetary policy regime considered. Moreover, the propagation of shocks across regions is magnified under the monetary union regime. Shocks hitting Nigeria's economy tend to have a more destabilizing effect on the other regions, especially when they are inside the union. Our results also suggest that the proposed monetary union for the ECOWAS region can potentially lead to welfare improvement for all the members, but the magnitude of the welfare gain is relatively small. Chapter 2- In this chapter, we develop a multi-region New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) of the West-African countries to provide a quantitative analysis of intergovernmental fiscal transfers in the context of the proposed creation of a monetary union. We assess the potential role of fiscal transfers in the stabilization of business cycle fluctuations in the projected monetary union in the presence of idiosyncratic shocks. Starting from a baseline scenario with no fiscal transfers among the regions, we analyze the dynamic and welfare impacts of full and partial fiscal equalization schemes with nominal tax revenue sharing within the union. We consider adverse productivity and term-of-trade shocks. Our simulation results suggest that the transfer mechanism is an efficient stabilizing tool. However, the stabilization property of the fiscal transfer system hinges upon the full or partial nature of the compensation system. Moreover, the ability of the transfer system to absorb the negative effects of idiosyncratic shocks depends not only on the type of shock but also on the size of the region directly affected. Chapter 3- We analyze in this chapter the macroeconomics effects of fiscal policy shocks in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To that end, we use a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, which allows us to assess both the within country and the cross borders spillover effects of the fiscal shocks. For the dynamic analysis, we consider negative country-specific public spending and revenue shocks affecting Nigeria as well as regional public spending and revenue shocks affecting two groups of countries in the area, namely the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and the Rest of ECOWAS (RECOWAS). We provide evidence of considerable cross-country heterogeneity in fiscal spillovers; for instance, spillovers are high for fiscal shocks affecting Nigeria, while the cross-border spillover effects on Nigeria are weak for shocks affecting WAEMU and RECOWAS. Our results also suggest that fiscal policy is very relevant in stimulating real output in each of the ECOWAS countries but limited for the cross-country output stimulation.
